[Chex]

I see this as where Pentax SHOULD have already jumped in.. that $1800-$2100 price point for a modest feature set WR'd FF camera. Say 24MP PRIME III CPU dual SDXC card slots.. even with the AF of the K-5 and 180th/sec Flash Sync it would be a good starting point.. But by now Pentax is looking at the mary-go-round wondering when you should get on, instead of just jumping in and grabbing on while the ride is still fun.. by the time they get on, it will have stopped spinning. Way to go fat kid...

[johnmflores]

"So today Nikon is actively soliciting Coolpix users to upgrade to CX (Nikon 1). CX users will be solicited to upgrade to DX. And DX users, well, it's only natural to upgrade them to FX. But if the entry FX body is 3x the price of the top DX body, that's a pretty big money leap. Entry FX can't be more than 2x the top DX price if it is to encourage upgrading. Indeed, it probably should be 1.5x (which would be about US$1800). That puts us right at the likely D400 pricing, which is one reason why I think the D400 could go either way (DX or FX)."

The weakness in this theory is that the user will likely need new lenses with every step, unless they choose to buy FX lenses with their DX camera. Some might say that this just means more lens sales for Nikon, and that will hold true for some. But it also opens up the possibility of users leaving Nikon as they take their next step because there's little carryover from level to leve.

The K-01 approach is interesting in this regard - users can step up from P&S and then if they want to step up to the next level (i.e., K-5) they can use their lenses still...

[Chex]

Well, that is not really so for the DX to FX upgrade as the mount is the same and all the FF options can still shoot in DX crop mode, I'm also sure that it won't be long and there will be a CX to DX/FX mount adapter released by someone, opening the option of those lens lines to CX shooters... so the only ones who IMO would look at the lens line up and may want to opt out are people going from a Coolpix to a V1/J1.. before they have any lens investments.

[thibs]

The weakness in this theory is that the user will likely need new lenses with every step, unless they choose to buy FX lenses with their DX camera.

But is there that many DX lenses? Apart the usual standard zooms, not many AFACT.
DA lensed though are mostly APS designs.

A Nikon user car simply replace its standard zooms and WA to go FX.
A Pentax user, ... well it's more complex At the same time, APS optimized lenses made the Pentax APS system a lot more consistent IMO.

Can't have it all...

[monochrome]

Reaction to Ricoh's $2.2 Billion cash hoard? Kill Pentax now BEFORE they become a real threat?

[jsherman999]

Reaction to Ricoh's $2.2 Billion cash hoard? Kill Pentax now BEFORE they become a real threat?

Who wants to attempt this killing?

Sony? Sony probably would like to Have Ricoh on it's side, as they share a common enemy (Canon) and only compete in enthusiast cameras, which is a relatively small part of each of their businesses. And Ricoh has a potentially voliminous non-camera sensor need that Sony may like to fill.

Or Nikon? They probably wouldn't be able to enlist Sony in this murder beyond holding them to whatever exclusivity agreement Sony signed that covers Nikon's IP. Would Nikon take on this killing alone? Ricoh says, "Bring it on, little guy."

Canon? Maybe.


.

[Raffwal]

The dogs bark, but the caravan goes on.

Ricoh may be big in copiers, but in cameras Pentax/Ricoh are so miniscule that I bet the big players don't give a rat's ass about them.

[maxfield_photo]

I get the feeling that neither Canon, Nikon, nor Sony lose any sleep at night over Pentax, maybe Canon a little more now because Ricoh owns them. Think about it, if Pentax were gone, from whom would they steal their ideas?

[monochrome]

Who wants to attempt this killing?

Sony? Sony probably would like to Have Ricoh on it's side, as they share a common enemy (Canon) and only compete in enthusiast cameras, which is a relatively small part of each of their businesses. And Ricoh has a potentially voliminous non-camera sensor need that Sony may like to fill.

Or Nikon? They probably wouldn't be able to enlist Sony in this murder beyond holding them to whatever exclusivity agreement Sony signed that covers Nikon's IP. Would Nikon take on this killing alone? Ricoh says, "Bring it on, little guy."

Canon? Maybe.


.

Ricoh may be big in copiers, but in cameras Pentax/Ricoh are so miniscule that I bet the big players don't give a rat's ass about them.

I get the feeling that neither Canon, Nikon, nor Sony lose any sleep at night over Pentax, maybe Canon a little more now because Ricoh owns them. Think about it, if Pentax were gone, from whom would they steal their ideas?

My bad. Momentary brain freeze. Thank you for restoring my sense.

I need to stick to my original (I know nothing) thesis that Ricoh has a plan and we will be happy.

I believe they want Canon and we will see shocking (to us) announcements, releases and developments over the next twelve months. I believe Ricoh bought Pentax to become a major competitor, they know the task ahead and they have the wherewithal to stay in for the long term.

Just a feeling, confirmed in confidence but not in detail. I bet I'm right

[jsherman999]

The weakness in this theory is that the user will likely need new lenses with every step, unless they choose to buy FX lenses with their DX camera. Some might say that this just means more lens sales for Nikon, and that will hold true for some. But it also opens up the possibility of users leaving Nikon as they take their next step because there's little carryover from level to leve.

The K-01 approach is interesting in this regard - users can step up from P&S and then if they want to step up to the next level (i.e., K-5) they can use their lenses still...

The DX lenses will all mount and shoot just fine on any Nikon FF camera - some will even be usable in FX mode, much like some of our DA's would be usable on FF. The ones that aren't can be shot in DX mode until the FF buyer transitions to a full FX lens lineup (if yhey want to.) With the D800 giving 15+ MP in DX mode, with better high-ISO performance in crop mode than the D7000 natively, DX mode as a transition or even a partial destiniation is pretty attractive.

Even before the 36MP D800, the upgrade path was always filled with folks. Besides the kit lenses, Nikon has the following 'DX' lenses, and you saw these on craigslist and ebay quite a bit, especially that 16-85:

'DX' rated lenses (besides different 18-55, 55-200 kit lenses):

10.5 mm f/2.8G ED AF DX Fisheye
35mm f/1.8G AF-S DX NIKKOR
40 mm f/2.8G DX Micro-Nikkor
10–24 mm f/3.5-4.5G ED-IF AF-S DX
12–24 mm f/4G ED-IF AF-S DX
17–55 mm f/2.8G ED-IF AF-S DX[1]
18–135 mm f/3.5-5.6G ED-IF AF-S DX
16–85 mm f/3.5-5.6G ED AF-S VR DX
18-200 mm f/3.5-5.6G ED-IF AF-S VR DX
55-300 mm f/4-5.6G ED AF-S VR DX
85mm f/3.5 micro ED AF-S VR DX

Here are the current Nikon FX lenses:

AF-S 14-24mm f/2.8G IF-ED
AF-S 16-35mm f/4G ED VR
AF-S 17-35mm f/2.8D IF-ED
AF-S 24mm f/1.4G ED
AF-S 24-70mm f/2.8G IF-ED
AF-S 24-85mm f/3.5-4.5G IF-ED
AF-S 24-120mm f/3.5-5.6G VR IF-ED
AF-S 24-120mm f/4G ED VR
AF-S 28-70mm f/2.8D IF-ED
AF-S 35mm f/1.4G
AF-S 50mm f/1.4G
AF-S 50mm f/1.8G
AF-S 18-200mm f/3.5-5.6G DX VR IF-ED
AF-S 18-200mm f/3.5-5.6G ED-IF VR DX II
AF-S 28-300mm f/3.5-5.6G ED VR
AF-S 70-200mm f/2.8G VR IF-ED
AF-S 70-200mm f/2.8G ED VR II
AF-S 80-200mm f/2.8D ED
AF-S 70-300mm f/4.5-5.6G VR IF-ED
AF-S 85mm f/1.4G
AF-S 85mm f/1.8G
AF-S 200mm f/2G VR IF-ED
AF-S 200mm f/2G ED VR II
AF-I 300mm f/2.8D IF-ED†
AF-S 300mm f/2.8D IF-ED II
AF-S 300mm f/2.8G VR IF-ED
AF-S 300mm f/2.8G ED VR II
AF-S 300mm f/4D IF-ED
AF-S 200-400mm f/4G VR IF-ED
AF-S 200-400mm f/4G ED VR II
AF-I 400mm f/2.8D IF-ED†
AF-S 400mm f/2.8D IF-ED†
AF-S 400mm f/2.8D IF-ED II
AF-S 400mm f/2.8G VR IF-ED
AF-I 500mm f/4D IF-ED´†
AF-S 500mm f/4D IF-ED†
AF-S 500mm f/4D IF-ED II
AF-S 500mm f/4G VR IF-ED
AF-I 600mm f/4D IF-ED†
AF-S 600mm f/4D IF-ED†
AF-S 600mm f/4D IF-ED II
AF-S 600mm f/4G VR IF-ED
AF-S Micro 60mm f/2.8G IF-ED
AF-S Micro 105mm f/2.8G VR IF-ED

In addition to that there are a ton of FX lenses not still in production that are being sold new old-stock, or used, like the 20 f/2.8D, 24 f/2.8D, 28 f/2.8D, 35 f/2D, 180 f/2.8 AF-N, 18-135, 18-105, etc

[jsherman999]

I believe they want Canon and we will see shocking (to us) announcements, releases and developments over the next twelve months. I believe Ricoh bought Pentax to become a major competitor, they know the task ahead and they have the wherewithal to stay in for the long term.

Just a feeling, confirmed in confidence but not in detail. I bet I'm right

I'll bet you're right too.

[falconeye]

'DX' rated lenses ... 11
Here are the current Nikon FX lenses ... 44

That's a bold sign that Nikon never gave up on 35mm and always considered APS-C to be the temporary solution which it is.

It would be an ideal moment for them to kill APSC SLRs. If ...

If ... they would have had the vision to create a sub-SLR peer which is good enoigh to become a new home for all who don't want to go FX. Like the NEX, SLT or µFT systems and unlike the CX mount.

OTOH, what's if the D400 becomes an APSC mirrorless?

-- just a thought experiment, folks! --- the rumor mill says otherwise. But the thought experiment shows how fragile the APSC SLR segment really is.

[Kunzite]

If the D400 becomes an APSC mirrorless I'll start looking in the skies, for the flying pigs

[Chex]

I could see the D400 staying top end APS-C DSLR.. but possibly the D7200 level or equivalent being mirrorless. That is if the D400 doesn't slide to FF to make a better break of their marketing system D### = FF D#### = APS-C

[rparmar]

Some of these arguments are ignoring a basic reality: Nikon & Canon make their money from re-selling the same but slightly "improved" camera to the same buyers, over and over. They want people to buy new bodies, buy new lenses etc., since each means more profit for them. What possible incentive do they have in reducing the range of products they offer by scrapping APS-C? None.

The same is definitely true of Olympus and Panasonic in the MFT market. And other manufacturers besides. There is ample evidence that Pentax is pursuing this same objective by introducing two new systems in the same year. They now have multiple incompatible (or only semi-compatible) lines... exactly what they want.