[Pål Jensen]

The truth is that the DSLR market is shrinking year by year. Of course, one can make a profit out of it, but that market is still shrinking and shrinking... Pentax really needs to think about their future and act, or die trying.

(But I'm still a Pentax fanboy).

Not true. The market is increasing. Both Nikon and Canon set new production records. They have 85% of the market....

[Pål Jensen]

Non-ugly bodies?

I never understood why design plays no rôle at Canikon. Photographers are artists (well, some of them) and therefore, aesthetical pleasure matters.

Agree! The D800 is horrid!

[eddie1960]

It totally and completely defies all logic!
Mirrorless or not has nothing to do with sensor size. APS is the sweetspot (from a performance cost perspective) for sensor size whether the camera is mirrorless or not...

maybe he should be more specific. FF will come down in price and dominate the upper part of the market making tha sale of higher end apsc DSLR difficult at best. Mirrorless will continue to encroach on the entry (and now middle) part of the market making irt difficult to sell APSC DSLR in those categories
So really what is being said is as a DSLR apsc will die (it will certainly continue in the MILC market) So if you want to continue to sell DSLR you will need to be in the FF market Or get out of DSLR and focus on MILC (like OLY did)

[eddie1960]

Not true. The market is increasing. Both Nikon and Canon set new production records. They have 85% of the market....

I agree the market is growing (the overall camera market continues to grow as China and India middle class continues to grow and create demand.

[eddie1960]

Agree! The D800 is horrid!

Actually I kind of like it, but it's no K7 K5 design but functionally it still beats canon for me

[Clavius]

FF will come down in price

Why? This is speculation, at best.

Or get out of DSLR and focus on MILC (like OLY did)

That would suck BIG TIME.


Why would mirrorless APSC eat market of DSLR APSC? I would pay DOUBLE to ensure having an OVF. And so would many MANY others.

[Asahiflex]

It totally and completely defies all logic!
Mirrorless or not has nothing to do with sensor size. APS is the sweetspot (from a performance/cost perspective) for sensor size whether the camera is mirrorless or not...

When I look at my (close) friends, relatives and colleagues, almost no-one of them wants a DSLR now. Three years ago that was different. Now they all want a mirrorless camera. That's the (limited) market research I did.

[Clavius]

When I look at my (close) friends, relatives and colleagues, almost no-one of them wants a DSLR now. Three years ago that was different. Now they all want a mirrorless camera. That's the (limited) market research I did.

Ah, peer pressure... One doesn't belong to the "in-crowd" without adhering to their fashion-requirements.

[gazonk]

Ah, peer pressure... One doesn't belong to the "in-crowd" without adhering to their fashion-requirements.

But it may change from one week to the next if someone releases an APS-C SLR with high enough wow-factor.

[eddie1960]

Why? This is speculation, at best.



That would suck BIG TIME.


Why would mirrorless APSC eat market of DSLR APSC? I would pay DOUBLE to ensure having an OVF. And so would many MANY others.

first - All technology drops in price. ALL technology. right now with no reason to drop the price Canon and Nikon are holding it (and making progressively more profit per unit as time passes). In all the years I spent in electronics retail and since as a purchaser I can't think of a single instance of technology increasing in price. Ignore the D800 announced price as that will drop $300 PDQ to where the market has been. Increased sensor volumes will also drive down pricing

As for MILC eating entry DSLR it's already happening. It would suck I agree you aren't the typical entry shooter though who has never used an OVF or EVF in their lives. they've always shot of an LCD and don't care. the market will continue to grow in MILC at the entry level. For a line up to be truly logical there needs to be a few models at minimum and entry (ie KR )- A mid (what Pentax has been missing since the K200 days) and a higher end (ie K5
If the entry is eroded by MILC from below and the Higher end by FF from above it leave the middle which doesn't even exist at the moment in the lineup
DSLR won't disappear but the writing is on the wall for serious changes in the market. K-01 and Q at least begin to address the Entry (and no matter what some people think I think the K-01 is one of the things that will help save K mount and my lens collection from obsolescence) Certainly next gen KR and K% will be great cameras but the middle is still not there, and nothing is being done to compete where the push from above is coming. If Pentax waits for Nikon and Canon to make the push down before preparing for it they will get slaughtered -and this may well be the year if Canon leaves the 5DII and Nikon leaves the D700 in production and just drop the price. (and i mean leave in production not just sell off existing stocks)
Certainly Canon and Nikon will make this move it's just a matter of time. Getting out there now with a unique offering at a good price beats them to the pucnh and gets the brand established as a competitor. Sony doesn't sell a lot of FF but damn they understand the need for a flagship (they don't sell as many top of the line XBR televisions either but damn that product sells a lot of entry level Sony TV)
Ricoh said in an interview that they felt the DSLR line needed to be 4 models at one point to be truly market competitive. hows this look - K30 (kr) K300 (kr WR) K3 (k5) K1 - or LX1 (FF)

[Clavius]

If the entry is eroded by MILC from below and the Higher end by FF from above it leave the middle which doesn't even exist at the moment in the lineup.

DSLR APSC market being eroded by MILC APSC, that I understand. But being eroded by FF? By a totally different animal? That doesn't make sense. There's high end APS-C and high end FF. Appels and pears.

(and no matter what some people think I think the K-01 is one of the things that will help save K mount and my lens collection from obsolescence)

I doubt the effect of the K-01 and the Q can outweigh the anti-Pentax-campaigns that are going on in threads like this. Only a year ago the K5 was praised into heaven here. Now it seems like it's pretty much worthless, if you have to believe all the FF and EVF threads. Honestly, the people on the Canikon forums are MUCH more positive about Pentax cameras, then the people in here.

I agree though that Ricoh/Pentax has to act soon. But I also understand that they do not disclose every option they're considering, and every option they're developing. That would be extremely stupid. We all agree that Ricoh needs to do a lot of work on Pentax. But realise that that can't be done in under 6 months. Something really good is comming.

Hows this look - K30 (kr) K300 (kr WR) K3 (k5) K1 - or LX1 (FF)

It looks perfectly sweet!

[stanleyk]

The D800 is $3000. I don't know what the new Canon will be priced at. I don't see any downward trend in FF camera prices. I paid $2200 for a new D700 last year so it looks like they are going up to me. I've seen this stuff posted here for over 2 years. Anyday now FF cameras will be less than $2000. Call me skeptical at best. I guess Sony has some that are less expensive but I don't think they are selling well. Sony is a hard company to figure. I kind of got excited about the NEX 7, but then when I looked at the lenses I lost interest. I think this is the big drawback to getting FF business from Canon and Nikon. They just have all the extras and the right lenses. Give Pentax about 2-3 years and they can compete if they want to make the lenses. But for a $2500+ camera you have to have at the very least 35mm F1.4, 50mm 1.4, 85mm F1.4, 24-70mm F2.8 and 70/80-200mm F2.8 or they won't be able to sell them in a large enough quantity to be competitive.

That said, if anyone is interested I will be selling my D700 for less than $2000 when it gets closer to ship date for the D800. I'll even throw in a 50mm F1.4 and 35mm F2.0 (the cheap plastic ones). These lenses are just not going to cut it at 36MP. That's the downside to the D800. The 35mm is a pretty good lens.

[eddie1960]

DSLR APSC market being eroded by MILC APSC, that I understand. But being eroded by FF? By a totally different animal? That doesn't make sense. There's high end APS-C and high end FF. Appels and pears.

- So are MILC and low end APSC - if you are an enthusiast with a couple of grand for a new body and your choice is a $15-1600 apsc or a FF fro a few hundred nmore FF wll bleed of customers, as time goes on that FF will keep coming down from above and squeeze apsc sales - aside from Bodies being sold canikon have little vested in apsc and do little apsc specific lens development. If you want a good lens for your 7d d300 etc it will probably be FX not DX. So when they make the move down with FF they can easily move into thos models with a FF sensor - So now your choice is FF 7d with dated sensor (a step below a 5DIII in features etc) or a 24mp K5 for a hundred or 2 less 2 generations on from that canikon no longer makes any enthusiast apsc just some rebels for entry and have launched a mirrorless system to start replacing that end . where is the apsc dslr in that model. Canikon will drive the market Pentax has to be there first so they are known for it

I doubt the effect of the K-01 and the Q can outweigh the anti-Pentax-campaigns that are going on in threads like this. Only a year ago the K5 was praised into heaven here. Now it seems like it's pretty much worthless, if you have to believe all the FF and EVF threads. Honestly, the people on the Canikon forums are MUCH more positive about Pentax cameras, then the people in here.

I agree though that Ricoh/Pentax has to act soon. But I also understand that they do not disclose every option they're considering, and every option they're developing. That would be extremely stupid. We all agree that Ricoh needs to do a lot of work on Pentax. But realise that that can't be done in under 6 months. Something really good is comming.



It looks perfectly sweet!

I agree if the only info out there is the threads on this forum (which has been the defacto US marketing for Pentax since they themselves do nearly nothing) then it's in Deep Sh*t . If OTOH they actually market the thing i think the impact will be less

the insane whining and bitching about the K-01 and the general level of FF trolldome has driven me nuts (and I would buy a FF at some point and even may buy the K-01)
The majority of posers (not the members here just the high posters) seem to think Pentax should be manufacturing specifically for them. Sorry guys not the way it works your a tiny market.
And I agree Ricoh would be flat out stupid to release info before they are ready to go and that this will take more than 6 months - heck I'm of the opinion that even though Photokina may be the most exciting Pentax Photokina in eons it will just be the tip of the iceberg

[DigiMack]

"Canikon will drive the market Pentax has to be there first so they are known for it"

You nailed it Eddie. Not only is this probably the best Pentax can do just now, but more importantly, it is all they must do.

[eddie1960]

You nailed it Eddie. Not only is this probably the best Pentax can do just now, but more importantly, it is all they must do.

and just tooting WR won't be enough. Every FF made is WR at the moment (well maybe not leica) and they are all mag alloy construction. It needs to be different and offer something the others don't
I'm back to the LX D with interchangeable VF types compact size great build ......and maybe 24mp rather than the 36 mp but at $2000 street price (even if MSRP is $2200 at announcement

this makes lot's of current users happy, and creates a product for other users to lust after and a reason to move.