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01-31-2008, 11:30 PM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by kenyee Quote
R&D (i.e., you have to try to leapfrog competitors). If the top 3 competitors have a technology, you have to be at least thinking about how to do something similar or better (though not necessarily bringing it to market).
This is totally wrong thinking. Me-too does not work. What works for Canon and Nikon may not work for Pentax (or Sony). By your rationale, why didn't Pentax come out with D2Hs clone which came out 3 years ago?

You have to know your own strength and weakness. Blindly following what others are doing could prove fatal. And how can you leapfrog if you just follow? And I surely don't understand your last statement "though not necessarily bringing it to market".... you mean just have R&D on it and put it under the desk?

QuoteQuote:
The market determines what Pentax will have to do to make money...
Exactly, the market says FF is a niche market, and Pentax won't be able to make any money from FF at this point.

01-31-2008, 11:34 PM   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by Chocolar Quote
I think from a marketing pov, it makes sense that Sony has a FF dslr, they need to create attention to their dslr brand so their other cameras can get some sales; I'm sure Sony marketing know this camera won't sell a bunch, it's a strategic move imo.
To be honest, I don't think I would feel too comfortable if I were in the Sony camp. Sony has proclaimed the 10% minimum market share target for this year. And it says that they may have to reconsider their position if this is not achieved. Given that this is quite a modest target with their 5 models lineup by the end of this year, but it shows Sony is not afraid to pull out if things do not look good; judging the way they closed down Clie.
02-01-2008, 07:59 AM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
Exactly, the market says FF is a niche market, and Pentax won't be able to make any money from FF at this point.
*at this point* is exactly what I mean. 2-3 years from now?
That's a reasonable design goal point for Samsung since they just developed their first CMOS sensor...which then means it should be in R&D now.
It's not a "me too" thing. A large part of marketing is trying to figure out what customers want and how to be profitable doing it. I don't disagree that APS-C is where it's at now, just like 6mpix was where everyone was 2yrs ago.

And as for the comment about the D2H, that was truly a niche market, bleeding edge, let's see what we can do, etc. The issue is that FF is going to get pushed down from that "niche" market into the enthusiast dSLR market within the next 2 years. Whatever the next 40D and D300 are will probably have a FF sensor, and that will be what the K1D is aimed at...not the D3/5D (but it'll have features from both lines since Pentax doesn't have a niche ultra high end line).

We should revisit this thread in 2 yrs and see who's right
02-01-2008, 09:52 AM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by kenyee Quote
The issue is that FF is going to get pushed down from that "niche" market into the enthusiast dSLR market within the next 2 years. Whatever the next 40D and D300 are will probably have a FF sensor
This is the part I disagree, so we'll see who's right in the next two years
My prediction is that the next upgrade for both 40D and D300 - 50D and D400 will continue to use APS-C sensor. They are still no where near the limit of APS-C development.

02-01-2008, 10:13 AM   #20
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QuoteOriginally posted by Marcus Quote
For what?

Who is going to go Sony from Can or Nik? Just for resolution? Just for FF?

You'd have to absolutely LOVE FF and more megapixels to switch to... Sony. And forgo all the benefits of Can or Nik's systems to switch to... Sony.

If 5Ds sit on the shelf and collect dust, then what will this do? Especially looking at how expensive lenses are for Sony mount?

Don't get it wrong, this will probably be an excellent camera from Sony. But just a trophy. I don't think we'll see an upgrade for about 2 or 3 years though. Can't see another upgrade in 18 months, like with usual DSLRs.

I don't get how Pentax should piggyback a camera that sits on a shelf. Pentax needs to chase a moving target.
Hmm, Zeiss glass, superb ergonomics, SR/SSS. Why not go Sony? Especially over Canon. Frankly SR is such a boon that I got out of CaNikon stuff over it. I'd go Sony if I needed longer lenses (They've got a much better lineup than Pentax does past 77mm).
02-01-2008, 10:16 AM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
To be honest, I don't think I would feel too comfortable if I were in the Sony camp. Sony has proclaimed the 10% minimum market share target for this year. And it says that they may have to reconsider their position if this is not achieved. Given that this is quite a modest target with their 5 models lineup by the end of this year, but it shows Sony is not afraid to pull out if things do not look good; judging the way they closed down Clie.
Right now Sony has easily the strongest consumer lineup in the DSLR world with the A200/A300/A350. Their biggest problems are the lack of a flagship (coming) and the lack of a pro-level normal zoom for the A700 (but they do have the Tamron 17-50 available, they need to rebadge it though).

I'm expecting Sony to have no issues getting solidly over 10%. Especially since they don't have the production capacity issues Pentax has had of late.
02-01-2008, 10:29 AM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by mawz Quote
Right now Sony has easily the strongest consumer lineup in the DSLR world with the A200/A300/A350.
We'll see how it works out. It is an interesting strategy for them to flood the market like that. Will it work? Or will it work against them with one model cannibalizing its sister models?

This year should be Canon's year for entry level, XSi is quite a compelling model. With Nikon's not so inspiring D60, there will be room for K200D and Sony.
02-01-2008, 11:15 AM   #23
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QuoteOriginally posted by Marcus Quote
For what?

Who is going to go Sony from Can or Nik? Just for resolution? Just for FF?
You have to remember that Sony is really very closely related to Minolta, a name people still recognize and respect. Here is an example:

Old Monolta Film camera user with carving for Sony: Sony SLR Talk Forum: Digital Photography Review

02-01-2008, 11:51 AM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by ankit Quote
Hmm, I wonder what is under the photoshopped in unformly flat gray blob that they don't want to share.
02-01-2008, 12:31 PM   #25
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QuoteOriginally posted by mawz Quote
Hmm, Zeiss glass, superb ergonomics, SR/SSS. Why not go Sony? Especially over Canon. Frankly SR is such a boon that I got out of CaNikon stuff over it. I'd go Sony if I needed longer lenses (They've got a much better lineup than Pentax does past 77mm).
But you're not counting on the stubbornness of the ol' Canon boys.

The Sony FF system looks like a good rental. But I can't see a lot of people commiting to Sony and not this soon. If you own a good top Canon system, you don't really lose either way, regardless of what other brand has the top resolution. I don't see why they'd switch to less than Canon if they're already comfortable with Canon. I'd imagine in a lot of Canon boys eyes, they want to see what Canon has up it's sleeve before running to Sony. Availability of equipment is another concern. A lot of stores don't even advertise Sony lens prices. You have to call them up...

Again, I think it would be a great camera to rent if you needed it. To buy? Not on your own supply. If someone wants to bite on it early, they might be making a good decision honestly, because they may feel Sony is on the cutting edge and they'll be the industry innovators. So Sony will continue bringing more and more resolution. They just might do that as the years go by. But I don't think most Canon boys will bite, not this early. But I could be COMPLETELY WRONG. I've been most of my life.

If Sony could boost the FPS to well above Canon's, offer better AF tracking than Canon, and offer better sports lenses than Canon, I think Canon may have some serious sports competition.

Man, I just might buy into Sony... Whoops. I didn't mean for that to come out.

QuoteQuote:
Originally Posted by ankit
Hires pic of the "a900" prototype: http://news.sel.sony.com/images/larg...PMA2008_lg.JPG
Interesting. They're keeping the pop up flash.
02-01-2008, 12:47 PM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by Marcus Quote
offer better AF tracking than Canon, and offer better sports lenses than Canon, I think Canon may have some serious sports competition.
I'd be surprised if Sony could do that. Anyone know how good Sony/Minolta's AF predictive tracking is?

AFAIK, even w/ Nikon's massive resources, they are finally close to Canon's AF tracking w/ their new 31 point AF system (I think Canon might be still a bit better at predictive AF though).
For long sports lenses, Canon is still king (1000mm primes anyone? :-)

There's no real reason for a Canon user to switch unless they want a better indoor flash system (and one of my Nikon owning friends still complains about his flash system being fooled by reflections so they might be disappointed :-)
02-01-2008, 08:11 PM   #27
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I don't get why people think that Sony needs Canon conquest sales to sell their FF dSLR; you're forgetting the cast of Minolta shooters out there who have their bags of 35mm Minolta gear (glass) and would love to have a FF dSLR to use it on, and the fact that there are uncommitted first-time buyers or folks without a sizable collection of gear to pursuade them to stay with the make they've already got (or who have obsolete gear, like Canon FD, and haven't bought into autofocus or digital yet).

This is why Pentax should get their FF dSLR project moving...no sense in letting everybody else have first crack, or losing past customers tired of waiting.
02-01-2008, 11:34 PM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by 24X36NOW Quote
I don't get why people think that Sony needs Canon conquest sales to sell their FF dSLR;
Because that's exactly what Sony is aiming for. Sony is just short of calling their A700 sales disappointing, they merely said that it "met" their expectations, but admitted that it failed to attract non-Sony/non-Minolta users it was hoping for.

QuoteQuote:
This is why Pentax should get their FF dSLR project moving...no sense in letting everybody else have first crack, or losing past customers tired of waiting.
But when you look at the sales volume for FF camera now, just pull out the calculator and you can have pretty good idea of how many FF you can sell - and the number is small. I think Pentax would be wise to let others have their first crack and take the risk; sit back and wait for Sony A900 numbers to come in. Then do the calculation and they would know if the investment will be sound or not. Because at this point, if you use projection sales based on D3 and 5D sales number and traditional Pentax market share, the number is abysmal and the project would be doomed to be a big money loser.
02-02-2008, 12:57 AM   #29
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Re:

QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
But when you look at the sales volume for FF camera now, just pull out the calculator and you can have pretty good idea of how many FF you can sell - and the number is small. I think Pentax would be wise to let others have their first crack and take the risk; sit back and wait for Sony A900 numbers to come in. Then do the calculation and they would know if the investment will be sound or not. Because at this point, if you use projection sales based on D3 and 5D sales number and traditional Pentax market share, the number is abysmal and the project would be doomed to be a big money loser.
But couldnt this strategy back fire too? By delaying the release of Pentax FF until there are a lot sony FF users, Pentax would (again) be surrendering potential FF market share...
02-02-2008, 01:24 AM   #30
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QuoteOriginally posted by jeff1101 Quote
But couldnt this strategy back fire too? By delaying the release of Pentax FF until there are a lot sony FF users, Pentax would (again) be surrendering potential FF market share...
No, because we are talking about a very very small market segment here. Many don't realize just how small it is. In Japan, the gadget craze heaven, FF is currently less than 3% of the market share of total DSLR sales (and that includes the "hot" selling D3). If Pentax can grab their own 10% of the FF market segment, we are only talking about 0.3% of the market.

Even if we set a very optimistic FF growth of 100% increase in market share in the next two years (taking into account of Sony entry, together with 5D replacement), it's only 0.6% of market share at stake for Pentax in 2010. So how do you expect Pentax to make money on these numbers?
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