K20D Price drop

gamgee · 02-06-2008, 05:15 AM

What is your expectation regarding eventual price drop - how much and after how many months?

roentarre · 02-06-2008, 05:24 AM

Wait for 6 months. It might become 900 US dollars.

But I cannot wait to get one regardless, ready to sell my beloved k10d

thibs · 02-06-2008, 07:21 AM

Originally posted by gamgee

What is your expectation regarding eventual price drop - how much and after how many months?

Don't hold your breath, Hoya won't allow the price to plummet like the K10D price did.

noblepa · 02-06-2008, 08:09 AM

Originally posted by thibs

Don't hold your breath, Hoya won't allow the price to plummet like the K10D price did.

While Hoya has said that they would like to see Pentax produce higher margins, what they really want are profits. They're not stupid. Is it better to see $100 profit (each) on 10,000 cameras, or $50 profit on 100,000 cameras sold?

They will do what it takes to maximize total profits. That means that they will try to balance price (high margins) and units sold (low price). They will try to analyse the unexpected success of the K10D and use that knowledge to maximize margins without sacrificing units sold.

That said, I do agree that the K20D will probably never sell for $600.

Paul Noble

regken · 02-06-2008, 08:12 AM

Originally posted by thibs

Don't hold your breath, Hoya won't allow the price to plummet like the K10D price did.

The drop in price has nothing to do with Hoya. It's the retailers that set the price depending on how much they want to make. Both models will be discounted 25% as soon as the first adapters make their purchases. When sales start slowing down places like Beach and buydig will then discount them up to 33%. About 4 months after release the k20D will be around $975. Give it another 3 months and it will be at $860. If Nikon releases a D90 within that time frame the discounting might be sped up.

regken · 02-06-2008, 08:22 AM

Originally posted by noblepa

That said, I do agree that the K20D will probably never sell for $600.

Paul Noble

While I've never dealt in that specific channel of distribution it appears the larger buyers can buy at close to 45% off MSRP. An online company like buydig will live with a 20% markup. If my guess at the discount is right the lowest price we can expect is $1,300 X .55 = $715 X 1.2 = $858.

mattdm · 02-06-2008, 08:28 AM

Hey, in the future, when you post something like this in the News and Rumors forum, make it " K20D Price drop?" or better "When might K20D price drop?"

As it is, someone scanning the subjects gets excited that there might be news that Pentax is decreasing the initial list price, when that's really not the case at all.

Gooshin · 02-06-2008, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by mattdm

Hey, in the future, when you post something like this in the News and Rumors forum, make it " K20D Price drop?" or better "When might K20D price drop?"

As it is, someone scanning the subjects gets excited that there might be news that Pentax is decreasing the initial list price, when that's really not the case at all.

you're easily excited

davemdsn · 02-06-2008, 08:38 AM

I spent about 4 years working in a camera store, which is how I got much of my gear over the years. Let me tell you that the retail mark up on digital cameras is not what it was on film cameras. Retailers are lucky to get 10-12% on most DSLRs. They really don't have much room to discount the cameras. Places like B&H sell it for less because they get a price reduction for buying in larger quantities. The real price reductions happen at the distributor/manufacturer level. Significant price reductions are directly in Hoya/Pentax's hands.

Also, a $50 price reduction won't increase sales by ten fold. Would be nice if it did, but it doesn't.

That being said, I do hope for a bit if a reduction by it's release, but I won't be holding my breath.

codiac2600 · 02-06-2008, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by davemdsn

I spent about 4 years working in a camera store, which is how I got much of my gear over the years. Let me tell you that the retail mark up on digital cameras is not what it was on film cameras. Retailers are lucky to get 10-12% on most DSLRs. They really don't have much room to discount the cameras. Places like B&H sell it for less because they get a price reduction for buying in larger quantities. The real price reductions happen at the distributor/manufacturer level. Significant price reductions are directly in Hoya/Pentax's hands.

Also, a $50 price reduction won't increase sales by ten fold. Would be nice if it did, but it doesn't.

That being said, I do hope for a bit if a reduction by it's release, but I won't be holding my breath.

From what Pentax USA have said is that Hoya is very firm with their pricing and most likely will not continue the rebate program for bodies. On a side note there will be no discount for buying the Samsung clone because it costs retailers $100 more so it'll be selling for $1399 MAP pricing.

noblepa · 02-06-2008, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by davemdsn

Also, a $50 price reduction won't increase sales by ten fold. Would be nice if it did, but it doesn't.

I suspect you're referring to my example. My numbers were, of course, made up. I realize that a $50 price drop won't increase sales tenfold. Besides, a reduction of $50 in Pentax' profit probably translates into a retail price reduction somewhat larger than that.

My point was, and still is, that Hoya/Pentax will allow the price to drift to the point that maximizes their total profit, regardless of Hoya's remarks about having Pentax operate at higher margins. If that point is $1000, then that's where the price will stay. If that price is $600, then it will go that low. I doubt it, but if the bean counters in Tokyo (or Golden) think that that price point will maximize profits, then that's what they'll do, provided that they can build that many.

They won't drop the price simply to generate unit sales, if the price drop is so big that it offsets the increased profits of selling more units. That said, this kind of pricing decision is somewhat of a black art, rather than a science. You don't know if a price drop will increase profits until you try it and, if you're wrong, you're stuck with the decision.

I suspect that, given the success of the K10D, if the K20D is met with the same kind of market acceptance, Hoya/Pentax will resist the temptation to reduce prices very much.

Paul Noble

Tom M · 02-06-2008, 10:28 AM

$1000 within three months.

Some distributor is going to buy 10,000 units at $700 ea and instead of taking a chance by sitting on them for full retail, they'll move them quickly at $1000 a pop - I personally guarantee it.

gamgee · 02-06-2008, 03:04 PM

Thanks everybody.
I hope they dont decide to stick with initial pricing...

I realized that title is misleading only after I posted...

kdoggydog · 02-06-2008, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by regken

The drop in price has nothing to do with Hoya. It's the retailers that set the price depending on how much they want to make. Both models will be discounted 25% as soon as the first adapters make their purchases. When sales start slowing down places like Beach and buydig will then discount them up to 33%. About 4 months after release the k20D will be around $975. Give it another 3 months and it will be at $860. If Nikon releases a D90 within that time frame the discounting might be sped up.

It's not the retailers that decide intial pricing. That would be the manufacturer.

**Pål Jensen** · 02-06-2008, 04:57 PM

According to the Norwegian distributors web page both the K20D and the K200D is 20% more expensive than the camera they replace; the K10D and K100D respectively. So the prices are pretty competitive to start with. I expect a 20% increase over the previous models wil be the case in most other markets as well.

02-06-2008, 05:15 AM	#1
gamgee Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Osijek, Croatia Posts: 116	K20D Price drop What is your expectation regarding eventual price drop - how much and after how many months?

02-06-2008, 08:09 AM	#4
noblepa Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bay Village, Ohio USA Posts: 1,142	Hoya Originally posted by thibs Don't hold your breath, Hoya won't allow the price to plummet like the K10D price did. While Hoya has said that they would like to see Pentax produce higher margins, what they really want are profits. They're not stupid. Is it better to see $100 profit (each) on 10,000 cameras, or $50 profit on 100,000 cameras sold? They will do what it takes to maximize total profits. That means that they will try to balance price (high margins) and units sold (low price). They will try to analyse the unexpected success of the K10D and use that knowledge to maximize margins without sacrificing units sold. That said, I do agree that the K20D will probably never sell for $600. Paul Noble

02-06-2008, 10:10 AM	#11
noblepa Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bay Village, Ohio USA Posts: 1,142	Price drop Originally posted by davemdsn Also, a $50 price reduction won't increase sales by ten fold. Would be nice if it did, but it doesn't. I suspect you're referring to my example. My numbers were, of course, made up. I realize that a $50 price drop won't increase sales tenfold. Besides, a reduction of $50 in Pentax' profit probably translates into a retail price reduction somewhat larger than that. My point was, and still is, that Hoya/Pentax will allow the price to drift to the point that maximizes their total profit, regardless of Hoya's remarks about having Pentax operate at higher margins. If that point is $1000, then that's where the price will stay. If that price is $600, then it will go that low. I doubt it, but if the bean counters in Tokyo (or Golden) think that that price point will maximize profits, then that's what they'll do, provided that they can build that many. They won't drop the price simply to generate unit sales, if the price drop is so big that it offsets the increased profits of selling more units. That said, this kind of pricing decision is somewhat of a black art, rather than a science. You don't know if a price drop will increase profits until you try it and, if you're wrong, you're stuck with the decision. I suspect that, given the success of the K10D, if the K20D is met with the same kind of market acceptance, Hoya/Pentax will resist the temptation to reduce prices very much. Paul Noble

02-06-2008, 03:04 PM	#13
gamgee Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Osijek, Croatia Posts: 116 Original Poster	Will K20D price drop? Thanks everybody. I hope they dont decide to stick with initial pricing... I realized that title is misleading only after I posted...

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02-06-2008, 05:24 AM	#2
roentarre Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Melbourne, Australia Posts: 11,783	Wait for 6 months. It might become 900 US dollars. But I cannot wait to get one regardless, ready to sell my beloved k10d

02-06-2008, 07:21 AM	#3
thibs Pentaxian Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Belgium Photos: Albums Posts: 7,001	Originally posted by gamgee What is your expectation regarding eventual price drop - how much and after how many months? Don't hold your breath, Hoya won't allow the price to plummet like the K10D price did.

02-06-2008, 08:12 AM	#5
regken Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Bangor, Maine Photos: Gallery Posts: 1,377	Originally posted by thibs Don't hold your breath, Hoya won't allow the price to plummet like the K10D price did. The drop in price has nothing to do with Hoya. It's the retailers that set the price depending on how much they want to make. Both models will be discounted 25% as soon as the first adapters make their purchases. When sales start slowing down places like Beach and buydig will then discount them up to 33%. About 4 months after release the k20D will be around $975. Give it another 3 months and it will be at $860. If Nikon releases a D90 within that time frame the discounting might be sped up.

02-06-2008, 08:22 AM	#6
regken Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Bangor, Maine Photos: Gallery Posts: 1,377	Originally posted by noblepa That said, I do agree that the K20D will probably never sell for $600. Paul Noble While I've never dealt in that specific channel of distribution it appears the larger buyers can buy at close to 45% off MSRP. An online company like buydig will live with a 20% markup. If my guess at the discount is right the lowest price we can expect is $1,300 X .55 = $715 X 1.2 = $858.

02-06-2008, 08:28 AM	#7
mattdm Veteran Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Boston, MA Photos: Gallery Posts: 2,948	Hey, in the future, when you post something like this in the News and Rumors forum, make it " K20D Price drop?" or better "When might K20D price drop?" As it is, someone scanning the subjects gets excited that there might be news that Pentax is decreasing the initial list price, when that's really not the case at all.

02-06-2008, 08:38 AM	#8
Gooshin Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Toronto, the one in Canada. Posts: 5,610	Originally posted by mattdm Hey, in the future, when you post something like this in the News and Rumors forum, make it " K20D Price drop?" or better "When might K20D price drop?" As it is, someone scanning the subjects gets excited that there might be news that Pentax is decreasing the initial list price, when that's really not the case at all. you're easily excited

02-06-2008, 08:38 AM	#9
davemdsn Inactive Account Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Boise, Idaho Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 1,413	I spent about 4 years working in a camera store, which is how I got much of my gear over the years. Let me tell you that the retail mark up on digital cameras is not what it was on film cameras. Retailers are lucky to get 10-12% on most DSLRs. They really don't have much room to discount the cameras. Places like B&H sell it for less because they get a price reduction for buying in larger quantities. The real price reductions happen at the distributor/manufacturer level. Significant price reductions are directly in Hoya/Pentax's hands. Also, a $50 price reduction won't increase sales by ten fold. Would be nice if it did, but it doesn't. That being said, I do hope for a bit if a reduction by it's release, but I won't be holding my breath.

02-06-2008, 09:15 AM	#10
codiac2600 Veteran Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Rockford, Illinois Posts: 2,027	Originally posted by davemdsn I spent about 4 years working in a camera store, which is how I got much of my gear over the years. Let me tell you that the retail mark up on digital cameras is not what it was on film cameras. Retailers are lucky to get 10-12% on most DSLRs. They really don't have much room to discount the cameras. Places like B&H sell it for less because they get a price reduction for buying in larger quantities. The real price reductions happen at the distributor/manufacturer level. Significant price reductions are directly in Hoya/Pentax's hands. Also, a $50 price reduction won't increase sales by ten fold. Would be nice if it did, but it doesn't. That being said, I do hope for a bit if a reduction by it's release, but I won't be holding my breath. From what Pentax USA have said is that Hoya is very firm with their pricing and most likely will not continue the rebate program for bodies. On a side note there will be no discount for buying the Samsung clone because it costs retailers $100 more so it'll be selling for $1399 MAP pricing.

02-06-2008, 10:28 AM	#12
Tom M Veteran Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Lincoln Park, NJ Photos: Gallery Posts: 780	$1000 within three months. Some distributor is going to buy 10,000 units at $700 ea and instead of taking a chance by sitting on them for full retail, they'll move them quickly at $1000 a pop - I personally guarantee it.

02-06-2008, 04:15 PM	#14
kdoggydog Inactive Account Join Date: May 2007 Location: Cape Cod, Ma. Photos: Gallery Posts: 7	Originally posted by regken The drop in price has nothing to do with Hoya. It's the retailers that set the price depending on how much they want to make. Both models will be discounted 25% as soon as the first adapters make their purchases. When sales start slowing down places like Beach and buydig will then discount them up to 33%. About 4 months after release the k20D will be around $975. Give it another 3 months and it will be at $860. If Nikon releases a D90 within that time frame the discounting might be sped up. It's not the retailers that decide intial pricing. That would be the manufacturer.

02-06-2008, 04:57 PM	#15
Pål Jensen Site Supporter Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Norway Photos: Albums Posts: 4,371	According to the Norwegian distributors web page both the K20D and the K200D is 20% more expensive than the camera they replace; the K10D and K100D respectively. So the prices are pretty competitive to start with. I expect a 20% increase over the previous models wil be the case in most other markets as well.