[Winder]

I think the market is going to shift down. We are already seeing it to some degree. APS-C mirror-less is going to be a strong market.

I think if Pentax wants to make a statement with a new mirror-less system it needs to be FF or APS-H. Pentax needs to step out of the APS-C and separate itself from Nikon and Sony who are all using the exact same sensor. If the camera is well designed and well thought out it can be a big seller. Look at what Fuji did with the X100. Fuji is in worse shape than Pentax when you look at market share, user base, marketing and brand awareness. But they brought a really good camera to market and became the hottest thing in the industry.

Samsung might be the company to do it. They are aggressive and willing to think outside the box. Their body road map (which is much better than what Pentax shows us) has a high grade camera above the NX20. While Samsung says they have no intention of producing the 36mm x 36mm sensor in a MF mirror-less body, the fact that they made a prototype means that someone (who has some authority) at Samsung is looking at producing something along those lines.

I realize BSI sensors are the new tech right now and cameras like the Q and V1 showcase that new technology, but in the end they are not very appealing to people like me. When the heat issues for BSI sensors is solved and they can move up to 4/3 sized sensors I think Olympus will be very appealing. If Olympus can continue to produce lenses like the 12mm f/2 and the 45mm f/1.8 they might get some of my business again.

[baro-nite]

I think if Pentax wants to make a statement with a new mirror-less system it needs to be FF or APS-H.

That's the kind of system that would probably get me to jump into mirrorless. Not necessarily as my main system, but so I could make use of a couple of classic MC and M lenses I have. I'm itching to get my Rokkor 1:1.2 58mm onto a digital body, but this is not so tempting on µ4/3 or even APS-C. I await developments ...

[Rondec]

That's in interesting observation if it were true.

Currently (for kits in Germany), Mirrorless starts just below 300€ (E-PL1, NX100) while dSLR starts just below 400€ (A290, A390, 1000D, 1100D, D3000, E-450).

Going a bit up to more recent models like the 12-14MP D3100, A380 or K-r, it is 450€ for dSLR. But a NEX-3 is only 350€ and a NEX-5 is 400€.
Here are two prices from the same source, both for the the stabilized standard kit:
- Sony NEX5KB schwarz 18-55mm EU-Ware Digitalkamera mit Wechselobjektiv | redcoon Deutschland
- Nikon D3100 KIT 18-55 VR SLR Kamera + AF-S DX 18-55 VR | redcoon Deutschland
You really much too heavily rely on Amazon to compare prices. The NEX-5 is cheaper than the D3100 wherever the deal is serious.

And 480€ already buys you a NEX-C3 which is featuring the same great sensor as the K-5. In a dSLR, it costs at least 630€ (D5100, A580).

Again, all prices incl. a lens.


So, in summary, mirrorless already today is 100€ cheaper in the low end, and 150€ cheaper in the 16MP league. The prices may be more similiar if mirrorless must include a good EVF. However, the very similiar NEX-7 with EVF again is 200€ less than the A77 w/o OVF. So, even that's going to change soon. dSLR (excluding the A33) in the Sub-500€ region is already weak today.

Therefore, I disagree with what you said.
But where I agree is that the masses haven't realized yet that mirrorless is a viable alternative to dSLRs. That's going to change soon though...


Disclaimer:
I am member of the "APSC dSLR will die sooner than later" club

Just to defend myself a little bit, I live in United States and prices on Amazon are generally quite competitive with anyone else out there for the US Market. I did check B and H and prices on the NEX 5 was the same there, while the D3100 price was higher. I chose D3100 to NEX 5 comparison, primarily because (as far as I know), they use the same sensor. The difference is in the shell put around that sensor.

I am sure that you are correct that the market will shift over time, the question is how quickly it will happen. I feel like it will happen fastest in Japan and slowest in the United States (where people don't crave tiny things nearly as much), but certainly if prices shift that strongly in favor mirrorless, that will drive people towards it.

[Aristophanes]

I agree completely. Everything APS-C and below it will ultimately become mirrorless. It's perfectly logical if you think a bit about it.

Sales data says otherwise.

Sales data says that APS-C DSLR's are selling like gangbusters. Yes, they are giving up room to mirrorless, but they have a solid decade installed user base advantage over any mirrorless mounts. The legacy glass at full registration distance is phenomenal. A great many pros shoot APS-C.

The APS-C DSLR lens sales and commensurate user base will have HUGE inertia for a very long time. It has a comfortable form factor and an OVF which many will be loathe to give up.

Most importantly, DSLR's are priced right. FF would have to drop about 5-fold in production costs to get the same advantage. In fact, the average FF camera is actually increasing in price due to scarcity. It's 5+ years minimum before there's that much change to get FF prices anywhere near APS-C.

The real trend in mirrorless is everything *below* APS-C. M43. The Q. Nikon's new thingy. We'll see what Canon does.

I walk through a tourist area filled with cruise ship people everyday, young and old, and in old I mean as in old from the days of SLR glory, and the dominant visible camera is the bridge camera, followed by a DSLR, and then way down in visibility, a mirrorless camera.

[Winder]

I think Canon knows that EVIL will sell very well, but Canon is not going to gain market share by bringing one to market and the R&D money is better spent some where else. Canon knows that by producing an EVIL camera they will cannibalize their own APS-C DSLR sales. Canon will eventually bring one to market when they have perfected the technology and they see sales of their Rebel type cameras starting to be effected by competition. I think most EVIL cameras sold so far have gone to people looking for a second/smaller body. EVIL will eventually be the entry level (high volume) camera and it will be APS-C simply because the high volume of sales will help keep sensor costs down.

[uccemebug]

It's 5+ years minimum before there's that much change to get FF prices anywhere near APS-C.

So you don't think much of the rumour of a $2000 "FF" Canon coming in ~15 months?

I walk through a tourist area filled with cruise ship people everyday, young and old, and in old I mean as in old from the days of SLR glory, and the dominant visible camera is the bridge camera, followed by a DSLR, and then way down in visibility, a mirrorless camera.

I think it's interesting that the mirrorless bodies have exploded in Japan but not in other markets. Maybe it's the onset of a long-term difference in tastes - like way full bodied SUV's are everywhere to be seen in N. America while (tall-body) subcompacts & now hybrids rule Japan.

[Aristophanes]

So you don't think much of the rumour of a $2000 "FF" Canon coming in ~15 months?

It's possible that Canon will drop APS-H and benchmark a $2,000 FF "entry-level" body. That would be closer to a street price I'd expect. Take a cue from any f/4 lens announcements.

And 15 months is a long time.

But even at $2,000 body alone that's a huge price point above street for any APS-C DSLR, the latter of which may have even greater cost recoveries in the same time span. We'll have to see what the Nikon D300s replacement price come in at. I feel an accordion song coming on.

I think it's interesting that the mirrorless bodies have exploded in Japan but not in other markets.

I see mirrorless around and my local Henry's dealer says they sell "OK", but not burning down the doors to get them sales. Heck! Panasonic probably knows this which is why their supply is constrained. The last thing Panasonic wants to do is choke the channel. In BG HDTV Panasonic is trying to position itself above Samsung and LG (shhh...it's not working) and they seem to have that same approach with cameras and even vacuum cleaners, I've noticed.

It's hard to compete with all-new tech against sunk cost DSLR's selling for $399 at Father's Day. People buy what their friends have and what is spec and what is advertised the most. I go into my local Future Shop and see all the DSLR's and mirrorless lined up and frankly, the size difference is not that great. It's not a deal breaker when seen all in a row. People still have a pretty conservative vision of what "real camera" is.

Japan is an exception, but I think people confuse the issue of replacement with supplement. It's not an either or argument. DSLR and MILC will likely be side-by-side for a considerable time. What even Pantax may want is for you to buy 2 systems, just like people used to have an SLR and an RF. That was a sales strategy for Canon, Olympus, Yashica, and Nikon for a long time, and oddly enough, for Pentax when they went to the 645 and 67 systems.

I see that history repeating itself.

[bobmaxja]

APS-C is very popular in in Montreal. Many many peoples moving from P&S to APS-C . I am a member of a Photo club and we have 20 new members that join . When I go to our lkargest Photo store , peoples are in line to get a salespersons to get advice in buying APS-C. Very few FF

[falconeye]

Just to defend myself a little bit, I live in United States and prices on Amazon are generally quite competitive with anyone else out there for the US Market.

It would be strange but maybe, the price difference in EU is more in favour of mirrorless than in the US. In EU at least, mirrorless has a price advantage between 100€ and 200€, they generally sell 20-25% below the price of an equally specced dSLR (the dSLR would be faster fps/AF.C though).

Some say that mirrorless is strongest in Japan and weakest in US. Maybe, this is true and EU is sitting in the middle.

Nevertheless, acoording to Bloomberg: "The NEX series introduced last year helped Sony’s share in the worldwide SLR market rise to about 15 percent in the year ended March 31 from 10 percent a year earlier, said Hirofumi Otsuru, a Tokyo-based spokesman."

This is a bit I found about worldwide market share.

I fear, APSC SLR sales won't stay strong. At least not in the entry-level segment.

[Ubuntu_user]

It's possible that Canon will drop APS-H and benchmark a $2,000 FF "entry-level" body. That would be closer to a street price I'd expect. Take a cue from any f/4 lens announcements.

And 15 months is a long time.

If Pentax would beat Canon to it, and release a FF body for sub $2,000, say within the next 5 months, I think they might sell quite a few. Actually a lot.

[Ubuntu_user]

We almost hit that price point with the Sony A850...

I'd still like to find a used A850, but they seem to be rarer than unobtanium.

There's been quite a few selling on eBay that are Remanufactured/refurbished that have full one year manufacture warranties and the average going price is ~$1500.

[Aristophanes]

If Pentax would beat Canon to it, and release a FF body for sub $2,000, say within the next 5 months, I think they might sell quite a few. Actually a lot.

Sony tried and died, and they have a larger user base than Pentax.

An FF sensor cost is indeterminate, but could be as high as US$700 per. It's almost impossible to get a ROI on that high a cost without going all pro on features and lenses. Pentax lags in PDAF and has no real FF zooms, the mainstays of an FF market. Cameras over the $1,500 price point could fall into the few hundred units/month. That's not enough market size.

[Asahiflex]

Sony tried and died, and they have a larger user base than Pentax.
Cameras over the $1,500 price point could fall into the few hundred units/month. That's not enough market size.

US$1,500 = EUR 1,113.50, i.e. around the initital European price of the K-5. I'm sure the K-5 sold far more units than just a few hundreds a month
Even $2,000 sounds cheap to me (that's the current 5D MkII price on the 2nd hand market in The Netherlands). Heck, at that price I'll even buy two!

Sony is certainly not a "magical" name on the FF market. For me, and many others, Sony will always be the camcorder maker.

Now where's my Pentax FF?

[fikkser]

US$1,500 = EUR 1,113.50, i.e. around the initital European price of the K-5. I'm sure the K-5 sold far more units than just a few hundreds a month
Even $2,000 sounds cheap to me (that's the current 5D MkII price on the 2nd hand market in The Netherlands). Heck, at that price I'll even buy two!

Sony is certainly not a "magical" name on the FF market. For me, and many others, Sony will always be the camcorder maker.

Now where's my Pentax FF?

I agree.

A pentax ff for 2k $ would sell in Sweden and prolly whole EU. The k-5 is currently priced around 2k here. If they would not over price the camera in EU it will sell, I mean, if it can be sold cheaper in the US...

[Kunzite]

If Pentax would beat Canon to it, and release a FF body for sub $2,000, say within the next 5 months, I think they might sell quite a few. Actually a lot.

A lot, that would mean way less than a $2500 or even $3000 FF Canon.