Originally posted by falconeye I see a plot here. And it is thickening rapidly.
Ignoring Aristophanes, Sony seems to launch a 24MP FF chip this summer, at a price closer to cost than any previous offer, allowing FF cameras to break into and crush the enthusiast level APSC dSLR domain. The $1500 level seems plausible for what will become the new enthusiast level SLR segment.
Sony A99 and Nikon D600 would use it and if this is true, I even imagine Pentax to have joined the party. I mean, how on earth could they have ignored Sony's offer for the chip knowing that it would dominate the future 1500$ segment?
This would explain too why we haven't yet seen the D400 or A99 launch: because the APSC D400 was cancelled and A99 was delayed for the chip to become ready.
I believe this is the plot. But be warned as I may be partial: After all I predicted all this more than two years ago...
There is considerable rumour to this, but I think the pricing may be off. I see it closer to $2,000 and for Nikon it will replace the D700 where the D800 appeared not to be the replacement.
You don't go from $2,500 to $1,500 overnight. You edge down to maintain margins and amortize investment.
Unknown if Pentax is part of the buying group, but Nikon certainly is. In this market, Pentax would be residual capacity, and that may mean a 2103 actual release. Make no mistake, this is Nikon's market. They drive huge profits for Sony Industrial at a time when Sony is in trouble. Sony will not jeopardize their supply to Nikon nor allow Pentax to price war demand.
Lenses are going to be very expensive. Used D700's will be very cheap relatively. Watch for fire sales.
K-5 feature level cameras can (and should) drop to the $US$1,250-$1,500 price points. If Pentax was smart, they'd also drop DA lens prices as well. Some of the manoeuvring around Pentax pricing strategies may be aimed at new models and an industry shift. If sensors go towards more commodity pricing, then lenses will be controlled for the opposite. Sensors are not proprietary; lens mounts are.
What Pentax also needs to do is get an articulating screen on the K-01.
Consumers would be faced with about a $600 difference between APS-C full feature and FF mostly full feature. That's a pretty hefty difference. Remember: a major goal of camera manufacturers is for you to buy TWO bodies, at least. Smallish APS-C and the big dog FF.