Originally posted by Pål Jensen You do the mistake of equaling value with sensor size. It is not so. Theres no reason why you cannot have the same margin on high end APS as FF. Theres no automatic wish for everyone using APS to "upgrade" to FF. Besides, the entry level FF cameras from Nikon and Canon are not high margin products; rumors has it that both the Canon 5D and 5D MKII had to be virtually given away at heavy discount and that it took years to clear stock. The D600 was immmediately reduced in price due to dissapointing initial sales reflectred in the marketshare of FF that is more or less static. I'm sure Sony's FF initatives are all economic disasters.
Five years ago (or was it less?) 12mp were all you could dream about from APS; now it is 24mp. Hence, the output quality of the smaller sensor is getting better making more people satisfied with its output. Better sensor only make smaller sensors more compelling. As FF marketshare is fixed, theres no reason why higher end APS should be less viable now than, say, four years ago.
Of course I equate market value with sensor size!!!
645D costs more than FF costs more than APS-C costs more than...
It is so. In fact, it's the primary dividing line between cameras on price point right now. This is very different than the 135 film days when you could upgrade a decent camera with better film.
Th data shows that FF is driving margins. It is commoditized APS-C that is powering unit sales but a low returns. The EU is in recession. China is growing less than anyone expected, and the Yen is recovering from a hangover, while the US is still recovering. It's no wonder $2,000 bodies struggle to sell.
Sony is a disaster anyway. They have a hedge calling for it to be split up.
I agree more people are happy with APS-C and FF is a costly dream. But they are still not going to pay price approaching what FF prosumers pay, and where there are gluts or over-production, prices fall. FF prices will grind down as APS-C did. Where bodies come down in price, so will lenses. APS-C top line cameras now compete with used D700's and soon a lot of D600's as some move up to the D800 and so on. An APS-C camera trying to come in at $1,600 for a body will not compete, but that's what the top-end norm was awhile ago. They've been displaced.
The industry right now is trying to milk margins on existing tech, like APS-C as it turns into commodity. They are over-pricing new products like MILC leading to fire sales and Thom Hogan's value rant (in which he is bang on IMO). It's not sustainable.
The Ricoh GR is a case in point. It's coming in only $100 more in price than its predecessors, with a much, much larger sensor and accompanying IQ. To top it off, it's got no smaller sensor companion. The GRD IV is discontinued. The GXR looks to be, too.
The price to value ratio is grinding down and there is no doubt it will continue to do so. And this will happen for lenses as well. People in the $300 body price point are not going to then look for a $700 lens. Some manufacturers will start to offer $300 lenses as well in similar FL's and speeds as what is on for $700. We are already seeing it in the middle FL's and this will keep going.