What would you expect from this lens?
AF, size, ED glass, close up focus, performance
How does the lens fit in the Pentax porfolio?
There is currently no 2.8/300 in the Pentax portfolio, but a 5.6/560 would compete against a more versatile combo like the
Sigma 2.8/300 + 2x TC or a Sigma 4.5/500.
Carrying a 4/300 and a 5.6/560 or a Sigma with TC - what would you prefer?
The 300 mm Sigma combo with TC costs approximately $3500. Add a 1.4x TC as well to make it $3750. The weight is 2.4 kg for the lens only.
The Pentax lens should be superior in quality to the Sigma with dedicated 2x converter. DA* ED glass could help. SDM autofocus would be a feature not available from Sigma (for Pentax).
The weight should not exceed the weight of the Sigma combo. Less than 2.5 kg - the 4.5/500 mm from Sigma weighs 3 kg.
Pricewise $3000-4000 would be fair. The Sigma 500 is $5000, but offers f/4.5. Anything more expensive would not fit in the portfolio as the second most expensive lens would be to far away feature and price wise.
I think price and size are key factors here. A 2.8/300 from Penatx would costs $5000+ (check out Canon/Nikon pricing). There is no significant market among Pentax customer base for such an investment - used lenses, 3rd party options are too appealing. Make an appealing long lens and keep the price low at around $3000. Give the lens a nice form factor to separate it enough from 3rd party glass. That's your lens. Think about it, it's a smart move by Pentax.
...and make sure to provide a real good 1.4x TC. The performance of the Sigma with 2x and 1.4x TC should be beaten by a 560 mm plus a 1.4 TC from Pentax.
IQ wise long lenses (not tele designs) like the Leica series (400/560/800) will provide really good image quality in the center with a visible drop towards the edges. An image format smaler than full 35 mm would be of advantage here - APS-C is good.
The Pentax A 5.6/600 is listed at cambridge.com for $5500 - not sure if they really have one - the new design should cut cost to a much lower price tag.
Pentax 5.6/600 A was 3.3 kg while the 2.8/300 A was 3 kg -> the 600 is a 300 with 2x converter build in.
The FA 2.8/300 was just 2.5 kg, so a derived 5.6/600 (actually almnost 10% less focal length) could weigh in at less than 3 kg! The new lens design could make this a lens with less than 2kg weight (compare Leica/Novoflex designs). And the Leica had a huge focusing mechanisms build in that can be replaced with a more lightweight AF engine. Don't make the lens too light, but anything less than 3 kg is great for walking around. The 4/600 FA was close to 7kg!