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02-22-2012, 06:34 AM   #151
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QuoteOriginally posted by bobmaxja Quote
Nobody know if that 30,000 per month is a valid #
Some wishful thinking here?

Meanwhile, I checked it up and it is an official news from an established news agency (The official portal of Malaysian National News Agency (BERNAMA)). So, it is as well documented as such a number can actually get.

Here you go:
-> BERNAMA - Nikon Targets To Produce 30,000 Units Of D800 Per Month

Note: The news is obviously coming from Zakaria Abdul Wahab (Bernama) when participating at a factory tour at Sendai, Japan, where the D800 is assembled. There seem to have been 30 representatives from the media at this tour, so maybe, more sources for this number will emerge.

Face it, the D800 is a 1 billion $ annual revenue for Nikon.

Never again I want to hear the words "niche" and "full frame" together in one sentence

Update:
The source cites Sendai Nikon President Jiro Saito, so I think, it is a trustworthy source. The figure is even detailed down to the daily production plan (one full frame camera every minute 24/7) and there are another 5000 D4 per month (which if produced thrughout the year which I doubt, would be another 300 million $$ business). Including lenses, Nikon's annual full frame business could be worth 3 billion $$. That's worth 3 weeks of iPhone revenue. Not bad at all ...

UPDATE2:

I found an independent source from another tour member, which is more accurate, uses betetr English and includes photos of the event. It vasically confirms the 30,000 figure, but it is meant to be a maximum capacity. OTOH, the D800 sells like hot cake, so they'll likely produce at full capacity and this si what the article confirms (operation resumed full capacity).
-> What goes on inside Nikon's Sendai factory - Crave - CNET Asia


Last edited by falconeye; 02-22-2012 at 07:13 AM.
02-22-2012, 06:45 AM   #152
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QuoteOriginally posted by bobmaxja Quote
Nobody know if that 30,000 per month is a valid #
it's a pretty good guess I would think

In the greater scheme of things that is not such a huge worldwide number Even if only 0.1 % of the world population is a photography customer of some type in a year they would only need to sell to .43% of them a month (or 5.16% of them in a year (and after the first year i would assume their sales will decline somewhat) not an unrealistic number given the 2 most populous countries are rapidly becoming mass consumers with disposable incomes (China and India)
And if you ask any Indian member here Nikon and Canon have a very big presence whereas currently Pentax has little to none so even what meagre competition there is doesn't exist there the way it does elsewhere
02-22-2012, 06:48 AM   #153
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Some wishful thinking here?

Meanwhile, I checked it up and it is an official news from an established news agency (The official portal of Malaysian National News Agency (BERNAMA)). So, it is as well documented as such a number can actually get.

Here you go:
-> BERNAMA - Nikon Targets To Produce 30,000 Units Of D800 Per Month

Note: The news is obviously coming from Zakaria Abdul Wahab (Bernama) when participating at a factory tour at Sendai, Japan, where the D800 is assembled. There seem to have been 30 representatives from the media at this tour, so maybe, more sources for this number will emerge.

Face it, the D800 is a 1 billion $ annual revenue for Nikon.

Never again I want to hear the words "niche" and "full frame" together in one sentence
Pentax could take a niche portion of the FF market and still do quite well. this is only the D800 there are still the D4 and the Canon models in this market
Even assuming Nikon captured 50% of this market with the one model it's still a 2 billion dollar and growing business
If Ricoh dropped 50 million into development of a FF line it could easily have pretty quick payback provided they offered a unique product
02-22-2012, 07:04 AM   #154
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Some wishful thinking here?

Meanwhile, I checked it up and it is an official news from an established news agency (The official portal of Malaysian National News Agency (BERNAMA)). So, it is as well documented as such a number can actually get.

Here you go:
-> BERNAMA - Nikon Targets To Produce 30,000 Units Of D800 Per Month

Note: The news is obviously coming from Zakaria Abdul Wahab (Bernama) when participating at a factory tour at Sendai, Japan, where the D800 is assembled. There seem to have been 30 representatives from the media at this tour, so maybe, more sources for this number will emerge.

Face it, the D800 is a 1 billion $ annual revenue for Nikon.

Never again I want to hear the words "niche" and "full frame" together in one sentence
Some questions...
Does monthly production = monthly sales, or will they wind down production long before they've stopped selling?
Does anyone know the profit margins on a camera such as this?
I wonder what % of sales will be to current Nikonians moving up/replacing vs. new customers from other brands?


Some other data points...

30,000 per month is ~10% of APS-C production
"Nikon have issued a two statements so far concerning the situation at their Thailand factory, which has been in operation for over 20-years and where over 15,000 workers are employed producing around 300,000 camera units per month (D3100, D5100, D7000 and, D300s), along with most of the DX lens range and a few of FX zoom lenses (24-120, 28-300 and, 70-300). The plant is responsible for the production of a vast majority of Nikon D-SLR cameras and accounts for approximately 70% of the total SLR lens production."
Nikon Thailand: Matters go from bad to worse | Pixiq

D70 was produced at a rate of 70,000 per month
"According to the Japanese site digitalcamera.jp, the monthly output is going to be 70,000 units per month - exactly that of the Digital Rebel."
D70 production rate: 70,000 per month: Nikon D90 - D40 / D7000 - D3000 Forum: Digital Photography Review
I'm too lazy to confirm this number, but it's interesting to see how much the dSLR market has grown in less than 10 years.

D700 assembled at same factory with similar staff
"The D700 is assembled at the Nikon Sendai factory...Until recently, the factory employed about 1,200 staff, many part-time workers, and operated a single eight-hour shift per day. However, the unprecedented demand for the D3 and the requirement to open a new production line for the manufacturing of the D700 has brought about changes at Nikon Sendai, with an expansion of the workforce to around 1,600 staff and a significant increase in productivity.

However, by contrast to the Nikon Thailand production facility....Nikon Sendai is still a small operation. The Thailand facility employs over 15,000 people in the production of the D40, D60, D90 and D300 models, with about 60,000 units of the latter being produced per month..."
Magic Lantern Guide, Nikon D700
Magic Lantern Guides: Nikon - Simon Stafford - Google Books

Conventional wisdom used to be that lowered prices would push full-frame into the mainstream; based on the buzz on the Internets, it now sounds like higher prices will LOL!

Anyways, I think that I'm either in the wrong business or am spending my money on too many hobbies, as I can't imagine buying the D800 and lenses as a plaything!

02-22-2012, 07:10 AM   #155
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnmflores Quote
Some questions...
Does monthly production = monthly sales, or will they wind down production long before they've stopped selling?
Does anyone know the profit margins on a camera such as this?
I wonder what % of sales will be to current Nikonians moving up/replacing vs. new customers from other brands?


Some other data points...

30,000 per month is ~10% of APS-C production
"Nikon have issued a two statements so far concerning the situation at their Thailand factory, which has been in operation for over 20-years and where over 15,000 workers are employed producing around 300,000 camera units per month (D3100, D5100, D7000 and, D300s), along with most of the DX lens range and a few of FX zoom lenses (24-120, 28-300 and, 70-300). The plant is responsible for the production of a vast majority of Nikon D-SLR cameras and accounts for approximately 70% of the total SLR lens production."
Nikon Thailand: Matters go from bad to worse | Pixiq

D70 was produced at a rate of 70,000 per month
"According to the Japanese site digitalcamera.jp, the monthly output is going to be 70,000 units per month - exactly that of the Digital Rebel."
D70 production rate: 70,000 per month: Nikon D90 - D40 / D7000 - D3000 Forum: Digital Photography Review
I'm too lazy to confirm this number, but it's interesting to see how much the dSLR market has grown in less than 10 years.

D700 assembled at same factory with similar staff
"The D700 is assembled at the Nikon Sendai factory...Until recently, the factory employed about 1,200 staff, many part-time workers, and operated a single eight-hour shift per day. However, the unprecedented demand for the D3 and the requirement to open a new production line for the manufacturing of the D700 has brought about changes at Nikon Sendai, with an expansion of the workforce to around 1,600 staff and a significant increase in productivity.

However, by contrast to the Nikon Thailand production facility....Nikon Sendai is still a small operation. The Thailand facility employs over 15,000 people in the production of the D40, D60, D90 and D300 models, with about 60,000 units of the latter being produced per month..."
Magic Lantern Guide, Nikon D700
Magic Lantern Guides: Nikon - Simon Stafford - Google Books

Conventional wisdom used to be that lowered prices would push full-frame into the mainstream; based on the buzz on the Internets, it now sounds like higher prices will LOL!

Anyways, I think that I'm either in the wrong business or am spending my money on too many hobbies, as I can't imagine buying the D800 and lenses as a plaything!
I would bet that sensor production will wind down well before the end of life cycle for the camera (unless they are going to all of a sudden shorten the FF life cycle - which is possible)
02-22-2012, 07:17 AM   #156
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnmflores Quote
Some questions...
I am sorry, but boldface postings make me blind.

btw, I already had this ~10% APSC figure in my own posting...

And if you think the cheapest products are the ones making a company fly ... ask the Apple, Mercedes, BMW of this planet. It's quality products which make a company fly. If it is still affordable.
02-22-2012, 07:28 AM   #157
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Thank you Adam and everyone who made this possible!
Great interview and questions!
2012 and 2013 will be two very exciting years for Pentax users
02-22-2012, 07:37 AM   #158
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
I am sorry, but boldface postings make me blind.

btw, I already had this ~10% APSC figure in my own posting...

And if you think the cheapest products are the ones making a company fly ... ask the Apple, Mercedes, BMW of this planet. It's quality products which make a company fly. If it is still affordable.
Sorry about the boldface - I was trying to make it more legible, not less!

And I never said anything about cheap products - I was just re-iterating what many others have postulated about what will make FF mainstream (falling prices). And since you bring up BMW and Mercedes, much of their growth over the last 20 years can be credited with success in the entry-level luxury segment, their A and C-class and 1 and 3 series. They sell more cars now because they moved downmarket, not up.

02-22-2012, 08:09 AM   #159
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Mmm, will Nikon (and Canon) keep the line up as it is or make a D700mk2/ 5Dmk1 remake at lower price.
That would lower the entrance ticket to FF.
I doubt those two want that though.
02-22-2012, 08:28 AM   #160
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Some wishful thinking here?
...
Never again I want to hear the words "niche" and "full frame" together in one sentence
Falk, on the contrary. FF is wishful thinking. And if you live by dreams and wishes, you will certainly be disappointed.

What point are you trying to make? That PRI management is wrong? Why? Only because they dont grant your wishes?

Don't be like a baby. If you are not happy with current Pentax lineup and roadmap, then you can easily make up for that by running 2 systems. It is cheaper than the hypotetic FF Pentax could ever be.

And I'm extremely happy with with the K-5. Being with Pentax for 5 years now, I like it precisely as it is. Burning money on meaningless FF me-too projects would not be wise.
02-22-2012, 08:54 AM   #161
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QuoteOriginally posted by elho_cid Quote
F


Don't be like a baby. If you are not happy with current Pentax lineup and roadmap, then you can easily make up for that by running 2 systems. It is cheaper than the hypotetic FF Pentax could ever be.

How is it cheaper to run 2 separate systems for anyone. you end up duplicating lenses (the real investment BTW) on both systems

If Pentax had a FF you could have FF 12-24,24-70,70-200 in zooms and 24,31,43,77,100 in primes that cover both your apsc and your ff bodies (right now some of those would be sigma of course but if Pentax launched ff you's likely see the same offering level in pentax brand. extra investment to go FF the cost of the body

Even if you ran FF as a zoom system and Pentax apsc as a prime system you's still duplicate some items because surely on the FF you's want a fast normal and fast portrait lens

running 2 brands will always cost more than running 1 brand.

While i am also happy with most of the current offerings I also think they need to offer a broader range to grow the brand (both in lenses and bodies)
If they launch a Ff it will have customers and attract customers. whetheryou want one is not the issue. it's not a bespoke manufacturer making items for you specifically. they have to consider a broad market as part of the growth strategy. the last few years have seen a strategy that could only end in them shrinking out of existance. Even though in the scheme of things Ricoh didn't pay much for the brand I'm sure they didn't do it to watch the brand slowly shrink out of existance on their dime. They bought it because they saw an opportunity to grow it into a serious rival for the big 2 This will mean they will introduce product that isn't for you. that's ok they will also introduce product that is for you

Falk BTW is hardly whining all the time for FF he is however providing lot's of well informed information for what is and isn't possible withing both areas. Unlike many he presents reasoned and thought out arguments for different things and has analyzed and provided feedback to Pentax on Problems so they can be corrected

I'm sure he could defend himself of course (but may choose not too given the churlish tone of your post)
02-22-2012, 09:40 AM   #162
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QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
How is it cheaper to run 2 separate systems for anyone. you end up duplicating lenses (the real investment BTW) on both systems
Nope, no duplications in our home. There is 300/4, 50/1,8, 100/2,8 macro and 17-55/2,8 in canon mount but no such lens for Pentax (even if Pentax equivalent exists and are easily as good if not better). When I want to use these lenses I just borrow the Canon from my girlfriend.
Different lenses are needed for the FF system and for the crop system.
Provided I decide I need the FF badly, I just buy some lens that would actually benefit from it. Like 35/1,4 or 24/1,4. Because what's the point of having FF if you attach a zoom to it, rough equivalent to what can be done with 16-50 on crop.
02-22-2012, 10:20 AM   #163
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QuoteOriginally posted by elho_cid Quote
What point are you trying to make? That PRI management is wrong?
...
Don't be like a baby.
Did you just call me a baby?

The point I am making is that FF no longer can be considered a niche market -- since it now creates the bulk of profit for the camera makers (and above I showed that this can't be negated). Any conclusions derived from this fact are up to you and anybody else.
02-22-2012, 10:50 AM   #164
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
The point I am making is that FF no longer can be considered a niche market -- since it now creates the bulk of profit for the camera makers
Does anyone have firm knowledge of FF and APS-C sensors prices used in the currently produced cameras? I read somewhere in the threads that 645D sensor costs about $4000 per unit. Knowing the prices it would be easier to draw any conclusions on how profitable a FF camera could be.
02-22-2012, 11:17 AM   #165
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
The point I am making is that FF no longer can be considered a niche market -- since it now creates the bulk of profit for the camera makers (and above I showed that this can't be negated). Any conclusions derived from this fact are up to you and anybody else.
Don't really see that. All these figures are uncorroborated and depend on estimates. The truth is we simply do not know. We don't know how much Nikon pays Sony for its sensors, among other things, nor how many cameras they actually make as distinct from could make when run at full capacity, nor what their cost of sales is. It's all just guesswork.

In any case, there is a paradox here. If you run a huge operation you need huge sales to service it. The more upmarket you go, the more your sales drop off and the less you can afford to run the same huge operation. Pretty soon you cannot afford to run it at all. At this point, you then start losing many of the props which keep your high-end products selling - worldwide sales and ubiquitous marketing, servicing centres, R&D, excellent distribution, a professional support network that's taken decades to build, etc. So the further upmarket you go, the less far upmarket you can afford to go. The bulk of sales continues to be in the broad middle of the market. A big operation which doesn't have a strong presence there is in trouble regardless of what they do elsewhere. The analogy with Merc and BMW models made by another poster is a good example here. So while FF may or may not be niche, it is far from #1 priority and short of FF becoming the mainstream middle because FF sensors fall to 10 bucks each so that will continue.
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