Originally posted by monochrome @LaurenOE // @Docrwm (and other passionate, long-term Pentax users on this and other threads:
Throughout my life I have had, every once in a while, intuitions. I can't explain them and any rational person (I include my self in that group) would and should discount them as a valid input for making a business decision. But when I have an intuition I am rarely wriong.
I first understood and used this strange phenomenon in High School and College athletics. Two or three times each game I would simply know where to be to make a play happen, though almost always going there was contrary to all coaching and play plans. I got yelled at a lot - but I made tackles and interceptions (football) and stole passes and scored goals (lacrosse) often enough that coaches learned to tolerate my infrequent weirdness.
I have had intuitions about companies, markets and people. I make mistakes when I seek insights. I am right when I accept unexpected insight and have the confidence to act on it.
I have an intuition. Ricoh gets it.
I think Ned retired voluntarily because he is the right age and he senses change is on the wind. I think John Carlson won't retire voluntarily. John is the wrong age and he doesn't seem to have the sense.
I think Noboru Akahane will not tolerate the same old same old at PRIAC and will move rapidly to bring capital, energy and change to the US market.
I think James Malcolm will not suffer flacid marketing efforts (his Sony background) bad business organization (his Ricoh background) and incomplete product knowledge (he's scary smart) for long - perhpas not more than weeks.
I beleive both men are intimately familiar with Minimum Assured Pricing - and the USA pricing tug-of-war overseen by Ned and JC.
I believe every Denver employee will be personally interviewd and evaluated by James Malcolm. I believe every metric of PRIAC will be measured and scored. Change will happen faster than we think possible.
I believe every outside contractor will have their Service-Level-Agreement reviewed and scored. Some will be terminated immediately and replaced by in-house staff. Some will be terminated later, and be replaced by in-house staff. A few might actually survive, but only if they can perform better than in-house, trained, loyal, effective full-time team employees.
I have an intuition that the big story of next year and the year after and the one after that won't be a neat Sony pocket cam or Oly throw-back cam. It will be a surprisingly competitive, muscular and aggressive Pentax that brings more than a cutting-edge camera like the K10D K7 K5 every few years. It will be a story about a company that knocks the competiton back again and again and again and just plain slaps and stings and bullies its way back into a respectable position.
It will be a story about a company that has a definite, different identity for discerning, iconoclastic users - one that surprises us when people come up to us and say, "Wow! A Pentax!! Can I hold that?" One where the "Are we really that rare?" thread either disappears or goes to 10,000 posts because we aren't any more.
I think Pentax sneers at Canon. I think Pentax wants to be Nikon.
I know. I know. You can't make a business decision on an intuition.
Except you can.
I have an intuition that if Pentax was a stock you would want to buy at the turn up from the bottom - IOW right about now.
Great post Monochrome! And as somewhat frustrated as I am with the K-5II launch, I think I pretty much agree with you. The only reasons that I'm even frustrated with the K-5II, which by almost all account is a great camera, is that it's soooooo close to being my absolutely perfect dream camera. It's so close to being everything I want, all in one package. It's still closer than anything else anyone makes, but without the video features being competitive with other brands, or even their own entry level camera, it's just hurts me. Video is now almost 50% of my job and an editorial photographer, and I desperately want the K-5 to be my do-it-all wonder machine. And I would have thought surely if they were going to update it, they would address those. Even when it came out, the video specs were behind the times, and very limiting for any kind of legitimate professional work. The K-5 was sooo close to perfection the first time around; all it needed was better AF and more video functionality. Butto see it get updated, and not even bring the video specs up to par with their entry level camera, honestly baffles me in ways I can't explain. I still love Pentax, and have no desire to go anywhere else. But it's a frustrating release; not so much because it isn't a great camera (it definitely is, especially for people who don't care about video), but because it was soooo close to being my perfect, ideal dream camera the first time around, and after an update, it still isn't.
But.
I agree with everything you've said. And I think Pentax is going to be slaying some major camera market soon. I have a suspicion that the only reason we're seeing a bit of a lackluster releases bunch right now is because Pentax/Ricoh is pouring everything it's got into something that is going to blow some minds in the near future.
Plus we did get a lot. Better AF? That has been a thorn in Pentax's side forever. If they can't now be competitive with other brands, that will remove one of the biggest black marks on their reputation, and one of the big reasons that people claim for going somewhere else.
I believe in you Pentax. Please don't let me down!