[Levi]

Levi,

Most Auto plants make the turn around from one model to the next in 2 weeks, or at least that is what they did back in Detroit when I was calling on them. With new processes like "Just in time" and "Flex flow" that time should be even faster. The K20D isn't that much different than the K10D so setting up a new line can't be the reason.

How would your management react if they didn't have any motors to ship for 90 days?

The point is they do have cameras to ship, just not the one you want.

But I guess you're right, they've probably just been taking one long coffee break.........
I seriously doubt that you've had any experience actually working in a manufacturing environment. I consider it a small miracle that they are able to do as good as they do.

For you to be satisfied they would have to be ready to ship the new cameras on the same day they were announced, which would of course be the day after they ended production on the old models.

[regken]

Levi,


The point is they do have cameras to ship, just not the one you want.

.

I'm afraid you are not aware of the fact Pentax has not shipped any cameras since December. They stopped making the k10D and the K100D early December. So it's not a case of the camera I want, it's a case of them not shipping any cameras

[mattdm]

My guess is: they sold way more of the K10Ds then they planned to. They thought there'd be enough inventory out-in-the-world to last, but there wasn't. Not the greatest situation, but on the other hand, there's lots worse problems than that.

[Tom Lusk]

A friend of mine down in Bar Harbor just called to let me know he can hear you repeatedly banging your head against the wall - despite the distance.

Please stop as he's having a hard time hearing his stereo.

[regken]

A friend of mine down in Bar Harbor just called to let me know he can hear you repeatedly banging your head against the wall - despite the distance.

Please stop as he's having a hard time hearing his stereo.

LOL!!!Thanks Tom, I needed that.

[SuperAkuma]

I am guessing they are doing it to build up hype and it worked.

[barondla]

They had enough K10D/K100D for the transition. They sold many more in that time period than projected. When a large chain like Ritz buys all your cameras this is what happens. Would have barely made a ripple in Canikon stock. Pentax is small.
thanks
barondla

[Pål Jensen]

The point is they stopped making the K10D and K100D in December. What have they been doing since?

Isn't that obvious? Making K20D and K200D!

[raz-0]

I'm baffled by Pentax's manufacturing. I have a question for any of you that have worked in or been connected with any type of manufacturing. What would you think if a manufacturer decided not to ship their major product for 90 days? That's 25% of your yearly production.

If you have inventory, and it involves a chip fab at some point, then I would think a 90 day lag from end of one product to beginning of another is pretty normal. FRankly given when the k10 production stopped, and k20 availability is starting, I'm surprized the paper launch was only in January. I'd have expected end of December.

[wasupdoc]

Last K10 Rolls off the assembly line December 10. First test-run of K20's roll off the assembly line December 31. Bugs are worked out and production begins in earnest January 12. Stock builds up for a month and shipments begin leaving the phillipines in early February. Dealers start getting stock two weeks later. First person has their K20D on February 22.

All dates are made up, but I fail to see the problem and am actually suprised they were able to pull it off this quickly. I would guess that some part of their factory was being tooled up to produce K20s several weeks before the last K10 rolled off the line.

I think they have done quite well.

Mike

[mattdm]

If you have inventory, and it involves a chip fab at some point, then I would think a 90 day lag from end of one product to beginning of another is pretty normal. FRankly given when the k10 production stopped, and k20 availability is starting, I'm surprized the paper launch was only in January. I'd have expected end of December.

Yeah, but that's not all in the same factory, is it? Why not keep making the old bodies until the new parts are starting to come in?

[lol101]

Last K10 Rolls off the assembly line December 10. First test-run of K20's roll off the assembly line December 31. Bugs are worked out and production begins in earnest January 12. Stock builds up for a month and shipments begin leaving the phillipines in early February. Dealers start getting stock two weeks later. First person has their K20D on February 22.

All dates are made up, but I fail to see the problem and am actually suprised they were able to pull it off this quickly. I would guess that some part of their factory was being tooled up to produce K20s several weeks before the last K10 rolled off the line.

I think they have done quite well.

Mike

Actually, you're right on the money: Calumet received (and sold) their first K20D shipment yesterday...

But of course Pentax are nothing but a bunch of lazy guys sitting on their hands...

[WendyB]

The point is they stopped making the K10D and K100D in December. What have they been doing since?

They all took a break, quit golfing as a sport, then decided tiddlywinks was much more fun to devote their spare time to and learn how to play.

Realistically The K20D will be shipping mid March with pre-orders filled first.

[falconeye]

Realistically The K20D will be shipping mid March with pre-orders filled first.

As lol has written above, K20D is already shipping in the U.S. and, I'm giving the news here, it starts shipping to customers in Germany on monday or tuesday.

[Ray Pulley]

I'm baffled by Pentax's manufacturing. I have a question for any of you that have worked in or been connected with any type of manufacturing. What would you think if a manufacturer decided not to ship their major product for 90 days? That's 25% of your yearly production. I've always found it a little hard to sell out of an empty wagon. The only logic I can come up with is they expect to sell so many of the new bodies in the next 9 months they need the 3 months of extra production to meet the demand because of lack of production facilities. That is a very risky proposition if that is what they are doing.

I've been around a lot of manufacturers in the past and have never seen anybody take this approach before. I'd love to know what the truth is behind their reasoning.

Regards,

Ken

30+ years in electronics manufacturing here, including many years managing the operations, logistics, inventory, and so on.

I have not manufactured purely retail goods, which have different dynamics, but the bottom line amounts to the lead time in the entire pipeline plus how much capacity you have in your system.

Based upon what I have seen from Pentax in the last 2 - 3 years, and little tidbits of information like the announcement a few years back about enlarging the lens factory (8,000 square meter adition, IIRC, which is NOT a huge facility addition), I can deduce that Pentax does not have a large manufacturing capacity, and that it is basically fully utilized.

So, if your system is close to full utilization, and the new products do not almost exactly fit your "old" tooling, fixturing, procedures and employee training, by definition you cannot easily run the old products alongside the new. Even if the tooling and training were all but the same, if you are running at or near capacity, you certainly cannot "double up" and run the new products at the same time as the old. Assuming equal run rates, you would need 2x the capacity to run two products where you used to run one. However, once you were completely switched over, you would no longer need 2x capacity (unless your new gadget is wildly successful) so now what?

Now you have to consider your lead times. If your lead time from material procurement through to the delivery to the distributors or retailers is very short, then the problem is minimized and basically amounts to how long it takes you to start up the new process and get the new system running, assuming you planned everything properly and started all of the initial tooling and material procurement well before the switchover.

However, if your lead times from initial material procurement through delvery is long (lets say 4 months just as an example), then you have to try and predict EXACTLY how many units of each "old" product will be needed to cover the 4 month period because you cannot run the new product in parallel to the old. I have worked on many product release plans, and there is no way to exactly predict future demand with enough precision to make sure that no one runs out anywhere in the world while at the same time you do not get stuck with unsold inventory that you cannot move.

Many of the camera makers got seriously burned by excess inventories in the bad old last days of film cameras in the late '90's, so most of them have made efforts to implement Just in Time inventory systems which strive to minimize any extra inventories. In other words, you do not make extra units or buy extra parts that you might never sell.

In the case of a end of life product, once you take your best guess as to when Engineering will be done with the new product, and also how many old units you will sell while you tool up the new products, you are stuck with however that plays out in terms of availability of product in the pipeline.

As you might be able to guess, if Engineering is late, you will run out of the old product, and trust me, Engineering is always late.

Also, I am quite sure that having extra parts and assemblies is a big no-no these days (especially with Mother Hoya looking over your shoulder), so I expect that running out is preferred over having unsold units when the new product hits the shelves. After all, unless they are at fire-sale prices, who will want a K10 when the K20 is available? In fact, even announcing a new product will likely cause people to stop buying the old product, so you have to account for that as well.

At the end of the day, even were things to be planned perfectly, there would be a gap in availability to make sure that all of the old product was cleared well before the new product was even announced and to minimize the amount of unsold inventory in the pipeline.

Ray