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02-27-2013, 05:26 PM   #136
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I'm sorry, Falk, but I don't really agree with your formula.
You don't need to. It was empirical anyway.

However, even if you don't agree, the formula is great to illustrate the massive increase in price which comes with diameter d. Price increases faster than d^3 (empirically, I found d^3.26 -- this means that one more stop triples the price). So at least, we know a 560/5.6 or 400/4 should only cost half of a 500/4. And really, I can't see this with the DA560/5.6.

02-28-2013, 12:18 AM   #137
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QuoteOriginally posted by RockvilleBob Quote
Exactly - I can keep my excellent K-5 system for all photography except wildlife where I'd like a 500 to 600 lens. For wildlife I'd probably go with an older used Canon Pro body, one with demonstrated fast focus, and a used Canon lens. My reason for Canon over Nikon is there are more used Canon lenses available.

So I am really looking forward to the Forum test of the Sigma 500 and Pentax 560. If these lenses turn out to be high performers than I'd probably add the Sigma just because of price and a stop faster (probably equates to faster focus also.) The Pentax 560 would be an option if its performance is top notch, focus is fast and the price dropped significantly. If both the Sigma and Pentax turn out good but not top notch, then I would lean to buying a used Canon system - probably a top pro body two generations back from their newest model - more than enough pixels to make great prints with a great lens. To me being able to buy a high grade long lens is the driver. A well cared for, used Canon or Nikon will perform terrific.
There are plenty of Sigma 500/4.5 shooters here with outstanding images. Just browse backwards (it is very long already) this thread, for example: https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/lens-clubs/55946-300mm-plus-lens-club-dis...enses-447.html
02-28-2013, 12:22 AM   #138
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Falk:
The problem with that formula is that you're calculating a price which is way off market's realities. There is no $5800 500mm f/4 lens, for example; the Nikon is $8400 (street price), and the fluorite-equipped Canon is $10400 (street price). Not even the Sigma 500 f/4.5 match; it's street price is $5000 ($1000 higher than the calculation) and the MSRP was $6000 - that was 7 years ago, before the overall price increases. Canon's 400 f/4 DO is $6500.
02-28-2013, 01:03 AM   #139
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
Falk:
The problem with that formula is that you're calculating a price which is way off market's realities. There is no $5800 500mm f/4 lens, for example; the Nikon is $8400 (street price), and the fluorite-equipped Canon is $10400 (street price). Not even the Sigma 500 f/4.5 match; it's street price is $5000 ($1000 higher than the calculation) and the MSRP was $6000 - that was 7 years ago, before the overall price increases. Canon's 400 f/4 DO is $6500.
Price today in europe (best prices found on the internet) :
Nikon 500f4 VR ii (new) 7440 euros
Pentax DA560 : 6891 euros
Sigma 500f4.5 Pentax mount : 4769 euros

The Pentax is simply not competive from a price point of view vs the Nikon, at leats with the european prices : one stop faster, only 600 euros more; they will hardly sell a dozen in whole europe at this price point

02-28-2013, 01:07 AM   #140
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
OTOH decreasing the price in itself won't necessarily bring you a higher profit. I have a hard time accepting that a HD DA 560mm will be profitable at $2500 MSRP (which is not comparable price for the same level of functionality).
As you said, decreasing price induces higher volumes and decrease unary production costs, that can lead to higher profits... or not. The equation is not simple. We are speaking in europe of prices between 3000-4000 euros, including 19 % VAT. $ 4537 without VAT.
02-28-2013, 04:30 AM   #141
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QuoteOriginally posted by Greyser Quote
There are plenty of Sigma 500/4.5 shooters here with outstanding images. Just browse backwards (it is very long already) this thread, for example: https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/lens-clubs/55946-300mm-plus-lens-club-dis...enses-447.html
Thanks I will check it out. It seems like a long wait to Christmas.
02-28-2013, 05:33 AM - 1 Like   #142
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A humble opinion, probably incorrect but possible (and an industry expert such as Falk will correct me if wrong):

I wonder whether many here appreciate the way lenses are made now (and in some cases might always have been). The days of a room full of Japanese men in short-sleeved white shirts sitting on a stool before a table full of parts boxes day after day after day assembling the same camera body or lens -



*Nagano, Japan - Mark Hama builds Mat 124G's at the Yashica factory.



those days are long gone. Today (and probably for 50 years for some items) a camera company plans to build a certain number of items, trains its assemblers, allocates space and time in a clean warehouse plant in Vietnam or Thailand, builds the "run" quite quickly, and warehouses the stock until it is exhausted.

A product that has a constant buy stream such as the FA50/1.4 or the FA Limiteds or many DA lenses might have more production runs scheduled - but they are runs, not (usually) a constant daily trickle of assembled product to meet daily demand. Pentax's rumored production run of 500 units a month (if in fact correct) would then be to build a planned stock of the lens for its total life.

Once the stock is built production will cease and the assemblers will be trained to make something else. John Carlson's statement about the K-01, when asked if it has been discontinued, that "the production run is complete," is a wonderful euphemism but is indicative of this manufacturing strategy. The Fire Sale pricing of the K-01 indicates Pentax determined it would not likely empty the inventory in any reasonable amount of time, so they cleared it - small money now beats no money later.

We can't know what annual sales pace Pentax built into their pricing and manufacturing model, nor the cost of capital they built into the model, but it could turn out that they will be happy to sell a few copies a year for ten years from this intial production run. It seems inexplicable to us but to them it might make sense. If the DA560 sells at the pace Pentax projected (whatever that pace is) the price will stay fairly firm. If it doesn't sell well or if new competition changes the selling pace, expect either a gradual or more robust "Clearance": pricing of the lens.

Of course, that could be years down the road.

Last edited by monochrome; 02-28-2013 at 08:01 AM.
02-28-2013, 06:15 AM   #143
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QuoteOriginally posted by goubejp Quote
The Pentax is simply not competive from a price point of view vs the Nikon, at leats with the european prices : one stop faster, only 600 euros more; they will hardly sell a dozen in whole europe at this price point
I'm not saying it is competitive; but that a $2500 price is completely unrealistic. You are talking about a price point significantly higher than Falk's estimation, anyway.

monochrome, the initial production volume of 400 units/month is official information, from Pentax Japan (they are publishing such information in the Japanese announcements). I'm not sure if that means they'll make only 400, though.
I would also add that in few years Pentax should change dramatically, if we were to believe targets like doubling sales and such will be successful. Thus, a product made to be as "efficient" (think: margins; Hoya did) as possible with very few units sold could be re-targeted.
But as you said, "that could be years down the road".

02-28-2013, 06:28 AM   #144
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
A humble opinion, probably incorrect but possible (and an industry expert such as Falk will correct me if wrong):
I think lens manufacturing is no different than mobile phone manufaturing for exemple, and as such, i think you described exactly the process and way it's done today.
02-28-2013, 06:33 AM - 1 Like   #145
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QuoteOriginally posted by goubejp Quote
The Pentax is simply not competive from a price point of view vs the Nikon
remember that Nikon and Canon provide many of those lens during event like olympic games to pro, as such, Nikon can afford to produce huge batch of such lens, with the idea of reducing drastically the cost of manufacturing because of this renting / replacement policy pro pay for. And all the unit will have maybe 10 or 15 years of use wich is in the long run very beneficial, but not in the short run.

Pentax and Sony can't do that for example. And like many did say you are comparing a Street price with MSRP, wich is by defnition not really relevant.
02-28-2013, 08:29 AM   #146
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I'm not saying it is competitive; but that a $2500 price is completely unrealistic. You are talking about a price point significantly higher than Falk's estimation, anyway.
You may be right about unrealistic. But not because my formula is wrong.

I invite you to plot lens prices against diameter (the first order cost-determining factor) for lenses with 72mm to 150mm diameter (200/2.8, 300/4 to 600/4, 800/5.6). Lenses with no fluorite and no VR (or allow for adding cost for either feature) and from various suppliers. All such lenses use ED glass (some have 3 such elements) and inner focussing with ultrasonic AF.

And then come up with a different formula. That would be a contribution to the discussion. Until then, it doesn't help.

I'd welcome the exercise since I did mine two years ago and it may not be valid anymore.

BTW, the use of VR (shake reduction) increased the price of lenses featuring it considerably (as did a fast AF -- but that is common across the field now). And fluorite made the prices actually explode (almost double). So, don't compare apples to oranges. The DA560 is a very simple optical design and should sell for less, not more, than my formula. OTOH, more complex optical designs (we speak of more than 20 elements sometimes!) should sell more expensive than my formula. All further diferences should be due to different marketing strategies.
02-28-2013, 10:16 AM   #147
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QuoteOriginally posted by aurele Quote
And like many did say you are comparing a Street price with MSRP, wich is by defnition not really relevant.
No I don't; I compare current prices available on web stores for lenses in stock or available within a couple of days
02-28-2013, 11:00 AM   #148
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QuoteOriginally posted by goubejp Quote
No I don't; I compare current prices available on web stores for lenses in stock or available within a couple of days
It is not irrelevant but it should be taken into account.
The same way you compare an older body to a newer one.
Of course the new one will be more expensive, regardless of performance.
02-28-2013, 11:06 AM   #149
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
You may be right about unrealistic. But not because my formula is wrong.
Indeed. In fact Ricoh might simply have decided to pursue the project as it was decided by Hoya untouched.
Meaning the the lens itself AND the quantity and price of it.
It would explain the whole thing. This is a remnant of Hoya. This IS a Hoya product. (I think)
02-28-2013, 11:27 AM   #150
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QuoteOriginally posted by goubejp Quote
No I don't; I compare current prices available on web stores for lenses in stock or available within a couple of days
QuoteOriginally posted by thibs Quote
The same way you compare an older body to a newer one.
Of course the new one will be more expensive, regardless of performance.
thank you !

QuoteOriginally posted by thibs Quote
This is a remnant of Hoya. This IS a Hoya product.
it seems that for now Ricoh didn't do anything except launching product design under Hoya, AFAIK an AFAI read in "Pentax wants to hear you" thread.
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