[falconeye]

manufacturing these days, material cost to final price ratios are around 10%. i.e. $150 worth of bits = $1500 retail.
[...]
It is estimated that an APS sensor cost is around 20% that of a FF sensor, that ratio doesn't change greatly irrespective of the basic cost of manufacure, it is based around the yeild per die.

Sorry, I didn't see this earlier.


I must challenge your assumptions.


As I have shown in
https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/857935-post35.html
and posts referenced therein,

the cost to make a sensor is:

• APS-C: $30,
• FF: $100,
• Non-crop medium size: $700.

Using your 10x factor, this means a premium of $700 for full frame, or a suggested retail price of $1999.- for a full frame K-7.

Therefore, your poll makes absolutelely no sense (IMHO).


I propose another poll:

What would you prefer:

1. A 15MP full frame K-7s for $2000 (7.6 µm pixel size)? or
2. A 30MP full frame K-7x for $2500 (5 µm pixel size)?

The second option preserves full resolution with the existing DA, DA* and DA Ltd. glass within the cropped image circle, i.e., full frame w/o a disadvantage but at a higher price.

(Note: - the smaller pixels would not lead to more noise after resampling to 15MP;
- only the fine grain full frame sensors (like in Nikon's D3X) seem to deliver on the promise of full frame, like extended dynamic range etc. the coarse grain sensors (like in Nikon's D700) seem to be strong compromises for a low price.)

---

Last edited by falconeye; 02-10-2010 at 01:18 PM.

[Blue]

Well, I can agree that standardized size of sensor don't make much sense apart from lens design. Funny enough, Canon seems to stick to FF for their "pro" line. I guess the crop factor is not that important for their customer base (sport, journalists, fashion)

Anyway, I'm pretty certain that APS-H would be a stupid move for Pentax (if they even find a sensor available) on a marketing side, people dream about FF not "bigger than APSC" so APS-H would still be "smaller than FF", whatever is the performance of the sensor.

Regards,
Guillaume

If (its a big If) Pentax were to go to a sensor between aps-c and FF, there is nothing says it has to be the old Canon H which probably wouldn't be available if Canon made those themselves anyway. This would actually allow Pentax to pick a sensor larger than the c that would work best with the DA series lenses. An upgradable sensor would be interesting.

[Blue]

. . .

I propose another poll:

What would you prefer:

1. A 15MP full frame K-7s for $2000 (7.6 µm pixel size)? or
2. A 30MP full frame K-7x for $2500 (5 µm pixel size)?

The second option preserves full resolution with the existing DA, DA* and DA Ltd. glass within the cropped image circle, i.e., full frame w/o a disadvantage but at a higher price.

(Note: - the smaller pixels would not lead to more noise after resampling to 15MP;
- only the fine grain full frame sensors (like in Nikon's D3X) seem to deliver on the promise of full frame, like extended dynamic range etc. the coarse grain sensors (like in Nikon's D700) seem to be strong compromises for a low price.)

There is a poll similar to that around here somewhere.

[farfisa]

This thread is over 2 years old, that should explain a lot!

But why start another one of these threads?

I was pointing out the age of the thread to those confused why a low-spec FF body would be $2500, when an A850, for example, goes for under $2k today.

The numbers no longer make sense for the discussion.

[falconeye]

I was pointing out the age of the thread

I ran into this trap.

I suggested to Moderators many times that threads autoclose after some time of inactivity. I'll start a corresponding poll now ...

[Blue]

I was pointing out the age of the thread to those confused why a low-spec FF body would be $2500, when an A850, for example, goes for under $2k today.

The numbers no longer make sense for the discussion.

An I was pointing out with my aps-h comment that the poll was flawed at the time by not having that in there. However, there are more to the discussion than "initial" cost. Besides, the high-end aps-c costs are still > $1K it would seem.

Another one of these threads would be obsolete before Pentax puts a ff on the market anyway.

[Blue]

I ran into this trap.

I suggested to Moderators many times that threads autoclose after some time of inactivity. I'll start a corresponding poll now ...

That's a 2-edged sword. Some topics can be revisited and it may be better to continue a thread than start a new one. That is why they are called "threads."

[jogiba]

I can't believe Pentax could come out with a $9,500 MF 645D that DOES NOT WORK WITH THE 24 MILLION FF K MOUNT LENSES out there but can't come out with a FF DSLR like the $2,500 Canon 5D MKII.

[Blue]

I can't believe Pentax could come out with a $9,500 MF 645D that DOES NOT WORK WITH THE 24 MILLION FF K MOUNT LENSES out there but can't come out with a FF DSLR like the $2,500 Canon 5D MKII.

Pentax showed 10 years ago they could do a ff dSLR. There are people out there that have FA series 645 lenses already as well. Canon didn't exactly start out at the $2500 price point on full frame either. Hoya's acquisition of Pentax changed the flow of things some as well. Pentax as just now really got competitive in the dSLR arena. They have really been serious in this arena for what, 4.5 to 5 years? It would have been a bad move for a small company to jump in at the top tier of a company that could flat sell for a loss on a given line to sink them. Until the economy bottomed in some areas, that was the situation. Coming out of this global economic crisis like a juggernaut may turn out to be an effective strategy. What once was an advantage, may be somewhat of a disadvantage to Canon.

The other thing is Pentax had spent resources developing the 645D prior to the acquisition and tabled it for a while. Now they have decided to finish it. Hoya is doing a good job of keeping the lid on things so we don't really know what they are up to.

[Samsungian]

I thought the 24 million Pentax lenses usable on K-Mount dslr included all 645, 6x7 manufactured since day one.
And all the screw mount lenses made from early 1960's thru late 1970's.

Anyways, anyone know what happened to the $3,500 to $5,000 645D price rumors ?

I guess we'll know on 3-11-10 the 645D price, specs, market availability, currently produced lenses, maker of sensor, whether it CCD or CMOS, and if 645D has HD and Shake Reduction and weather seals.


$3,500 is actually very tempting price point, for me.


$6,500 for one camera is too much money, for me.

I can't believe Pentax could come out with a $9,500 MF 645D that DOES NOT WORK WITH THE 24 MILLION FF K MOUNT LENSES out there but can't come out with a FF DSLR like the $2,500 Canon 5D MKII.

[lithos]

Pentax showed 10 years ago they could do a ff dSLR. There are people out there that have FA series 645 lenses already as well. Canon didn't exactly start out at the $2500 price point on full frame either. Hoya's acquisition of Pentax changed the flow of things some as well. Pentax as just now really got competitive in the dSLR arena. They have really been serious in this arena for what, 4.5 to 5 years? It would have been a bad move for a small company to jump in at the top tier of a company that could flat sell for a loss on a given line to sink them. Until the economy bottomed in some areas, that was the situation. Coming out of this global economic crisis like a juggernaut may turn out to be an effective strategy. What once was an advantage, may be somewhat of a disadvantage to Canon.

The other thing is Pentax had spent resources developing the 645D prior to the acquisition and tabled it for a while. Now they have decided to finish it. Hoya is doing a good job of keeping the lid on things so we don't really know what they are up to.

Aye. It's seems Pentax is indeed pulling a Bradbury (in the spirit of the Winter Olympics and all that!) Whoever mentioned "turnover's vanity, profit's sanity," is a wise man.

By the look of it, the current economic climate will remain unchanged at the release of the 645D. The same rules, I'd imagine, would apply to the amateur MF market. People saving up for a sixteen-grand Mamiya might be swayed to a tennish-grand (or cheaper, but I'm playing it safe here) Pentax, hopefully with higher resolution. Sure, the Mamiya DM22 is ten grand US...but the resolution is only 22MP, and hopefully the Pentax will out-res it. And hopefully it'll have weather sealing, and better lenses.

I hope Pentax keeps the philosophy of its film 645 cameras - not studio cameras, but miniature field cameras.

And, yes, not much of Hoya's cash was spent on this camera. It was mostly done before, I'll bet, before the merger. Finishing off the development probably cost less than the development of the K-7. Production, of course, is another matter.

I personally think it'll be smarter to release it to the whole world, and not just Japan - not necessarily simultaneously - maybe Japan first, to recoup some costs, and then the world.

[brecklundin]

not a chance in hell, I will EVER spend $2500 on a camera body. I do this for fun but on a resonable budget and i don't find anything in the $2500 range a reasonable or remotely "affordable" (gotta love how they toss around what is "affordable" to consumers these days).

[Agnostic]

I think FF is the next APS-C. It's unavoidable and I'm sure Pentax already knows this. They are just waiting for the right moment to introduce a prosumer FF replacement of their top DSLR. They don't want to offer an expensive pro FF camera because they can't compete with canikon in that market and wouldn't make a profit from it but as soon as FF sensor prices dip to prosumer level the situation changes completely.
It's just a matter of time until FF sensors come down to consumer level prices. Then camera companies will start selling the neglected advantages of FF over APS-C to the larger public, open up a new can of selling points and replace the current megapixel, HD video and "lets cram it full of barely used features" marketing with:

1. Improved dynamic range/dynamic range distribution! (This is really at the top of my wish list for my next DSLR)
2. Better High ISO performance/less noise!
3. Smaller DOF: better bokeh/plasticity control!

I don't mind getting a FF without all the fancy features by the way, my current favorite camera is a Rolleicord Vb that was built about 50 years ago: It's basic, well built and a pleasure to use. The chemical sensors I use with it (otherwise known as "film") have a much better dynamic range and a much better dynamic range distribution (those are not the same thing) than any digital camera and is has a smaller DOF at any given aperture resulting in better bokeh and plasticity/3d effect than even a FF DSLR.

Just my 2 cents!

[Art Vandelay II]

I think FF is the next APS-C. It's unavoidable and I'm sure Pentax already knows this. They are just waiting for the right moment to introduce a prosumer FF replacement of their top DSLR.

They might want to hurry up about it. Barely used Canon 5D Mark I's are selling for under $1000 on eBay and they are looking more and more tempting every day. If Falconeye's $100 FF vs $30 APS-C sensor cost is accurate then I see no reason why now isn't the time for Pentax to release a FF camera. If they can sell an APS-C K-7 for $1100 and make a profit on it then why exactly cant they make a full frame version for $1500-1800? That extra $400-700 of MSRP should easily cover the higher sensor cost and larger prism. All I know is they should do it before Nikon releases a full frame version of the D90. A used 5D is temping, but a $1500 FF D90 will be impossible for me to ignore.

[Samsungian]

My Nikon buddy, ex Pentax owner till he bought D100 years ago & he just bought D700 for $1999, NEW. The clock is ticking on buying brand new D700 for any price.

I love the $2,000 price point for brand new full frame dslrs. Theres just something magical about it. Use it for 4 or five years and sell it for $1,000 or more. Cost of annual ownership? $200-$250 a year, cheaper than renting. Heck the people who bought K-7 at issue price loose $250 or more in the price drops Pentax does as their cameras age a few months. Whats K-7 now, $1007 at B&H, so thats some $292 less in what, a half a year or so?

I've read D700 replacement with some 720 video added will cost $3,000 to $3,500 in USA. Whether its called, D800, D900, D700x, or D700s who knows for sure.

Pentax will not offer full frame cause they make better profits on aps-c and existing aps-c dedicated lenses.

I came to this no full frame pentax reality in March 2008 when I bought full frame elsewhere.

My full frame dslr two year anniversary is due soon, and so far I was right in my pentax aps-c only assumption.