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09-27-2012, 09:09 AM   #91
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FF will stay a tiny niche until the price approaches the area where the mass market is.
And the mass market is where a good full featured body + F2.8 standardzoom costs $1,000-1,500 street price.

Currently the level for crippled FF body + F2.8 standardzoom is about $3,500-4,000.

Is that gap going to connect in 5 years? Maybe. Maybe not.

That is regardless of DSLR or mirrorless or P&S. It is all in the price.

09-27-2012, 09:21 AM   #92
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@mecrox: I am what?
We weren't talking about successful, but about cheap cameras. The A850 was exactly this: a cheap camera; and the new cheap cameras are more expensive than it was (even if only by $100).
And that's in direct contradiction with your "over time folks get an awful lot more stuff for less money". IMHO progress is just an excuse to keep prices up.

I agree, though, that "full frame" will most likely have more influence after the first (probably) successful "cheap" cameras. Not enough to overturn APS-C, not now, not in 5 years.

@illdefined, what a coincidence - those are the companies whose DSLRs failed
09-27-2012, 09:33 AM   #93
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
@illdefined, what a coincidence - those are the companies whose DSLRs failed
Precisely.

Those companies couldn't compete in the two-horse race that is (now FF) DSLRs, and found success elsewhere. right now, Pentax isn't doing either.

Last edited by illdefined; 09-27-2012 at 09:56 AM.
09-27-2012, 09:52 AM   #94
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
FF will stay a tiny niche until the price approaches the area where the mass market is.
And the mass market is where a good full featured body + F2.8 standardzoom costs $1,000-1,500 street price.

Currently the level for crippled FF body + F2.8 standardzoom is about $3,500-4,000.

Is that gap going to connect in 5 years? Maybe. Maybe not.

That is regardless of DSLR or mirrorless or P&S. It is all in the price.
why does the mass market require F2.8 zooms? those are typically considered pro-lenses.

09-27-2012, 10:27 AM - 1 Like   #95
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QuoteOriginally posted by illdefined Quote
Precisely.

Those companies couldn't compete in the two-horse race that is (now FF) DSLRs, and found success elsewhere. right now, Pentax isn't doing either.
How so? They failed on the DSLR market; Pentax, OTOH, didn't failed - on the contrary, they managed to survive and keep some market share, despite all the adverse conditions (including the lack of a more professional small format solution).
It seems Pentax found an approach which works with a smaller market share; and they can build on that, instead of forcing their way into a market or another.
09-27-2012, 10:40 AM   #96
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
It seems Pentax found an approach which works with a smaller market share; and they can build on that, instead of forcing their way into a market or another.
Indeed. Despite all the doom and gloom here, stellar reviews of the K-30 are coming virtually every day, the press has also reacted positively to the K-5 II s - and the Q seems to be no flop at all, at least not in Japan.
09-27-2012, 10:46 AM   #97
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QuoteOriginally posted by illdefined Quote
It's not going away, it will just live in advanced mirrorless cameras and entry to mid-level DSLRs. The high-end/pro-level now fully belongs to FF (and used FF).
FF has always owned pro-level, but there is definitely a market for advanced APS-C's. The 7D will be updated, and the K-3 will arrive and they will sell well.

QuoteOriginally posted by illdefined Quote
APS-C DSLRs no longer have an image quality/size advantage over anything as much smaller mirrorless cameras have the same image quality and comparably sized FF cameras have over twice the sensor area.
APS-C most certainly has advantages. In IQ over m4/3 and in handling, ergonomics, weathersealing, and OVF beauty over the APS-C MILCs.

QuoteOriginally posted by illdefined Quote
The only advantage APS-C DSLRs have left is cost, and that's only if you must have a DSLR. Short of FF, Sony, Samsung, Panasonic, Olympus and Fuji are making good progress in telling the world we don't.
So go buy one. I certainly won't miss your negative attitude and constant Pentax bashing.
09-27-2012, 10:49 AM   #98
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QuoteOriginally posted by gazonk Quote
the press has also reacted positively to the K-5 II s


09-27-2012, 10:57 AM - 1 Like   #99
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
How so? They failed on the DSLR market; Pentax, OTOH, didn't failed - on the contrary, they managed to survive and keep some market share, despite all the adverse conditions (including the lack of a more professional small format solution).
It seems Pentax found an approach which works with a smaller market share; and they can build on that, instead of forcing their way into a market or another.
What you are stating is correct, but it's past tense. Pentax competed rather well when APS-C was the standard for DSLRs, in 2013 it will no longer be.

FF is the new standard for DSLRs, even if on an aspirational level (ie. budding photographers who buy an APS-C DSLRs now due to cost, but buy FF glass for later...), and Pentax currently has no such path.

Meanwhile, mirrorless have caught up to APS-C DSLRs in image quality and beat them in size and price.
09-27-2012, 11:09 AM   #100
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QuoteOriginally posted by gazonk Quote
Indeed. Despite all the doom and gloom here, stellar reviews of the K-30 are coming virtually every day, the press has also reacted positively to the K-5 II s - and the Q seems to be no flop at all, at least not in Japan.
The K30 is exceptional as a mid-level DSLR, so good in fact it threatens the K5. it represents the new natural market spot for APS-C DSLRs.

The K5II is a great product, but hardly an innovation. It now better competes with its 2-3 year old competition....that is getting replaced in the next couple months (24mp). Pentax had a small window of opportunity to jump ahead in APS-C here (and gain some crucial marketshare) but decided to dig in instead.

The Q may be a hit in Japan, but everybody else is competing on a global level.
09-27-2012, 11:15 AM   #101
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I'm willing to bet a penny that Pentax will make about 18.000 (or more) units per month, from their next high end APS-C model. They will compete just fine, as long as they have to. When "full frame" will become possible and necessary, they'll do that, too. Everything will start making sense the next year, I promise

I'd rather say for most people "full frame" will remain at an aspirational level - at $2000. You probably remember the rumors about D600, people basically hoped it would be priced at $1500; and why? because that's the most they could afford, or the most they could afford to dream of
09-27-2012, 11:18 AM   #102
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QuoteOriginally posted by audiobomber Quote
FF has always owned pro-level, but there is definitely a market for advanced APS-C's. The 7D will be updated, and the K-3 will arrive and they will sell well.
The 7D was for filmmakers who couldn't afford the 5DMkII, now they can afford the 6D. I believe the monstrous 7D (bigger than the FF 6D and 5D) will be phased out, and more advanced features will return back into the 60D line as it was before (50D,40D,30D...)



QuoteOriginally posted by audiobomber Quote
APS-C most certainly has advantages. In IQ over m4/3 and in handling, ergonomics, weathersealing, and OVF beauty over the APS-C MILCs.
"beauty" is pretty subjective, and there is now a whole new consumer generation raised on taking pictures by LCD, the mirrorless market is only growing. even Leica has taken up EVFs.

QuoteOriginally posted by audiobomber Quote
So go buy one. I certainly won't miss your negative attitude and constant Pentax bashing.
I'm sorry, i didn't know this site was only for cheerleaders.
09-27-2012, 11:21 AM   #103
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QuoteOriginally posted by JeffP3456 Quote

Now they just need to make some money selling these so that they can fund what ever comes next ...
The break now is the fail later
09-27-2012, 11:24 AM   #104
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If K-30 is so good, why it yields the loss?
09-27-2012, 11:28 AM   #105
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I'm willing to bet a penny that Pentax will make about 18.000 (or more) units per month, from their next high end APS-C model. They will compete just fine, as long as they have to. When "full frame" will become possible and necessary, they'll do that, too. Everything will start making sense the next year, I promise

I'd rather say for most people "full frame" will remain at an aspirational level - at $2000. You probably remember the rumors about D600, people basically hoped it would be priced at $1500; and why? because that's the most they could afford, or the most they could afford to dream of
oh, I know Pentax will do something, it has to.

I don't really expect FF soon, but relying on APS-C DSLRs alone just won't be enough. the question is what and when?

I also agree for many FF will remain aspirational, but that's crucial when people choose to invest in lenses for a format they eventually plan to grow into, eschewing Pentax.
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