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07-22-2011, 04:44 AM   #106
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QuoteOriginally posted by thibs Quote
DSLRs at stage 6 right now? No way.
In a year or two maybe but now, I really don't think so.
Stage 6 as a new technology. It replaced analog SLRs or analog two lens cameras, whatever you consider the predecessor. It is the current mainstream in the $700+ market. All my acronyms were for digital cameras. Anyway, any mainstream is at stage 6. It may or may not be challenged by competitors being at stage 5. Currently, dSLRs aren't.

Cars with a fuel engine are at stage 6 for a century now...


Last edited by falconeye; 07-22-2011 at 04:53 AM.
07-22-2011, 04:48 AM   #107
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OK if you read it that way !
which means were R&D efforts are put.
07-22-2011, 05:08 AM   #108
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QuoteOriginally posted by Zygonyx Quote
OK if you read it that way !
which means were R&D efforts are put.
R&D efforts go into stage 5. But this stage is currently empty in the camera market. So, it is split between 6 (SLRs) and 2 (mirrorless).

And it doesn't matter. Because the big money goes into silicon foundries where it doesn't matter if sensors go into SLRs or mirrorless cameras.

Also, the big money for EVFs may eventually come from 3D glasses (with embedded HD screens), a current stage 1 technology
07-22-2011, 05:12 AM   #109
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Stage 6 as a new technology. It replaced analog SLRs or analog two lens cameras, whatever you consider the predecessor. It is the current mainstream in the $700+ market. All my acronyms were for digital cameras. Anyway, any mainstream is at stage 6. It may or may not be challenged by competitors being at stage 5. Currently, dSLRs aren't.

Cars with a fuel engine are at stage 6 for a century now...
OK, got it, that way

07-22-2011, 06:55 AM   #110
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QuoteOriginally posted by RioRico Quote
Ah, yes, the demise of the (d)SLR. A sturdy prediction.
I remember it well. The prediction of demise, that is.
(d)SLRs have been reportedly near-extinct for quite awhile.
Just like the Xian tEotW (the End of the World) is near.
Why, tEotW has been near for almost 2 millennia now.
A key difference in end of world predictions and camera market share predictions is the former is almost always based on silly dogma or superstitions, where as the latter is based on market share growth data as well as simple common sense. By common sense I mean, if a smaller camera can do 99% of what a larger camera can do, then which will most people choose? True, some people like huge cameras, but I've found those people are the minority. Outside of AF tracking speed (something I personally never use) and an insignificant IQ gap, there is nothing a DSLR offers that the E-P3 or Panasonic G3 doesn't. The Sony NEX-7 will take it up another notch and should simply out perform a good number of DSLR's in a much more compact body.

I still enjoy DSLR's and I hope they never go away, and I don't think they ever will, but if you don't think CSC's will outsell them in the very near future (probably as soon as Canikon joins the game) then you have your head buried in the sand.
07-22-2011, 07:05 AM   #111
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QuoteOriginally posted by Zygonyx Quote
I would put SLR at stage 4, if it were that prism hasn't yet been successfully challenged by EVF
I think you over estimate the importance of an optical view finder. To those of us that have used SLR's for 15+ years sure they are important, but people upgrading from P&S's don't care one iota about them. Besides, I already prefer high quality EVF's like in the Panasonic GH2 over entry level pentamirror DSLR view finders. Sony supposedly has a 3million dot OLED view finder coming soon that should challenge even high quality prism DSLR's...at least for Sony's sake it better because they've decided to stop producing optical view finders in their DSLR's. Which is a shame, the OVF in the A900 is a sight to behold.
07-22-2011, 07:15 AM   #112
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Yes, i agree, it is real a shame from the inheritant of Minolta to drop the prism and even accelerate this trend...
But new generations don't even care / know about that.
07-22-2011, 07:45 AM   #113
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hmmm.... nobody here thinks like me

Im thinking (out loud here). Lots of people want a comfortable DSLR body with interchangable lenses, this will last a very long time (imo).

Now... the interesting part is, how will it look inside?

Just because mirrorles and EVF's are coming on strong, it doesnt have to mean it will be restricted to small bodys and new mounts/lenses. It will in the begining, as it has, but soon enough, the "old" DSLR body will incorporate these things. This is already happening. There will be a market for DSLR bodies for a very long time, regardless of the inside techs.

07-22-2011, 07:56 AM   #114
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QuoteOriginally posted by Art Vandelay II Quote
but people upgrading from P&S's don't care one iota about them.
That's strange... I upgraded from a point and shoot (Fuji s9500) and I loved when I finally was able to experience the joys of a OVF. Finally freed from the shitty EVF's, where you can NEVER get enough detail.

Let me say something crazy: Maybe different people prefer different things?


QuoteOriginally posted by Art Vandelay II Quote
Besides, I already prefer high quality EVF's like in the Panasonic GH2 over entry level pentamirror DSLR view finders.
I had the NEX thingy, it just doesn't work for me. There's way more pixels on the screen then the abovementiones s9500, but it still didn't cut it. Even the pentamirror's are better imo. I even prefer the OVF of my Olympus 2020c, and that's not even through the lens. For me the NEX sounds, feels, looks and handles like a clumsey point and shoot. I sold it.

You can't get a higher resolution and more realtime, then the actual image.

I would have loved my K5 to come without liveview and screen. It's only there to make the camera more expensive and thus make more profit for Pentax.
07-22-2011, 07:58 AM   #115
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QuoteOriginally posted by the swede Quote
hmmm.... nobody here thinks like me

Im thinking (out loud here). Lots of people want a comfortable DSLR body with interchangable lenses, this will last a very long time (imo).

Now... the interesting part is, how will it look inside?

Just because mirrorles and EVF's are coming on strong, it doesnt have to mean it will be restricted to small bodys and new mounts/lenses. It will in the begining, as it has, but soon enough, the "old" DSLR body will incorporate these things. This is already happening. There will be a market for DSLR bodies for a very long time, regardless of the inside techs.
Yes, il seems that the future Sony A77 will match your thoughts,
a EVIL and translucent DSLR, without prism :

A77 : un monstre Sony de 24 mégapixels | Gizmodo
07-22-2011, 08:11 AM   #116
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
Let me say something crazy: Maybe different people prefer different things?
I've never thought otherwise. I should have said "most people upgrading from P&S's simply don't care about OVF's" instead of implying all people don't, but I thought that was obvious. How many times have you handed your DSLR over to someone and the first thing they ask is how do I turn the screen on? In my experience almost every single time. Even after I tell them to "look through the little window" most still prefer to go back to live view mode.

QuoteQuote:
I had the NEX thingy, it just doesn't work for me. There's way more pixels on the screen then the abovementiones s9500, but it still didn't cut it.
What NEX thingy are you speaking of? There aren't any EVF's available for the NEX system.
07-22-2011, 08:44 AM   #117
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
[5] Unexpectedly, the new technology breaks through backed by new and now convincing products, outperforming the old technology.
Well I think that K-5 is for Pentax the stage 5 DSLR camera. Outperforming every other camera before. So how is it going on from here?
07-22-2011, 08:34 PM   #118
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QuoteOriginally posted by Art Vandelay II Quote
By common sense I mean, if a smaller camera can do 99% of what a larger camera can do, then which will most people choose?
The biggest hit SLR's ever took was AF point and shoots in 35mm.

In fact, Olympus stopped making SLR's and became the Sylus Epic brand for over a decade.

Many people will simply not buy a small camera. I have been in the store numerous times when the guy with larger hands who likes to drive a big car says this.

MILC will dominate at the expense of DSLR, but they will not all be small because they can. You're extrapolating a single consumer preference as being inevitable which is neither the history of consumer products in general, and certainly not the history of camera sales and design...ever.

QuoteOriginally posted by Art Vandelay II Quote
DSLR offers that the E-P3 or Panasonic G3 doesn't
Legacy glass of superior quality without the need for digital correction
Much fast AF on top models, especially in low-light.
And the OVF with the 100% dynamic range that by definition an EVF can never duplicate.

QuoteOriginally posted by Art Vandelay II Quote
How many times have you handed your DSLR over to someone and the first thing they ask is how do I turn the screen on? In my experience almost every single time. Even after I tell them to "look through the little window" most still prefer to go back to live view mode.
Absolutely never. In fact, I get get the opposite reaction. Today at a kid's birthday party I handed my DSLR K-x to someone who looked through the VF instantly (duh!) and took a few Auto AF shots and exclaimed on this screaming hot, sunny day by the pool with all the glare, how nice it was to be able to SEE the action. There are big disadvantages to using a rear LCD that a VF overcomes in a moment.

And most times with zooms people have commented how much easier it is to use the VF rather than the rear LCD. This is particularly true for those used to P&S's that have stepped zooms where the focus flitters for a second. This is an area where on the current mirrorless crop you definitely see video lag compared to an OVF.

I have never, in dozens of times handing my camera over, had someone ask for the LiveView LCD instead. Not once. And that's with 22,000+ shots on my K-x alone on 3 continents. I think you are deliberately over-egaggerating both the the size factor in consumer preference and the ingrained use of the rear LCD to justify your ongoing M43 stance.
07-23-2011, 01:03 AM   #119
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It is a fact that people react according to their own experience and knowledge.
In my opinion, regarding the public/masses in a whole, there is less dissmiss for OVF than there is for "embarassing and complex" SLR.
Hence the succes of Sony's NEX, looking even more simple to use than the Panasonic and the Olympus' first m43.
Now it will be interesting to check after the Pentax Q sales to see if public is so aware of the sensor size, or if he just prefers body's compacity, with (much) more buttons than expected and vintage look ...
But the main limitation is actually price, the Q will not hit anything serious if it stays to that much too high pre-sale price tag...
07-23-2011, 04:41 AM   #120
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QuoteOriginally posted by Art Vandelay II Quote
I've never thought otherwise. I should have said "most people upgrading from P&S's simply don't care about OVF's" instead of implying all people don't, but I thought that was obvious. How many times have you handed your DSLR over to someone and the first thing they ask is how do I turn the screen on? In my experience almost every single time. Even after I tell them to "look through the little window" most still prefer to go back to live view mode.
.
I think live view is an acquired taste and most people use it because it is the only option on their camera (cell phone, point and shoot). At the same time, most people who are interested in more expensive cameras (500 dollars and up) have no problem at all composing using a viewfinder and many prefer it that way.

I personally hate live view, even when it is well implemented. I have a hard enough time fighting camera shake when I hold my arms in, control my breathing and have the camera up to my eye. When I have a camera where I can see the live view, I shake like crazy and no amount of shake reduction can fight it. The only place I use it is on tripod shots where I am manual focusing.
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