Originally posted by benjikan As we do not know the price of manufacturing a FF sensor by Pentax/Samsung, it is difficult to determine the bottom line. Perhaps it will come down to that and that alone. If the quantity is great enough, we might find that in the very near future that FF sensors will cost something around 200-300 € per unit. If that is the case, we might see FF cameras in the 1000-1500 € range for the body alone.
Ben
Ben
I've been in electronics manufacturing for a long time (I'm an old geezer!
) and I do know the base cost relationships across the industry including offshore manufacturing (China, Korea etc.). I also know the general sensor costs within the industry in manufacturing quantities. Even if Samsung do an inter-company swap, sensor for mechanics, with a favourable exchange mechanism for both parties. a FF sensor will cost at least 4x the cost of an APS-C sensor, it's down to the silicon real estate and yeild per silicon disc.
In my example of a FF sensor costing $200 (not 200-300 Euros!), the camera would be around $3500 if you retain a body similar to the K20D, with the same (already condemned by some as insufficient) performance parameters. The FF sensor would need to be in the region of $60 max to allow for a $1500 (1000 Euro) price point. It ain't going to happen unless both parties are prepared to write off the cost of the exchange value, very unlikely, knowing Hoya's focus on profitability!
I am not dismissing the fact that, one day, Pentax could well produce a FF body, but at this time and probably for the next couple of years, there is a much larger ROI available if they jump into the gap provided by the demise of the D2x, and the fact that there is no pro-grade APS-C Canon either, plus neither the Nikon D300 nor the A700 cut it at that level.
Once Pentax have established the fact that they
can produce a serious Pro-grade camera that could be closely compared to the D2x or 1D mkII in terms of constructional quality, durability, accessories etc., then
that would be the time to do a FF body and FF lens range, or do a 645D system.
Personally I favour the latter. Why? Because of the number of 645 users out there, and the lenses that are still out there, and the fame and culture of Pentax in that particular market segment. Pentax
never had a professional FF culture or following after the LX, which was a long time ago, too long in my opinion, Canon and Nikon destroyed that following (Leica, Contax and Olympus as well), where as they never cut it in the MF field, where Pentax were very strong and hugely respected.
The only perceivable benefit for Pentax to produce a FF body, is to show that they can, but then it will put additional pressure on the already strained lens supply chain, without the prospect of suficient sales, if the new DA Lenses above, say 35mm, cannot produce decent results on a FF sensor.
If they can, then there will only be a requirement for a smaller number of FF circle coverage lenses below the 35mm focal length and also to produce some longer telephoto's in the 400 and 600mm region, which will also be required for a pro-APC camera as well.
My tests on all the DA prime lenses above 40mm and the zooms at the mid to long end of their focal lengths (with the exception of the 18-55 and 50-200) on my MZ-S, do show that they have a sufficient circle of coverage, but the results on film are likely to be very different than on a FF sensor due to the criticallity of light fall off and edge resolution. I haven't tried the DA* lenses on my MZ-S, nor am I likely to, as I'm disposing of it in the next couple of weeks. Someone else will have to do that!
The fact that Sony have also thrown their gauntlet into the FF fire, will have some influence on the decision makers at Pentax, I just hope that they don't make any unwise knee jerk re-actions that prevents them from producing a better than K20D model nearer to the D2x level. I would part with my money for one of those, but not for a "me too" average FF, and I'm a professional tightwad and squeak when I walk!