[Uluru]

no they don't

80% of the marketplace is the k300/k30 level. we are not the majority of the market.

It's not what you want, or what you think that market should be, but what major forces that mould the market are trying to do. And they are changing it rapidly, changing people's perceptions and buying needs and steering them their way.

Nikon and Canon are likely to have 3 different FF DSLR bodies in two months, plus a few older ones on shelves.
Pentax is forced to accept the game and play really hard. The gauntlet is thrown right in their face and they simply cannot ignore it.
No more silly excuses.

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Last edited by Uluru; 07-26-2012 at 05:51 AM.

[eddie1960]

Tell that to Nikon, and Canon, who are likely to have 3 different FF DSLR bodies in two months.
In other words, I think Frank Lumo was spot on.

they both have the entry level covered and generate unit volume there. and have between them almost the entire market.. they can have a 7 camera line and it works for them.
not the same thing for pentax, they need to grow before they can support that large of a lineup. I don't see 2FF in the line with no entry camera. that would be commercial suicide. - the majority of the market is the 2 entry bodies and though they may be lower margin they will more than make up for that on volume

[RonHendriks1966]

Two FF bodies make better sense, even if they use the same sensor.

no they don't

80% of the marketplace is the k300/k30 level. we are not the majority of the market.

yes it does:

give the K-01 a big brother:

[rawr]

Oh no.

Now I expect RiceHigh to pick up that photoshopped K-11 FF and say it is real, then 1001NoisyCameras will repeat that, then photorumors, then petapixel etc....

[RonHendriks1966]

Oh no.

Now I expect RiceHigh to pick up that photoshopped K-11 FF and say it is real, then 1001NoisyCameras will repeat that, then photorumors, then petapixel etc....

Well we turned over and over again all available information during the last 18 months, so there is no new thing to chew on, but old stuff we allready know and know that it has no value.

[eddie1960]

yes it does:

give the K-01 a big brother:

a big brother for the K-01 will not likely initially be a FF but a more enthusiast oriented apsc. but you never know......

[rawr]

I want a FF Q.

[K6-III]

If the follow up to the K-01 either has a viewfinder or full frame, I'll probably get it. Both, and I'll run after it, especially if they can make focus peaking work during video recording (like Sony)

[cali92rs]

I want a FF Q.

That would pretty much be the sensor glued directly to the back of a lens, lol.

[Timothy]

Clearly what Pentax really needs is a FF Optio VS20.

[LamyTax]

My prediction for photokina:

New mirrorless APS-C in Pentax design OR K300, entry level, APS-C, a camera with only one wheel, picture modes, no WR and L-kit-lens.
K5n with swivel screen
K3 with APS-C sensor, either high fps or high resolution (24mpix), improved body design ("pro" level), maybe improved sealing and dual card slots.
New 645D successor and lowered price for the current MF body.
Newly developed AF, as the K30's AF is clearly just an updated K5 version.

[eddie1960]

My prediction for photokina:

New mirrorless APS-C in Pentax design OR K300 APS-C, a camera with only one wheel, picture modes, no WR and L-kit-lens.
K5n with swivel screen
K3 with APS-C sensor, either high fps or high resolution (24mpix), maybe improved sealing and dual card slots.
New 645D successor and lowered price for the current MF body.
Newly developed AF, as the K30's AF is clearly just an updated K5 version.

that would give them 4 bodies (and still no FF)
first one is almost definite likely badge K300
second is possible but doubtful
3rd is almost definite
645d replacement i'm 50/50 on this year, a lower price is possible though

I still think there will be a FF digital for next spring badged as the LXD (it may bear little resemblance to an LX though) as it is the 60th anniversary and the LX has a history as the anniversary model

[LamyTax]

that would give them 4 bodies (and still no FF)
first one is almost definite likely badge K300
second is possible but doubtful
3rd is almost definite
645d replacement i'm 50/50 on this year, a lower price is possible though

I still think there will be a FF digital for next spring badged as the LXD (it may bear little resemblance to an LX though) as it is the 60th anniversary and the LX has a history as the anniversary model

I know many people dread swivel screens, but it's highly useful for many occasions.

My thinking is this: Ricoh wants to place Pentax up there with Canon and Nikon. For that, they have to focus on two things:
Attack the mass market (EOS 1100D and the like) and place cameras in the professional field. The mid range, that is photo enthusiasts, is already going well thanks to the K5 and K30. Sure, the K5 needs an update. Better AF, better sensor, better filming capabilities. However, I doubt they had the time to develop a new FF body with the transition going on. APS-C is something they can do already. And it's a format that still works well even for professional use. That's the K3. It can also serve as a testbed for the high end market. Think of the 7D, it's been adapted by a lot of professionals. If the K3 goes well, they have a timeframe of 1-2 years to develop a FF body and a suitable lens lineup. They basically have all the neccessary skills for that. Old lens calculations can be used, the knowledge from the 645D (much larger sensor in a really well built body) can be adapted.

For the successor of the 645D I expect no less than 50mpix. Lowering the price for the current one will possibly draw people away from the high-res FF-bodies (D800 and the like), while the >50mpix version hedges against Leica's S2 (possible successor in the pipeline) and similar high end cameras.

As for the AF, the K30 really just has an upgraded K5-AF. I doubt the newly released cameras (except for a K300 maybe) will have anything similar to it. It has to be a lot better. Ricoh certainly knows the critique of the Pentax AF, so maybe they've let them develop something truly awesome.

The system seems to make more and more sense to me with Ricoh. The long lens will be a major competition on the amateur/sem-pro market for Canon/Nikon IF it is affordable, compact, lightweight and good.

Enough of the speculation, for now .

[cali92rs]

My prediction for Photokina:
A good amount of people will absolutely love what Pentax has done because they feel Pentax can do no wrong.
An equal amount of people will hate what Pentax has done because they are pessimists at heart and nothing could ever satisfy them.
And the rest won't really care too much because they can't afford a new camera or lens anyway, and the brand etched into the front of the camera doesnt really make too much of a difference when looking at a beautiful picture.

[Asahiflex]

My prediction: Pentax will have a booth at the Photokina. The press room is in the bathrooms. To show their progress in the FF field they will show off the MZ-D aka the K-1 which still has the 6MP Philips Sensor.