Originally posted by Pål Jensen The facts speak for themselves; FF has about 5% of the DSLR market peaking at about 7% after the release of a new model. In adiition Nikon has owned this market segment for about 50 years and Canon for about 10...
Those "facts" are established based on historical pricing levels, which are falling. The $8,000 price point has moved down to a ~$6,000 price point, and the content of the cameras at the $3,000 price point (give or take) is being increased in value, which is also effectively a price reduction. The old low-priced FF models were often de-contented relative to the flagship models, with lower build quality and autofocus (5D series) or with less than 100% viewfinders (D700). Now, with the D800, we're seeing a game changer, and I doubt those "facts" of historical market share will continue to predict the future.
As for Pentax, the facts speak for themselves. Their lack of a FF dSLR has caused them to lose customers to Nikon and Canon, with their market share falling by half. They have lost third-party lens support from Zeiss, Voigtlander and Tamron, and have reduced support from Sigma, who releases only the most common lenses in K-mount. If they continue to drag their feet on making a FF dSLR, their market share will continue to decline, and Ricoh's investment in Pentax will not produce the growth in the camera industry that they hoped for. Pentax's refusal to compete in the portion of the dSLR market with the least competition and the highest margins is the business equivalent of
hara-kiri. More "me too" APS-C dSLRs are not going to
grow the Pentax dSLR business, especially as new FF models undermine the price/value proposition of high-end APS-C dSLRs. Upgraders will continue to leave the Pentax brand absent a FF dSLR to upgrade
to.
Originally posted by Pål Jensen It is questionable whether Pentax can sell an FF camera at $2000. My guess is that if Pentax makes an FF camera it will be a luxury machine at around $3000 targeted primarily at existing Pentax users with the neccessary lenses.
It is
much more questionable whether Pentax can continue to sell APS-C dSLRs at a price point close to 2/3 that of a D800, with much less to offer in terms of viewfinder, image quality, and lens selection. Those "existing Pentax users with the necessary lenses"
need to be "targeted" with a FF dSLR,
now, before there isn't much of a Pentax user base left.