Originally posted by Class A I'm genuinely interested why you have been optimistic before but now are painting a pretty dark picture.
Now that's a legitimate question. I believe both are true, and that in December of 2011 Ricoh was very optimistic about aggressively investing in Pentax and developing market share - and Ricoh still is. What investment writers write is not necessarily what Ricoh will do, and whether earnings expectations are reduced early in 2013 doesn't mean they will necessarily be reduced in 6 months if the same investment is made by Ricoh.
What I don't think (and this is pure speculation) they anticipated was the first loss making year since Ricoh went public, and the necessity to take strong actions at the Business Machines company to control costs, rationalize their global employee count and distribution network and integrate IKON Office Systems (ourcahsed in 2008) into Ricoh. There was apparently significant waste and duplication in Business Systems. During that time Ricoh the parent company may have told Pentax Ricoh - you'll just have to wait. This program of restructuring is nearly complete and has apparently had strong positive effects on Ricoh financially.
Further, 4Q2011 globally was not a good time for camera makers generally. Canon and Nikon saw sales declines between 25% and 35%. Most others also saw declines. Where the corporate issues at Ricoh hurt Pentax was in the 2nd half of 2012, when the other companies brought new products and Pentax had - K30 (a hit), K5IIs, Q10 and K-01.
But as I wrote then, look at how many items they actually
did show at CP+!!
Of course if they now feel they can move Pentax (and I've only reported what I have read
happened, not what I think
will happen) the market has changed. The other guys have consolidated their positions, etc. As I said above, we'll see what happens in the next 12 months, but my bet is the global economy led by emerging countries will be OK. Never forget I'm just a guy from Missouri who reads about companies. I don't write Research Reports or anything like that.
I believe Ricoh has a (long term) plan for Pentax and we will (eventually) be happy.