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02-01-2008, 06:24 AM   #1
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When will the entry level DSLR market peak?

Right now is an exciting time in the consumer camera industry. Everyone seems to be jumping on the DSLR bandwagon. The question is... when will all the DSLR hoopla die? It's ultra competitive now but it has to give way with consumers at one point.

I think once there is a camera with interchangable lenses, and without a viewfinder, then the industry will settle down. Camera bodies might sell but lenses aren't going to move very fast. Why? Look at how lenses are advertised. In Circuit City and Best Buy ads, they almost NEVER list the aperture. You can't buzzword a lens to a customer. And lenses will never sell to Circuit City or Best Buy crowds. What advanced photographer would consider those stores to buy equipment? I say, if aperture isn't important to advertise, then neither is having interchangable lenses. That makes me believe that those types of stores will eventually stop stocking lenses anyway. Give entry level DSLR camera buyers an 18-250 super zoom kit lens. Stop selling entry level body onlys. Entry level should come with a lens every time, even if you already have that said lens. If people see the need to continue upgrading their entry level camera to the next entry level camera, it's pretty much the same rationale as buying the same lens twice. You've pretty much bought the same camera and are getting the same results.

It's been stated that in 2009, the market will peak. I believe it to be the case.

02-01-2008, 07:53 AM   #2
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But doesnt that negate the need for having a DSLR camera?? Isnt it why bridge cameras (SLR like digital cameras with fixed lens) went out of vogue in the first place was because people wanted to have a camera that you can change lenses with? Or else why buy a DSLR in the first place? People would just continue to buy P&S...

I say the market (for DSLRs) will peak when all the people who want a DSLR have already bought one. And this is a finite number (And smaller than most people think). Sales peak in lenses will come shortly after. I mean how many lenses , (excluding a very few people with LBA) do you really need?
02-01-2008, 07:56 AM   #3
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I think that dslr market wont peak anytime soon since it will mutate in something different (video dslr or something like that) and then all will start again.
02-01-2008, 08:45 AM   #4
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The market will peak once the camera manufacturers can actually build a DSLR that fills the biggest segment of the former 35mm SLR market -- the slot occupied by the Canon EOS Rebel, the Nikon F55, FM10, etc.

As 6mp APS-C sensors become commodity priced, I expect to see the $300 DSLR.

This will fuel a huge explosion in DSLR sales to all of the folks left out of the DSLR revolution. Then it will peak.

02-01-2008, 08:55 AM   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by filmamigo Quote
The market will peak once the camera manufacturers can actually build a DSLR that fills the biggest segment of the former 35mm SLR market -- the slot occupied by the Canon EOS Rebel, the Nikon FM10, etc.
Do you mean a 35mm Digital Rebel? A FF Digital Rebel?
02-01-2008, 10:03 AM   #6
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Here's my prediction for entry level DSLR:

It will not peak for a long time - why? The "DSLR" will evolve into something quite different from today's DSLR.

The next BIG thing after Live View is Movie Mode and EVIL - Electronic View Finder with Interchangeable Lens. And this would continue to improve with new display technology and new high definition monitor.

Eventually, the device would be able to capture HD movies / surround sound with solid state hard drive and on a converging path with HD camcorders.

After that, we will see continuing miniaturization of the device form factor.

Traditional DSLR with optical viewfinders will continue to exist in the higher end market segment.
02-01-2008, 10:14 AM   #7
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we've reached a point when there will be no more "leveling"

we will advance to no end

i predict within the next 30 years the ability to capture images with your eyes and then downloading them out of your brain.

the really hi-tek guys will install replacement Zeiss eyes for better resolution.....
02-01-2008, 12:34 PM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by Gooshin Quote

i predict within the next 30 years the ability to capture images with your eyes and then downloading them out of your brain.

the really hi-tek guys will install replacement Zeiss eyes for better resolution.....
They'd better, because they eye is pretty terrible optically. The brain (and okay, the retina gets some credit for high dynamic range) does all of the important stuff.

And this is the future of cameras processing over optics.

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