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02-29-2012, 08:56 AM   #331
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
True, but APSC-equivalent FF glass (read slower) and a more compact body for FF can fill the gap w/o a need for APSC.
But then you'll have to figure out how to make that FF body smaller first. No need to speak in the past if. My pockets are already full of could-be's and what-if's.


QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
So, the extinction of the APSC-SLR market which I predict will eventually not leave a gap because it is filled easily.
Filled with what exactly? A mirrorless APSC? Most don't want that. The FF body you speak of? Lots can't afford it.

Most cameramakers actually want to sell their cameras. They're not going to say to people who can only afford APSC DSLRS: "Save up, and cough up the money for a FF or ****-off!"

02-29-2012, 09:14 AM   #332
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
But then you'll have to figure out how to make that FF body smaller first. No need to speak in the past if. My pockets are already full of could-be's and what-if's.



Filled with what exactly? A mirrorless APSC? Most don't want that. The FF body you speak of? Lots can't afford it.

Most cameramakers actually want to sell their cameras. They're not going to say to people who can only afford APSC DSLRS: "Save up, and cough up the money for a FF or ****-off!"
Your assumption is FF sensors will keep the price high. the nature of technology is price spiral downwards while quality improves. If they wanted too at this point Canon could release a stripped down Ff with the 5dII sensor for $2000 without even trying (or just leave it on the market at reduced price) same for Nikon with the D700. If that happens then the upper level apsc will struggle for customers because it is only recently (K5) that they caught up to older FF on DR and ISO performance. I think mirrorless apsc could actually do well (and nex and fuji sales would indicate that) Entry mid apsc will last longer but at some point the market will not be as viable with the heavy sensor R&D and body improvements going to FF - it's at this point up to canikon when this happens but it will happen
the window of opportunity for Pentax to carve a Niche here rather than end up a me too also ran is closing and they need to address it (and i believe they plan too - just look at the PF interview and watch his body language when FF comes up - he knows something he is not at liberty to discuss and is happy about it and does a poor job of hiding that fact.

Yep camera makers want to sell cameras. they also want to come up with reasons for you to buy a new one. Digital has spoiled them on body sales. People replace there bodies far more frequently now than they did in film days and the model has changed. It is much more like the electronics industry now where they have to entice you into buying more frequently (heck I shot my last film camera for 10 years and could have shot it longer but I bought a ds and then a K10, and then a K7 and an oly at one point - all in under 10 years)
the same will be true of Nikon Canon and other brand users FF will drive sales (and sensor cost will decline as volumes increase and tech improves - for Nikon they are really only into their second generation of FF with the new models this year and look at the jump in tech. keeping the older tech around for more entry pricing is a norm for these guys too.
02-29-2012, 09:32 AM   #333
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QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
just look at the PF interview and watch his body language when FF comes up - he knows something he is not at liberty to discuss and is happy about it and does a poor job of hiding that fact.
Perhaps he's incredibly devious and wanted to communicate 'yes' while still toeing the company line.
02-29-2012, 09:38 AM   #334
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QuoteOriginally posted by ElJamoquio Quote
Perhaps he's incredibly devious and wanted to communicate 'yes' while still toeing the company line.
Exactly, but in general I recognize that body language from sales - that was when I'd Start writing up the sale (assumed close)

02-29-2012, 10:20 AM   #335
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
I just had a chat with a photo interest. He's a D90 and wants to upgrade. While visiting me, he visited our flagship store to get some idea where to go. Then, we had a large discussion with friends in a similiar situation about the outcome.

Basic result: He won't upgrade buying another dSLR. He's only one lens and thinks SLR is not versatile enough for the bulk. He seriously looked at Panasonic µFT. But was a bit turned away by the size of zoom lenses. So, he didn't bite yet.

But what became clear from the discussion: the bulk of current dSLR owners (the ones who upgraded from P&S because of their bad image quality) are hunting for compact system cameras now, with more compact lenses than current FourThirds offers actually.
[...]
Of course, a break-thru technology like column-parallel embedded A/D converters (D7000, K-5) or lightning-fast AF could sell another generation APSC bodies. But I don't see it. Esp. as the APSC MP race (24MP+) will highlight the superiority of FF glass.
That's a sample of one

They will make and sell more than one generation of APS-C DSLRs.

QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
Your assumption is FF sensors will keep the price high. the nature of technology is price spiral downwards while quality improves. If they wanted too at this point Canon could release a stripped down Ff with the 5dII sensor for $2000 without even trying (or just leave it on the market at reduced price) same for Nikon with the D700.
If. The reality is slightly different; D800 - 2829 euro vs. 2599 for the D700. Where is that downwards spiral?
02-29-2012, 10:52 AM   #336
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
That's a sample of one

They will make and sell more than one generation of APS-C DSLRs.


If. The reality is slightly different; D800 - 2829 euro vs. 2599 for the D700. Where is that downwards spiral?
D700 is well below that already Europe is just lagging on the price as usual D800 is still a preorder item that is like saying the K5 is $1500

How much was a 5 D originally and how much does the superior 5DII sell for now, How much will the 5DII sell for if it continues as a model when the 5DIII is on the open market and selling for 2800 or less .same for the D700 versus the D800 once it is on the market.

I spent 25 years selling stuff and the only thing i can say for certain after that time is Technology goes down in price and new "better" Tech comes out

it's a different category but as an example the first flat panel i ever sold was a 42" 480P plasma for close to $20,000 I can now buy an infinitely superior 42" 1080P plasma for sub $500 in a period of a little over 11 years

The arc will apply to just about any Technology you care to examine cameras included

Features and design flow down and new better comes out at the higher end. FF will flow down most certainly. when the price drop happens depends on 2 things -
#1 is how long Canikon choose to preserve their very large margins on FF - this is not in dealer control since they still get crappy margins at all levels on bodies
#2 is when a competitor gets serious about opening the market and that is down to Sony and Pentax - Sony has 3 models coming, certainly one will be a value price, none will be D4 1D level. Pentax cannot come in with 3 models, but they need to respond to what is an increasing market (if Nikon is planning the huge # of D800 the sensor #s leaked say then this market is definitely worth chasing
02-29-2012, 11:19 AM   #337
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
The reality is slightly different; D800 - 2829 euro vs. 2599 for the D700. Where is that downwards spiral?
There is a rumour that the D700 will stay in production for quite sometime, going to to MSRP of about US$2,299.

Which will in turn forced used D700's down considerably.

And the D800 will likely fall to the current $2,599 price.

It will be up to Sony and Canon to move that yardstick, but they have no incentive to compete on price (well....Sony might, but they would prefer not to. I bet they rue the day they did not keep the Minolta brand).
02-29-2012, 12:05 PM   #338
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QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
Your assumption is FF sensors will keep the price high. the nature of technology is price spiral downwards while quality improves. If they wanted too at this point Canon could release a stripped down Ff with the 5dII sensor for $2000 without even trying (or just leave it on the market at reduced price) same for Nikon with the D700. .
This has not happened to sensors. Big sensors are still expensive and will probably continue to be so.
Stripping down a DSLR won't save any significant cost. It is the sensor that cost money and the features are basically software on a chip.

02-29-2012, 12:07 PM   #339
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
This has not happened to sensors. Big sensors are still expensive and will probably continue to be so.
Stripping down a DSLR won't save any significant cost. It is the sensor that cost money and the features are basically software on a chip.
D3x sensor cost no more than $500.

.
02-29-2012, 01:55 PM   #340
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QuoteOriginally posted by Asahiflex Quote

Anyone thinking that large, heavy zooms are the way to go needs to have his brains checked.
I'll gladly relieve your burden by accepting that 250-600.
02-29-2012, 01:59 PM   #341
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The current D700 price is irrelevant; you should stick with the launching prices if you want to plot a trend. Sorry, there's no downwards spiral.
02-29-2012, 02:09 PM   #342
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
There is a rumour that the D700 will stay in production for quite sometime, going to to MSRP of about US$2,299.

Which will in turn forced used D700's down considerably.

And the D800 will likely fall to the current $2,599 price.

It will be up to Sony and Canon to move that yardstick, but they have no incentive to compete on price (well....Sony might, but they would prefer not to. I bet they rue the day they did not keep the Minolta brand).
I haven't seen that $2,599 anywhere thus far. I haven't been looking though but I'm curious. Where did you see that price?

Last edited by bossa; 02-29-2012 at 05:19 PM.
02-29-2012, 04:59 PM   #343
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The price of the D800 will stay stable thruout 2012.

Not because prices are kept high but because supply cannot satisfy the current demand. Nikon France stated to be overwhelmed by demand. As soon as FF production is moved out of Japan it will eventually change. But not in 2012.
02-29-2012, 05:21 PM   #344
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QuoteOriginally posted by bossa Quote
I haven't seen that $2,599 anywhere thus far. I haven't been looking though but I'm curious. Where did you see that price?
The MSRP launch price is $2,999 like the D700.

In about 24 months it will fall.

The D700 may fall before that.
02-29-2012, 05:22 PM   #345
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Pentax really need to step up to the plate and soon.. ..we all know that. I can imagine a FF K-5 type camera with the extra improvements we all expect but that sensor will be hard to beat. A 24mpx FF could well be enough but the game has definitely changed with the D800.
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