Originally posted by ElJamoquio I don't think this is a very likely scenario.
Pentax Rep, to retailer 1: "OK, you can't advertise the 16-50 for less than $1100"
Retailer 1: "I'll take this opportunity to raise my advertised price to $1499 in an incredibly cost-sensitive marketplace!"
Maybe I was not very clear. This is the scenario I was describing:
Product cycles started by Hoya were coming to their end
Ricoh makes decisions to continue certain prodcuts
Ricoh negotiates with major retailers, informs them of UPP as means of protecting authorized dealer margins.
Retailers make decision to order the new stock and Pentax informs them when the new stock will be shipped.
Retailers realize they have very few pre-Ricoh Pentax stock and the new stock is coming only (in May/June?). They make decision to raise the price above MAP to keep Pentax products in stock till the new stock arrives. It's better to carry stock even at a higher price than have nothing in stock at all sometimes.
Note the after-UPP prices as you have said yourself are the MSRP prices and Pentax-proper was selling at those prices for some time even before UPP (with some exceptions).
I do think this could be a very likely scenario, though I'm sure there could be many more "better" scenarios explaining anything. My point is: we do not possess any of the information RIcoh and Pentax have, we don't even have the information retailers have. + most of us are simply not qualified enough to judge.
I know it is like that in my field, you have to study for a long time (~15 years) to be able to do it well (and even then some can't) and yet there are always vocal "experts" on online forums with no education other than reading a few wikipedia articles, who always know better than all those who have invested great effort in their education. I have found the same in other fields as well, you can only be successful (qualified) if you work hard and invest a lot of time in it.
It''s fine to take guesses and discussing it, though I'm always amazed when people are adamant about their opinion being obviously the only correct one. And note in this situation these opinions are based on very little information.
Originally posted by ElJamoquio This scenario had to then be repeated, independently, for every retailer I'm aware of that sells on the internet, basically simultaneously.
1. This is not that many retailers
2. it is not really that much surprising the old stock (if we assume the scenario I suggested) depletes at the same time
3. the prices went up to MSRP, not some random number. It is natural for retailers to look at this number. another possible value could have been MAP (assuming it is different), though seeing the big 3 retailers opting for MSRP other retailers could have just followed suite. It shouldn't take much time to do that either. They all knew when the change was coming (hell even we knew!) and just watched what prices will be set by Amazon, BH, Adorama
Still seems plausible to me.
Originally posted by ElJamoquio Raising your prices to $1450 instead of $1499 would triple your sales volume and increase your profit.
Not necessarily. Plus you can not sell more than you have in stock anyway. I do not understand why you and almost everybody else chooses to ignore this. If you know you only have 5 16-50s in stock, the next batch is coming in June and you were selling 100 16-50s per month at old prices you have all the reasons to increase the price to make max profit in the 2 months hiatus.
Of course we have no hard facts on this, so it is just a speculation as good or as bad as other ones expressed in this thread. The only difference being I do not jump to conclusions.
In science we say that a good theory should (in addition to possessing several other qualities) predict something which can be tested. My way of thinking helped me predict the price drop even though my hypotheses were pure guesses and may be still wrong.
Basically the way I see it, the discussion in that long UPP thread split in 2 possible opinions based on peoples assumptions and beliefs
1. One was the belief that Pentax is doing wrong and is going to die. Conclusion implied was to ditch Pentax and move to another brand
2. The other (and I belong to this one) predicted the unavoidable price drop as for Pentax future, it is unclear and depends on many things we just don't know.
Originally posted by ElJamoquio I can think of no 'reasonable' circumstances under which I would've approved the UPP, had I been in a position to do so. I can think of no 'reasonable' circumstances under which I would implement ANY new wide-ranging policy on April 1.
There are many things I couldn't have thought of and yet they exist. I have learned to be careful and not to assume something is impossible just because I can not imagine it. I'm not a professional CEO, nor do I possess the information Ricoh has. Nevertheless the reasoning for UPP given by monochrome (I do not remember exactly if it was him, maybe many other people said it) seem meaningful. (I'm talking about the reasoning that UPP reinforces dealers will to carry the brand and ensures dealers make profit.)
As for April 1, as the specific date, I don't see it as a significant issue, my guess is not many people care if it is April 1 or April 2, especially in the business world.
Originally posted by ElJamoquio If that makes me 'arrogant' in your eyes then we really have nothing further to debate.
Actually I never thought your posts were arrogant and I was not referring to you. On the contrary. At least you make an effort to see other people points and do not call names be it another poster or Pentax management.