Originally posted by rparmar That's not remotely close to true. There has always been a plurality of opinion on what the future will bring, with some imagining things staying much the same, and most imagining immediate doom. I think you're getting your information from the covers of SF mags! (And it still has nothing to do with the current argument.)
I was implying that the folks saying 'mirrorless is the wave of the future, give up K-mount asap to get on the wave fully' are possibly being shortsighted. I admit the air-car example is extreme, but the point is valid.
Sometimes a trend can never really catch on like people assume it will, doomed from the start by fundamental problems, and sometimes it does catch on but much, much later than predicted because certain dependencies that everyone overlooked weren't in place yet, or certain established advantages to the status quo were discounted too heavily.
The last computer mainframe was supposed to be unplugged in 1996, according to
Infoworld.
And in 1992, Edward Yourdon wrote
The Decline and Fall of the American Programmer. Yourdon predicted that within a few years, the computer programming profession in the U.S. would be decimated as most programming jobs would move overseas, where they could be done just as well by much cheaper labor. in 1996, realizing that it hadn't happened yet, he wrote
Rise and Resurrection of the American Programmer, in which he reversed most of his earlier predictions and gave some 'reasons' why it didn't happen. About five years after that, people started predicting it would actually happen again, and companies began to source out programming tasks, jobs, entire projects overseas, from the US. Now ten years after
that, those same companies have pulled a lot of that work back, realizing that some dependencies were not in place, quality and synergy suffered, escalating costs and diminishing the labor savings. They are still outsourcing quite a bit, and this 'total decimation' may still happen, just not as quickly as the CEOs thought 10 years ago, or as Yourdon thought 20 years ago.
Sometimes ideas seem so right, so plausible, that we just push the timeline in our minds. That
might be happening now, with mirrorless.
Quote: Just as well, in that case, that I wrote nothing of the kind.
(But I am reminded of why I have unsubscribed to almost everything on this forum. And now one more thread gone.)
I didn't mean that to be in any way harsh or disrespectful, Robin, sorry if it came across that way.
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