[Class A]

Much of what Thom Hogan has written points to some deep collaboration between the two companies.

So what? If Hogan wrote the moon is "Nikon designed" would you believe him as well?

Hogan writes (shortly after the part you quoted):

"That doesn't mean that the sensors don't have elements from other makers in them or that they stopped using Sony as a supplier, only that Nikon's sensors appear to now be 100% exclusive to Nikon."

The Sony sensor used in the D7000 is not exclusive to Nikon. It is commonly believed that the K-5 uses the same sensor.
Hogan writes

"When you compare a Nikon DX 14mp or 16mp camera to a competitor's, any difference in image quality is now completely engineered by Nikon. The results so far look very promising, so Nikon is on to something."

He ignores that the K-5 scores higher than the D7000 in the DxOMark tests.

Hogan admits himself that he makes "a modest living off of documenting Nikon products". No wonder that he needs to cater to Nikon fanboys quite a bit. He will be critical as well -- always good to document independence -- but he'd be shooting himself into the foot if his writings didn't let Nikon appear in a good light overall.

I do not believe Hogan when he writes that Pentax is plugging along the same path and is getting the same results. He doesn't even know much what happens at Nikon, let alone other makers. He writes

"Now that Nikon's not driving Sony's sensor production, Pentax is going to be looking for sensors, too. My guess is that they'll be the first Aptina customer."

That's rubbish, as far as I'm concerned.

So much so that Sony completely stopped (albeit and admittedly temporarily) its own use of its own FF sensors for the better part of a yearly revenue cycle.

Pure conjecture.

I have no doubt--because it is the norm in multi-tier industrial design--that Nikon's innovations and original design are not found in Sony's FF sensors that may be shopped to other companies like Pentax.

Please share with us what these alleged innovations and original design ideas by Nikon are supposed to be. Nikon did not invent column parallel A/D. Sony did. Nikon did not introduce the first back-illuminated sensor. Sony did.

Making Nikon a preferred and maybe even exclusive customer, even to the point of dropping your own FF products to see where the retail demand goes, is a business no-brainer for Sony.

I'm not buying it. Sony does not depend on Nikon. In other posts you argue that the FF market is super small, so according to yourself, Sony would not lose much by losing FF sensor sales to Nikon.

It is the other way round, Nikon depends on Sony. To which sensor manufacturer would Nikon turn to if Sony didn't supply them with sensors? How would Nikon keep their cameras competitive if they lost access to Sony sensors?

I'm not claiming any overview or even inside knowledge whatsoever, but the idea that Sony needs to please Nikon seems absurd to me.

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Last edited by Class A; 12-16-2011 at 07:33 AM.

[jsherman999]

...
I'm not claiming any overview or even inside knowledge whatsoever, but the idea that Sony needs to please Nikon seems absurd to me.

They certainly don't need to 'please Nikon' to the degree that they turn down business from other customers, especially one like Ricoh, who is twice the size of Nikon and may have other areas of sensor need beyond FF DSLR.

Thom Hogan, for that matter, has said this:

(from 6/12 communication)
"...As far as I know Sony Imaging is still fighting the battle to release another full frame body in 2012. For Sony Semiconductor its really a matter of whether or not there's a paying customer. ..."

There has never been anything close to definitive out there that shows how much Nikon IP is even in the 'Nikon designed' sensors, much less the great FF sensors Sony is making now. Thom has stated that he doesn't know for sure. One of the more frustrating things for the usually-in-the-know Nikonian fora folks is that they don't know either. I suspect Nikon supplied the specs they wanted for the D700 & D3s, helped with testing using their bodies to make sure everything met those specs, and inked a agreement that those two particular sensor variations shall not be sold to competitors.


.

[Winder]

They probably have a contract concerning with Kodak for delivering the sensor, those are still valid.



Leica's are quite differnt then a MF slr so i doubt we will see CMOS in them next year and the upcoming one.
The cost to develop CMOS sensors is higher then CCD so price wise it doesn't make sense and CCD sensor deliver better photo's at lower ISO.

Then you should let Leica know that. They are the ones who said they would be using a CMOS in the next generation of S2.

And as far as pricing goes: (DALSA)
Which costs less?
One of the biggest misunderstandings about image sensors is cost. Many early CMOS proponents argued that their technology would be vastly cheaper because it could be manufactured on the same high-volume wafer processing lines as mainstream logic and memory devices. Had this assumption proved out, CMOS would be cheaper than CCDs. However, the accommodations required for good electro-optical performance mean that CMOS imagers must be made on specialty, lower volume, optically adapted mixed-signal processes and production lines. This means that CMOS and CCD image sensors do not have significantly different costs when produced in similar volumes and with comparable cosmetic grading and silicon area. Both technologies offer appreciable volumes, but neither has such commanding dominance over the other to establish untouchable economies of scale. CMOS may be less expensive at the system level than CCD, when considering the cost of related circuit functions such as timing generation, biasing, analog signal processing, digitization, interface and feedback circuitry. But it is not cheaper at a component level for the pure image sensor function itself.

[rawr]

Why do people bother citing Thom Hogan about any of this? As if he sits on the Nikon or Sony board of directors or something.

[Kryscendo]

Why do people bother citing Thom Hogan about any of this? As if he is Nostradamus.

Fixed.

[jsherman999]

Why do people bother citing Thom Hogan about any of this? As if he sits on the Nikon or Sony board of directors or something.

He does have some degree of inside knowledge - but not a lot. He has given presentations to Nikon execs in Japan by request, has some links to inner-Nikonia. He also reportedly has some Sony resources, but I suspect he knows less about Sony than Nikon.

A lot of what he writes is simply educated guesswork as well. He's just a better source than your average forum regular, that's about it.

[Winder]

I have never read Hogan's blog, but I see his predictions posted all the time. Who is he and why do people care what he says or thinks?

I see lots of posts here and on other sites referencing his website/blog/opinion. I don't ever remember any of these opinions/predictions coming true.

Can someone post a link to his "greatest hits"? What has been right about?

[falconeye]

Addendum wrt Sony vs. Nikon.

AFAIK, Sony Semiconductor is a rather stand-alone show with their own agenda. I.e., to become the "Intel" in the world of imaging CMOS. And with their design wins ranging from iPhone to D3X, I must say that they are pretty close.

They will do every effort to make sure:

1. Their big customers don't get upset (Apple, Nikon, etc.).
2. Their big rivals don't get customers.
3. To have technical excellence and fair pricing.

The Sony camera division will not be able to really influence this strategy. Nor will Nikon.

IMHO, every else follows by deduction: E.g., they are ready to have sealed lips or tell any story a customer likes to hear to keep him happy, constructing an aura of exclusivity. People like Hogan just play a role in this context. And at the same time, they will try to sell to as many parties as possible.

All of this is my personal speculation only, of course.

[stanleyk]

I have never read Hogan's blog, but I see his predictions posted all the time. Who is he and why do people care what he says or thinks?

I see lots of posts here and on other sites referencing his website/blog/opinion. I don't ever remember any of these opinions/predictions coming true.

Can someone post a link to his "greatest hits"? What has been right about?

Have to agree with you on this one.

[Anvh]

Then you should let Leica know that. They are the ones who said they would be using a CMOS in the next generation of S2.

And as far as pricing goes: (DALSA)
Which costs less?
One of the biggest misunderstandings about image sensors is cost. Many early CMOS proponents argued that their technology would be vastly cheaper because it could be manufactured on the same high-volume wafer processing lines as mainstream logic and memory devices. Had this assumption proved out, CMOS would be cheaper than CCDs. However, the accommodations required for good electro-optical performance mean that CMOS imagers must be made on specialty, lower volume, optically adapted mixed-signal processes and production lines. This means that CMOS and CCD image sensors do not have significantly different costs when produced in similar volumes and with comparable cosmetic grading and silicon area. Both technologies offer appreciable volumes, but neither has such commanding dominance over the other to establish untouchable economies of scale. CMOS may be less expensive at the system level than CCD, when considering the cost of related circuit functions such as timing generation, biasing, analog signal processing, digitization, interface and feedback circuitry. But it is not cheaper at a component level for the pure image sensor function itself.

I believe i said developing costs not production.....
But it doesn't matter really.

[Rondec]

I have never read Hogan's blog, but I see his predictions posted all the time. Who is he and why do people care what he says or thinks?

I see lots of posts here and on other sites referencing his website/blog/opinion. I don't ever remember any of these opinions/predictions coming true.

Can someone post a link to his "greatest hits"? What has been right about?

Here is a link to his predictions for 2011: 2010 Predictions by Thom Hogan.

A fair number did come to pass, although most could be predicted without any particular knowledge. A sequel to the D700? Sure. A sequel to the D90? Absolutely. As to his analysis of the future of each camera company, he doesn't really have that much of an inside track to know where anyone is really headed.

[RioRico]

Don't miss the latest rumor: https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/pentax-news-rumors/168796-mr-kitazawa-sla...-dec-19th.html

FF EVIL? MF EVIL? Are we ready?

[ogl]

it's my idea - FF EVIL from Pentax...He-he

[rawr]

FF EVIL? MF EVIL

Pentax are not afraid to do weird things sometimes. We all know that.

So anything is possible.

[Fontan]

Don't miss the latest rumor: https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/pentax-news-rumors/168796-mr-kitazawa-sla...-dec-19th.html

FF EVIL? MF EVIL? Are we ready?

A far more than a rumor, I say, judging from who is spilling the beans, and who was asking him to spill the beans. This is legit.