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02-18-2008, 11:54 PM   #16
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Here's my guess:
I think it will be a Rangefinder styled camera,
no mirror,
fully functional Live View,
accepts all existing lenses,
And Rugged,
and compact,
more FPS,
and probably will record HD video.
That would be a bigger difference than between the K10D, and the k20D

02-19-2008, 12:10 AM   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by Levi Quote
Here's my guess:
I think it will be a Rangefinder styled camera,
no mirror,
fully functional Live View,
accepts all existing lenses,
And Rugged,
and compact,
more FPS,
and probably will record HD video.
That would be a bigger difference than between the K10D, and the k20D
That's not what you think, that's what you want! I hope that's sarcasm, because because a rangefinder with high fps and recording HD video would be pretty silly.

Still, I wouldn't mind a pentax rangefinder for use with the pancake ltd's
02-19-2008, 01:07 AM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by benplaut Quote
That's not what you think, that's what you want! I hope that's sarcasm, because because a rangefinder with high fps and recording HD video would be pretty silly.

Still, I wouldn't mind a pentax rangefinder for use with the pancake ltd's
For a K1000D is would be sweet
02-19-2008, 05:08 AM   #19
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Integrated grip, faster mirror/shutter assembly, SAFOX IX, more ISO levels unlocked. Really these are the only ways to make smoething bigger than K20D and cheaper than 645D imho

02-19-2008, 05:21 AM   #20
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I just don't see so much room at the top of the line to introduce a model that's distinctly better than the K20D... so much better that it's not just a next gen model, a K30D but instead a K1D. Unless it's FF, but they've ruled that out.

On the other hand, I do see room at the "bottom" of the line, cheaper than the K200D. Get rid of all extraneous features: no scene modes, no weatherproofing. Make the body smaller and lighter. Keep it at 6MP. Design it as a first SLR but for those who want to learn real photography. Pair it with a pancake to make it the smallest DSLR on the market, at a price cheaper than the K100D.

That would sell like hotcakes since it'd be the new impulse purchase for new photogs, many Pentax owners would get one as a second camera, students would flock to it, etc. That's where I see room in the market.

Oh, and yes, this is wishful thinking!
02-19-2008, 06:24 AM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by ankit Quote
Not all Sony glass is rebadged Minolta. And the rebadged Minolta lenses they did pick up are really good ones - most Minolta users would argue they are better than Canon L glass anyways..
I shot minolta for 10 years and although their G glass is very good indeed on film, but its not better than most of the Canon equivalent despite (in the UK) being even more expensive. However being very good on film does not translate into being good on digital necessarily. In fact, if you take the Canon example, their F4 zooms (17-40L, 24-105L and 70-200L) are the best performing on their FF bodies. By comparison the F2,8 versions at twice the price have problems with vignetting, corner CA etc. Issues which would never have shown up on film.

QuoteOriginally posted by ankit Quote
More seriously though, I expect Sony to release another 3-4 Carl Zeiss lenses with the FF camera in September. That, coupled with the already existing 3 CZ FF lenses would be a strong starting lineup imo. I just realized the other day that Sony is the only company with a stabilized (thanks to the sensor based SSS), modern, high performance 24-70mm lens (the new Carl Zeiss). The corresponding Nikon and Canon offerings are non-stabilized, and arguably not as good as the CZ from the initial reviews.
My point is how many people with $5000 for a camera plus lenses will jump from Canon/Nikon to Sony? Existing users, fine. They may even steal a few Pentax users back, but they will have to create real sticker shock to pull people over from the big two and with their current lens pricing I cant see it.
02-19-2008, 07:54 AM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by *isteve Quote
The new DSLR will be a high spec APSC camera - much like the outgoing Nikon D2X only with a second generation Samsung CMOS sensor and a price more like the D300. I suspect the major R&D effort will go into an upgraded metering and AF system that will hold its own with the D3 and 1D series. Such a system would be required if they decided to re-enter the pro SLR market with a FF camera later on.

They may look at a FF DSLR in 2-3 years but all that will depend on how many D3s, A900's and 5D replacements get sold. I suspect you should keep a close watch on the lens roadmap because unless they are going to ship a whole raft of new lenses at the same time as an FF camera its going to be pretty useless. If there is a decent margin in FF they will go there eventually but not unless they can make real money out of the body and lenses.

Whether they build and ship the 645D is another issue. Right now they do not have the professional support infrastructure that would be needed to supply and service such a camera to working pros. However last I heard they were aiming to hit the market at a price that undercut Mamiya and would atttract Canon 1DS users at around the $8000 mark.

Still a big gap, but the 1DS aint cheap either.
I think so too. It will be a K20D with faster frame rates, improved AF but still an APS-C camera. Pentax intended the K10D to be a competitor of the Nikon D200, in price if not in speed, but the A100 from Sony derailed that plan. Pentax had to price the K10D to compete with the Sony A100 instead.

I think Pentax is not going to either use or be allowed to use the Sony 24mp full frame sensor, since Pentax skipped the Sony 12mp CMOS sensor. If the Sony full frame sensor is reasonably priced, I see no reason why Pentax cannot make a profit with it. But if a 24mp full frame Pentax costs $5,000 or more, there may be very few customers for it. A Samsung full frame will probably be a lot cheaper for Pentax. And it will probably take Samsung 2-3 years to develop one.

The Kodak CCD sensor for a 645D is currently too expensive for Pentax to compete against the Mamiya. Perhaps Samsung can develop a medium format CMOS sensor for Pentax. If and when that happens, we may finally see an affordable medium format digital camera, and we may then see the 645D. Otherwise the 645D will probably never happen.
02-19-2008, 08:02 AM   #23
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QuoteOriginally posted by *isteve Quote
My point is how many people with $5000 for a camera plus lenses will jump from Canon/Nikon to Sony? Existing users, fine. They may even steal a few Pentax users back, but they will have to create real sticker shock to pull people over from the big two and with their current lens pricing I cant see it.
For what it's worth, I have read from a number of people (people who have provided highly accurate information before) that Sony's FF camera will be in the $2000-$3000 range, to compete with the Canon 5D replacement. One thing in Sony's favor is the Carl Zeiss name. If there is one thing Canon users lust for more than L glass, it is Carl Zeiss glass. And Sony would probably be the only way they could get a FF sensor with AF CZ glass and in-body stabilization. At least, that is what Sony is hoping would be its unique selling point. The CZ 12-24 (rumored), CZ 24-70, and the CZ 70-200 (also rumored), along with a 3-5 CZ prime lenses might be enough to tempt some nikon/canon users.

02-19-2008, 08:11 AM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by *isteve Quote
I shot minolta for 10 years and although their G glass is very good indeed on film, but its not better than most of the Canon equivalent despite (in the UK) being even more expensive. However being very good on film does not translate into being good on digital necessarily. In fact, if you take the Canon example, their F4 zooms (17-40L, 24-105L and 70-200L) are the best performing on their FF bodies. By comparison the F2,8 versions at twice the price have problems with vignetting, corner CA etc. Issues which would never have shown up on film.

My point is how many people with $5000 for a camera plus lenses will jump from Canon/Nikon to Sony? Existing users, fine. They may even steal a few Pentax users back, but they will have to create real sticker shock to pull people over from the big two and with their current lens pricing I cant see it.
Don't forget there are still some people who are shooting film with Contax/Yashica cameras and Carl Zeiss lenses. These people may like the idea of a Sony full frame with Carl Zeiss lenses. The Minolta lenses appear to have been designed with the help of Leica. The Minolta 100mm macro, for example, scores exactly the same as the Leica 100mm macro in photodo.com. For many years Minolta helped out Leica with the SLR film cameras, and Leica probably helped in lens design as a favor in return. Not sure I agree with you that film camera lenses do not work well on digital. There are many who disagree. In fact, the demand for new APS-C only lenses is why many camera makers are reluctant to go full frame. Full frame DSLR cameras can use the existing film camera lenses and there are lots of them already in existence. A camera maker selling a full frame sells fewer lenses, and it may be one reason why full frame camera bodies are so expensive (to compensate for lost lens sales).

Don't forget that Sony's full frame flagship will be the only full frame DSLR with in body shake reduction. That may not persuade many Canon or Nikon users to switch, but it just may cause more than a few Pentax users to switch, if Pentax is late once again to market with products that people really want. If Sony prices the flagship at, say, $3,500 or less, then it can even cause some Nikon users to switch, unless Nikon brings out a cheaper full frame than the D3.
02-19-2008, 08:55 AM   #25
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I assume the sony FF will be expensive, knowing sony.
02-19-2008, 09:00 AM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by ankit Quote
For what it's worth, I have read from a number of people (people who have provided highly accurate information before) that Sony's FF camera will be in the $2000-$3000 range, to compete with the Canon 5D replacement. One thing in Sony's favor is the Carl Zeiss name. If there is one thing Canon users lust for more than L glass, it is Carl Zeiss glass. And Sony would probably be the only way they could get a FF sensor with AF CZ glass and in-body stabilization. At least, that is what Sony is hoping would be its unique selling point. The CZ 12-24 (rumored), CZ 24-70, and the CZ 70-200 (also rumored), along with a 3-5 CZ prime lenses might be enough to tempt some nikon/canon users.
The current A700 price is $1400 at B&H. If they manage to make one for $2000 they will be doing pretty well. Still, I have been wrong before. I'd love to know what margin they will make on it though.
02-19-2008, 11:51 AM   #27
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Come on, a cheap Sony? Impossible
02-19-2008, 12:49 PM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by and Quote
if they release a higher end dSLR within the next 1.5 years then it wont be FF, yea.

But why does the 645 keep coming up as an alternative to a FF dSLR. Do you really think ppl who want a pentax version of the canon 5D or even nikon D3 will buy a 645 camera instead? do you really think this is an altenative? An MF camera is different from a dSLR,with muchlarger mirror and larger lenses and most importantly lenses that are not compatible with dSLR lenses. Furthermore it will deffinetley be more expensive than a canon 5D. Look at the prices of MF cameras they are extremely expensive. If I had to sell my k10d and all my pentax lenses to upgrade to a 645 with new lenses, then I might as well buy a Nikon D3 with nikon lenses instead if I had unloaded all my Pentax gear, would most likely be cheaper too.
645D keeps coming up because Pentax is a recognized player in the MF field and already has a proven stable of lenses for the 645 format. This could save substantial amounts of lens R&D and engineering. It would also allow Pentax to leapfrog Canon and Nikon in resolution in a relatively affordable package with affordable lenses. If you don't think this would compete then why do certain pros spend $20-30K on Leaf back for their Hassys and Mamiyas? Is it a niche market? Naturally, but so is the high-end full frame (aka 35mm equiv) DSLR market.

Hmmmmm, think I'm gonna start stocking up on 645 lenses before the prices go up....
02-19-2008, 01:49 PM   #29
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Would make sense , esp. since they make the real $$$ on the glass. NT

NT ------------------

QuoteOriginally posted by *isteve Quote
The current A700 price is $1400 at B&H. If they manage to make one for $2000 they will be doing pretty well. Still, I have been wrong before. I'd love to know what margin they will make on it though.
02-19-2008, 05:49 PM   #30
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QuoteOriginally posted by MRRiley Quote
645D keeps coming up because Pentax is a recognized player in the MF field and already has a proven stable of lenses for the 645 format. This could save substantial amounts of lens R&D and engineering. It would also allow Pentax to leapfrog Canon and Nikon in resolution in a relatively affordable package with affordable lenses. If you don't think this would compete then why do certain pros spend $20-30K on Leaf back for their Hassys and Mamiyas? Is it a niche market? Naturally, but so is the high-end full frame (aka 35mm equiv) DSLR market.

Hmmmmm, think I'm gonna start stocking up on 645 lenses before the prices go up....
Hmm, maybe I should do that too...

QuoteOriginally posted by ankit Quote
For what it's worth, I have read from a number of people (people who have provided highly accurate information before) that Sony's FF camera will be in the $2000-$3000 range, to compete with the Canon 5D replacement. One thing in Sony's favor is the Carl Zeiss name. If there is one thing Canon users lust for more than L glass, it is Carl Zeiss glass. And Sony would probably be the only way they could get a FF sensor with AF CZ glass and in-body stabilization. At least, that is what Sony is hoping would be its unique selling point. The CZ 12-24 (rumored), CZ 24-70, and the CZ 70-200 (also rumored), along with a 3-5 CZ prime lenses might be enough to tempt some nikon/canon users.
Well, Pentax itself is also known to make great lenses, only that the recent quality control issues regarding the DA* lenses hurt Pentax's rep some. The FA* and FA Limiteds, though, have been consistently ranked high, with the guy over at Luminous Landscape comparing it to Zeiss lenses in one article (I'll look for the link later on). I have no doubt that they'll get the QC issues sorted out, and those who got good copies of the DA* lenses certainly are raving about them.

QuoteOriginally posted by Anastigmat Quote
I think so too. It will be a K20D with faster frame rates, improved AF but still an APS-C camera. Pentax intended the K10D to be a competitor of the Nikon D200, in price if not in speed, but the A100 from Sony derailed that plan. Pentax had to price the K10D to compete with the Sony A100 instead.

I think Pentax is not going to either use or be allowed to use the Sony 24mp full frame sensor, since Pentax skipped the Sony 12mp CMOS sensor. If the Sony full frame sensor is reasonably priced, I see no reason why Pentax cannot make a profit with it. But if a 24mp full frame Pentax costs $5,000 or more, there may be very few customers for it. A Samsung full frame will probably be a lot cheaper for Pentax. And it will probably take Samsung 2-3 years to develop one.

The Kodak CCD sensor for a 645D is currently too expensive for Pentax to compete against the Mamiya. Perhaps Samsung can develop a medium format CMOS sensor for Pentax. If and when that happens, we may finally see an affordable medium format digital camera, and we may then see the 645D. Otherwise the 645D will probably never happen.
Er, give Sony some credit. They've got good business acumen and won't pout that Pentax didn't buy the 12MP sensor you wanted so much. If they think they'll make a profit from making the 24MP FF sensor available and Pentax wanted to buy, they certainly will sell it.

I'm not tech-savvy enough to make an educated guess as to how long Samsung could conceivably take to develop a FF sensor, but I'm guessing if they started now, that could take only a year. It may even be the case that they're already working on one (or a medium-format one) seeing how the market is shaping up.

My guess is we'll be seeing the 645D in the future, if only because it will trump the FF's bigger-is-better marketing push, and that the camera itself is nearly ready, and might only be awaiting for a new sensor (possibly made by Samsung) to be put in.
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