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01-30-2012, 05:56 PM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by Laurentiu Cristofor Quote
How can you tell growth from a single number? It is not clear that Pentax is growing. For example, in 2010, for total digital camera sales, Pentax was shrinking.

Even if 7.5% is better than previously reported DSLR sales numbers in Japan, keep in mind that the DSLR market itself may be shrinking. What we need to compare are percentages of the larger market including mirrorless and SLT cameras.

Pentax is increasing in DSLR sales because the DSLR market has increased significantly.
Percentage of total sales is not interesting as Pentax have taken the focus away from P&S and concentrated on higher marging products (DSLR).

01-30-2012, 06:57 PM   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pl Jensen Quote
Pentax is increasing in DSLR sales because the DSLR market has increased significantly.
Says who? Meaning: reference, please.
01-30-2012, 07:00 PM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pl Jensen Quote
Percentage of total sales is not interesting
Neither is a single percentage of DSLR sales. Or even two percentages without an idea of whether the market is shrinking or growing.
01-30-2012, 08:38 PM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by Laurentiu Cristofor Quote
How can you tell growth from a single number? It is not clear that Pentax is growing. For example, in 2010, for total digital camera sales, Pentax was shrinking.
It's no secret that Pentax has more or less pulled out of the P&S camera market over the past couple of years.

01-31-2012, 02:37 AM   #20
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the link you referred to is about digital camera so it means P&S, bridge, DSRL, SLT, mirrorless, and so on.

last year, Pentax was around 6.5 and the year before, just under the 6%. So yes, Pentax is growing.

QuoteOriginally posted by Laurentiu Cristofor Quote
keep in mind that the DSLR market itself may be shrinking
Not so far, AFAIK.

QuoteOriginally posted by Laurentiu Cristofor Quote
What we need to compare are percentages of the larger market including mirrorless and SLT cameras.
it's a nonsens, because they are different markets with different target.
01-31-2012, 09:40 AM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by aurele Quote
the link you referred to is about digital camera so it means P&S, bridge, DSRL, SLT, mirrorless, and so on.
Exactly.

QuoteOriginally posted by aurele Quote
last year, Pentax was around 6.5 and the year before, just under the 6%. So yes, Pentax is growing.
No, this doesn't say anything about growth - see example at the end.

QuoteOriginally posted by aurele Quote
Not so far, AFAIK.
Olympus and Sony are no longer producing SLRs, so that segment of the DSLR market disappeared - that is a shrinking - whether the DSLR market has grown to compensate that shrinking is not obvious from any of the numbers presented so far in this thread.

QuoteOriginally posted by aurele Quote
it's a nonsens, because they are different markets with different target.
SLTs have different target market than DSLRs? Remember that we're not talking P&S here.

Here is a hypothetical example that shows how the percentages can increase when the market is actually shrinking.

Let's say that Canon and Nikon sell 70 DSLRs, and Olympus, Sony, and Pentax each sell 10.
Pentax has 10% of the DSLR market.

In the next year, Olympus and Sony drop from DSLR market and start selling mirrorless/SLT cameras - they each sell 20 (doesn't really matter how many for the following calculation).
In the shrinked DSLR market, Canon and Nikon sell 60 DSLRs and Pentax sells only 8.
Pentax has 11.7% of the DSLR market.

Get it? Pentax can very well get higher percentages of the market even though the market shrinked and they sold fewer cameras. To prove what is really happening, you need the actual sales numbers from which the percentages were computed, not the percentages. Percentages are useless without volume.
01-31-2012, 10:25 AM   #22
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Pentax overall should be shrinking in the overall market. they have moved almost out of P/S. Profit wise this will be a long term smart move it's a dying category (particularly sub $300) and has very low margins.
Japanese DSLR performance numbers from the last couple of years (including years the others were still in SLR BTW) have shown market share growth. since this is the more profitable end of the business i imagine they have seen profit growth as well.
Also is SLT being measured separately from SLR (as there is only 1 manufacturer) or is it being measured against slr sales)
on unit sales kx and kr have done quite well in japan from previously published posts what makes you think they are swirling the drain in the slr market (which is still by far the biggest market aside from P/S and is the most profitable - Oly may be #1 mirrorless but the camera division continues to lose money
01-31-2012, 10:36 AM   #23
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QuoteOriginally posted by Laurentiu Cristofor Quote
Get it? Pentax can very well get higher percentages of the market even though the market shrinked and they sold fewer cameras. To prove what is really happening, you need the actual sales numbers from which the percentages were computed, not the percentages. Percentages are useless without volume.
Sure, but you claim it proves it. Then you claim we need the numbers. So ? Will you make you mind?

01-31-2012, 11:44 AM   #24
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seems i made a mistake : SLT are regroup with DSLR.

(and i dig into BCN ranking for december, i had to dig to the rank 68 to find the first sony SLT

whatever, Pentax is the third with 7.5 and the other do around 7% all together. Hard to do better when the big two takes 85% of the market.

So far, DSLR market is not shrinking, but compact and bridge is a market that shrinks every year since 2008 AFAIK.

in 2010, Canon gain 1.5 billions selling DSLR...
01-31-2012, 12:17 PM   #25
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pl Jensen Quote
Pentax is increasing in DSLR sales because the DSLR market has increased significantly. (...)
QuoteOriginally posted by Laurentiu Cristofor Quote
Says who? Meaning: reference, please.
Says CIPA (Camera and Imaging Products Association), the Japanese association of camera manufacturers:

http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d-201111_e.pdf

January - November 2011: 14,570,590 bodies shipped (DSLR + SLT + mirrorless), up 26% compared to January - November 2010.
01-31-2012, 12:33 PM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by aurele Quote
seems i made a mistake : SLT are regroup with DSLR.

(and i dig into BCN ranking for december, i had to dig to the rank 68 to find the first sony SLT

whatever, Pentax is the third with 7.5 and the other do around 7% all together. Hard to do better when the big two takes 85% of the market.

So far, DSLR market is not shrinking, but compact and bridge is a market that shrinks every year since 2008 AFAIK.

in 2010, Canon gain 1.5 billions selling DSLR...
thought so. Sony has spent all their focus on Nex and that has to have slowed Alpha products a bit
Oly still has SLR but no-one buys them (the E-5 had so much potential but a 4/3 sensor is a killer for most pros)
01-31-2012, 01:13 PM   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by Laurentiu Cristofor Quote
Get it? Pentax can very well get higher percentages of the market even though the market shrinked and they sold fewer cameras. .
But this is not whats happening. Nikon and Canon, who owns more than 80% of the market, are reporting record production numbers. The DSLR market is increasing something that explain their slow reaction to the mirrorless marked.
01-31-2012, 04:27 PM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by Laurentiu Cristofor Quote
Olympus and Sony are no longer producing SLRs, so that segment of the DSLR market disappeared - that is a shrinking - whether the DSLR market has grown to compensate that shrinking is not obvious from any of the numbers presented so far in this thread.
Yes, they are no longer major competitors in the SLR market. But no, that segment did not disappear. People who buy DSLR's will typically continue to buy and upgrade when necessary. Many Pentaxians, when they have not been satisfied with Pentax, switch brands. They don't just decide to quit. The shrinkage you mention does not make logical sense. Most users here will tell you this.

QuoteOriginally posted by Laurentiu Cristofor Quote
In the shrinked DSLR market, Canon and Nikon sell 60 DSLRs and Pentax sells only 8.
Pentax has 11.7% of the DSLR market.

Get it? Pentax can very well get higher percentages of the market even though the market shrinked and they sold fewer cameras. To prove what is really happening, you need the actual sales numbers from which the percentages were computed, not the percentages. Percentages are useless without volume.
The fact of the matter is, the P&S market has been shrinking. One factor of this is the growing use of camera phones, But the other is: more people are buying DSLR's. You don't have to look at the statistics to know this. I implore you to go to an event such as an auto show, or a sports game, or a convention; Anywhere with several hundred people. Take note of what cameras people are using. In this digital age, anyone with a DSLR can feel like a "photographer". Mirrorless may be a growing market, but I would hardly argue that it is stealing market share from the DSLR.
01-31-2012, 08:25 PM   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by thibs Quote
Sure, but you claim it proves it.
Nope. Never claimed anything. I just questioned conclusions based on incomplete data.

QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Says CIPA (Camera and Imaging Products Association), the Japanese association of camera manufacturers:

http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d-201111_e.pdf

January - November 2011: 14,570,590 bodies shipped (DSLR + SLT + mirrorless), up 26% compared to January - November 2010.
It says something, but not what we are discussing here. That table only gives numbers for DSLR *and* non-DSLR cameras. Maybe the 26% increase is all due to mirrorless cameras - there is no number here to prove otherwise. Also note that the numbers here are for units shipped, not for units sold.

QuoteOriginally posted by Pl Jensen Quote
But this is not whats happening. Nikon and Canon, who owns more than 80% of the market, are reporting record production numbers. The DSLR market is increasing something that explain their slow reaction to the mirrorless marked.
Production numbers and sale numbers are different things. The market size corresponds to sales, not to production. Otherwise Pentax can just gain dominant share by outproducing everyone else.

QuoteOriginally posted by TAP Quote
The shrinkage you mention does not make logical sense.
Your "logical sense" is speculation. Only numbers can tell you what is going on and neither you nor I have them. What you think "is logical" and "makes sense" is only based on anecdotical evidence.

Even if the DSLR market has grown, larger percentages in it don't imply growth either.

Here's a reworked example for that scenario:

As before, let's say that Canon and Nikon sell 70 DSLRs, and Olympus, Sony, and Pentax each sell 10.
Pentax has 10% of the DSLR market.

In the next year, Olympus and Sony drop from DSLR market. In the smaller DSLR market, Canon and Nikon sell 71 DSLRs and Pentax sells only 8.
DSLR market has grown as far as Canon and Nikon are concerned - they are selling 1% more (1 extra over the 70).
Pentax has 10.12% of the DSLR market - up from 10%.
Yet Pentax has sold less.

Moral: Just because Canon and Nikon sell more doesn't mean that Pentax does too.

The only way to see what is clearly going on is to have all the numbers: What DSLRs were sold from year to year and what mirrorless cameras were sold from year to year.

Mirrorless cameras are eating not only from P&S market but also from entry level DSLR market. So, don't be so sure that the DSLR market cannot shrink. Many Canon users have purchased an X100 - that will at least delay the purchase of another camera body. I heard many statements from 5DII owners who said that they haven't used much their SLR since getting the X100. The X100 is not a MILC, but I am mentioning it as an example of another factor that can explain why the DSLR market might shrink.
01-31-2012, 08:31 PM   #30
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QuoteOriginally posted by aurele Quote
seems i made a mistake : SLT are regroup with DSLR.
Note that the ranking you get on BCN when clicking under each category is the same ranking - it bundles all categories - so I don't think they bundled SLTs with DSLRs just because you found an SLT in there.
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