[RuiC]

I agree 100%. After years of waiting in vain and wishing for a Pentax FF, now there are several new and even some cheaper FF models from other brands. This is the year that APS-C users from different brands will move to FF in flocks, despite what some FF haters say. And for Pentax this is a major lost opportunity.

On the other hand, the situation being what it is, I wouldn't be that surprised to see a dummy Pentax FF prototype at Photokina. Damage control, trying to keep the customers while not being able or willing to deliver (yet?).

For myself, I think we are beyond the damage control point now. That might have been understandable a few years ago and while Hoya were in charge, but not today. This fair is a chance for Ricoh to show that they are in charge, have a clear, coherent strategy and a solid sense of purpose. Without that, new products are lessened in impact anyway. If the fair ends with the usual "will they won't they, yes we might no we won't" carry on over new products and without the sense that some strong minds are now at the helm, all it will suggest is that Ricoh have failed to get a grip on their not so new acquisition. This would not be good news. It isn't just the patience of you or I but of the retailers and business buyers out there. They too must be looking for a lot more than blather and damage limitation. We've had both for years.

I agree. I am one of the FF believers. I want one and I will wait for it. BUT, it will never be a priority for me for various reasons the main one being that I couldn't afford it now!! But there are people who want, or need and can afford so I could never be surprised if they jump to another brand! Life goes on...

[Vanheden]

For me personaly, i gave it a few years. Going with the K-r and then the K-5 after. Just kitlenses, there was not many FF lenses around in the AF segment so i bought a decent line of old manual ones just to be safe for the future (student, no way i could replace them AND buy a new body). Time kept rolling but nothing on the horizon about a FF, except a joke or two.
So now when the the rumors are told and over with i sold the K-5, the 18-55AF lens and my samyang 85/1,4. For the money got for it i bought i ancient 5D, a samyang 14/2.8, a 50/1,8, a 100/2,8macro and a 200/2,8L with a 1.4 extender. All used ofc. The manual pentax lenses i keep, just in case...

I know that a lot of people are more than happy with their crop cameras, i´m just trying to point out what i hope for in the upcoming years in case some officials are stalking the forum.

[mattdm]

I agree 100%. After years of waiting in vain and wishing for a Pentax FF, now there are several new and even some cheaper FF models from other brands. This is the year that APS-C users from different brands will move to FF in flocks, despite what some FF haters say. And for Pentax this is a major lost opportunity.

So, here's a fun question. I'm not saying you're wrong, but what if this prediction is wrong? Will the FF crowd admit that Pentax's APS-C-focused strategy is paying off, or will this be a floating prediction of doom, with every "next year" being the year of everyone flocking to full-frame?

[Pål Jensen]

So, here's a fun question. I'm not saying you're wrong, but what if this prediction is wrong? Will the FF crowd admit that Pentax's APS-C-focused strategy is paying off, or will this be a floating prediction of doom, with every "next year" being the year of everyone flocking to full-frame?

Pentax need a sucessful APS line up to make FF viable. You can't expect a competitive FF camera from a ~5% DSLR marked share player. To increase their share they need to suceed where the volume is first. The APS lens lineup is already the best there is; the release of the roadmapped lenses will make it even more so. I was BTW of the impression that the K-3 was APS? With such a K-3 Penax will have the best APS line up and all thats lacking is marketing and distribution.

Actually, people are migrating from FF to APS also (and to other formats as well). The new FF models from Nikon and Canon give us more choices. But they are simpler and cheaper made than previous entry level FF bodies but no less expensive, making sure that the Canon 7D with outsell its simpler made 6D sibling by 10:1.

---

Last edited by Pål Jensen; 09-19-2012 at 04:42 PM.

[illdefined]

except APS-C DSLRs mean less and less everyday.

with advanced mirrorless on one end and consumer FF on the other, APS-C DSLRs are destined to become strictly entry to upper-midrange SLRs. the K30 already fits the bill.

the K-5 is currently the best of a dying tier, and not even for long once the 24mp D8000 and 70D come out next season.

[Pål Jensen]

except APS-C DSLRs mean less and less everyday.

with advanced mirrorless on one end and consumer FF on the other, APS-C DSLRs are destined to become strictly entry to upper-midrange SLRs. the K30 already fits the bill.

the K-5 is currently the best of a dying tier, and not even for long once the 24mp D8000 and 70D come out next season.

Where is the data for this? Canon sell 7 million DSLR's a year. Less than 200 000 are FF. Ie more and more APS every day; not less. If I'm not mistaken they yearly growth is between 15-30%.
We had the above prediction three years ago if not longer. The opposite have happened; Canons fortune are the entry level models and the 7D. Mirrorless have had no impact on Canon (or Nikon) DSLR sales (but have had an impact on P&S sales).
Mirror or not has nothing to do with sensor size. If you want a mirrorless camera you'll want one regardless of what sensor size you prefer.
And there is no consumer FF body, only consumer quality of the hardware. They are out of reach of 95% of the DSLR buying public and that doesn't make them consumer oriented in my book. Nor are they getting any cheaper, just cheaper made but costing the same illustrating that it is the sensor that cost money and put limits on how cheap you can sell them.

[jogiba]

Someone posted on DPR under the Photokina 2012: Pentax Ricoh Stand Report that Pentax execs vetoed Samsung's plan to introduce a full frame K mount DSLR before going on their own with mirrorless cameras.

[bossa]

Where is the data for this? Canon sell 7 million DSLR's a year. Less than 200 000 are FF. It is not going to change significantly anytime soon.
We had the above prediction three years ago if not longer. The opposite have happened; Canons fortune are the entry level models and the 7D. Mirrorless have had no impact on Canon (or Nikon) DSLR sales (but have had an impact on P&S sales).
Mirror or not has nothing to do with sensor size.
And there is no consumer FF body, only consumer quality of the hardware. They are out of reach of 95% of the DSLR buying public and that doesn't make them consumer oriented in my book.

Why do people keep bringing up camera sales figures? It's not about the cameras it's about the lenses. That's where the real profit is made. FF is aimed at a 'pro' market where people are more likely to buy a number of expensive lenses.

[illdefined]

Where is the data for this? Canon sell 7 million DSLR's a year. Less than 200 000 are FF. Ie more and more APS every day; not less. If I'm not mistaken they yearly growth is between 15-30%.
We had the above prediction three years ago if not longer. The opposite have happened; Canons fortune are the entry level models and the 7D. Mirrorless have had no impact on Canon (or Nikon) DSLR sales (but have had an impact on P&S sales).
Mirror or not has nothing to do with sensor size.
And there is no consumer FF body, only consumer quality of the hardware. They are out of reach of 95% of the DSLR buying public and that doesn't make them consumer oriented in my book. Nor are they getting any cheaper, just cheaper made but costing the same illustrating that it is the sensor that cost money and put limits on how cheap you can sell them.

yes, Canon sells a ton of cheap APS-C Rebels and also has a complete FF range from enthusiast to pro, their high-end APS-C line will go back to stopping at the x0D line like they did before. why? for the same reason Nikon stopped the D300 line years ago and created the D7000...

APS-C is now an enthusiast format. Today, pros and rich enthusiasts can afford FF, and nobody will want to carry an enormous, heavy camera (the 7D is bigger than the FF 6D and 5D!) just for an APS-C sensor. Did some pros enjoy the crop factor? of course, and that's why the D7000/60D is just tough and well featured enough for those people.

If you still don't believe me, ask yourself what happened to APS-H.

[mecrox]

So, here's a fun question. I'm not saying you're wrong, but what if this prediction is wrong? Will the FF crowd admit that Pentax's APS-C-focused strategy is paying off, or will this be a floating prediction of doom, with every "next year" being the year of everyone flocking to full-frame?

Well I guess we don't know since we don't have access to the accounts. The strategy may well have paid off in the past, but I'm not sure about going forward. If - if - APS-C starts to be seen as not so high-end because cheaper FFs from others are impinging on it, then a company like Pentax may have a problem. In that event high-end APS-C-only lenses stop being so attractive to purchasers, so you either have to lower the price or accept lower sales and both mean less revenue. You could make up the revenue by selling more mid-range items, for example K30s or DA 55-300mms lenses. Perhaps Pentax are hoping to do that. But creaming it off the high end of APS-C looks as if it just got a lot harder. Cheaper FF is here to stay, imho, and while APS-C may continue to sell very well for years this doesn't necessarily apply to APS-C DSLRs (as distinct from mirrorless cameras). In fact if asked to guess I'd say that APS-C DSLRs are on the way out over the next few years. DSLRs will become FF territory and APS-C or similar will be the territory of mirrorless cameras but much better ones than the present crop - the EVF and focus problems which have plagued them will be sorted. That's why, strictly imho, the K-01 is a more important camera than many folks think. Pentax may not have got the K-01 quite right but what's inside it could be crucial to their future.

[illdefined]

Why do people keep bringing up camera sales figures? It's not about the cameras it's about the lenses. That's where the real profit is made. FF is aimed at a 'pro' market where people are more likely to buy a number of expensive lenses.

EXACTLY. do we really think either Nikon or Canon are going to keep making pro-quality DX/EF-S versions of their lenses in the future? NO. they will focus on making FF lenses as always, and maintain cheap APS-C lenses for the entry to enthusiast market. THAT's the division right there.

[Pål Jensen]

Cheaper FF is here to stay, imho,

Cheaper than what? You could buy cheaper FF cameras three years ago. There has been no price drop on FF sensors.

[Pål Jensen]

Why do people keep bringing up camera sales figures? It's not about the cameras it's about the lenses. That's where the real profit is made. FF is aimed at a 'pro' market where people are more likely to buy a number of expensive lenses.

They don't subsidise cameras production by selling expensive lenses. Every products must meet their profit goals to the extent the competition situation allows. If not, they will increas the price or discontinue it. This is how manufacturing economics works. Canons DSLR's are money making machines. I'm pretty sure they make money on the lenses also except for the kit lenses.

[Pål Jensen]

That's why, strictly imho, the K-01 is a more important camera than many folks think. Pentax may not have got the K-01 quite right but what's inside it could be crucial to their future.

Whats inside the K-01 is the K-30 minus an optical finder. Literally!

[illdefined]

....Cheaper FF is here to stay, imho, and while APS-C may continue to sell very well for years this doesn't necessarily apply to APS-C DSLRs (as distinct from mirrorless cameras). In fact if asked to guess I'd say that APS-C DSLRs are on the way out over the next few years. DSLRs will become FF territory and APS-C or similar will be the territory of mirrorless cameras but much better ones than the present crop - the EVF and focus problems which have plagued them will be sorted. That's why, strictly imho, the K-01 is a more important camera than many folks think. Pentax may not have got the K-01 quite right but what's inside it could be crucial to their future.

EXACTLY again. APS-C is already *deep* into the mirrorless realm with Fuji X, NEX and NX. that's where APS-C has *already headed*.

Pentax had smaller lenses than most which is why you're right, the K-01 was a smart concept to natively take DA lenses, it was just poorly implemented. A GXR K-Mount for the Limited lenses would've been brilliant, but alas, HOYA and Marc Newsom happened.

APS-C won't have mirrors in it's future for much longer. if you need further proof, see the no.1 giant CANON itself joining the bandwagon and taking the mirror off APS-C with the G1X and Canon-M.

it's already begun