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04-12-2013, 03:21 AM   #241
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
About the size, due to technological constraints the cameras will not be the smallest.
Which technological contraints would prevent Pentax from comming up with the smallest FF interchangable lens camera?

04-12-2013, 03:24 AM   #242
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
In Japan, Pentax's market share is declining, not increasing.

Shares in the Japanese SLR and SLT market (excluding the so-called mirrorless cameras)

2011: #1 Canon 46.3% - #2 Nikon 39.2% - #3 Pentax 7.5%
2012: #1 Canon 52.7% - #2 Nikon 35.1% - #3 Sony 7.1% (==> Pentax ≤ 5.1%)

Source: BCN ranking "BCN Awards" ???????(????) | ????????? | ??????????No1???????? BCN AWARD
Canon rises up.
Nikon declined too, according to this, but 4% drop from 39% to 35% is not same as a drop from 7.5% to 5.1%.
In latter case, it's almost 30% drop, and that hurts as hell. Add to that K-01's remarkable success. And a remarkable feat of the 645D, which has sold in amazing 4800 copies worldwide.

Now, I'm sure that is because Pentax was "highly innovative" in the 2011 and 2012, was ready for every challlenge, and their remarkable trend just continues. They are now *only* 9 months late to keep up with others resolution wise in their own APS-C arena, and about 9 years behind in number of bodies available in their most comprehensive lineup up to date — which counts unbelievable 2 camera models!

Jokes aside, considering they have 2 camera models only, loaded with 4-5 years old tech and a decade outdated AF system, this is a bloody miracle.

Last edited by Uluru; 04-12-2013 at 03:32 AM.
04-12-2013, 03:37 AM   #243
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In one year from 7,5% to 5,1%! At that rate, they hit 0% in only 2 years. Off course, the point at which it's not interesting anymore to stay in the business is not at 0%, but somewhere above that.
04-12-2013, 03:40 AM   #244
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QuoteOriginally posted by bxf Quote
Nope.

Do you really believe all the people walking around with their Canikons and kit lenses would choose a bulky FF, even if price was not a factor?
Accrding to stats, in Japan alone Canon owns 50% of the DSLR market. Worldwide, the number is even higher.
Now the more amazing number: Some stats say 20% of Canon's DSLR sold are FF Canons. Put it in numbers, and Canon sells more FF DSLRs alone than Pentax does of all of its DSLRs and K-01s, or anything that supports K-mount.

Put that into perspective, and see what actually drives Canon's DSLR sale forward: what do you seriously think that thing is?

A lack of FF in Canon's range, or the fact
- they invest into FF,
- that FF is the perfect ground to innovate, showcase great new tech and transfer that tech down into the APS-C territory,
- that they have already delivered 3 generations of the most successful FFs in camera history (5D, 5DII and 5DIII),
- that they have introduced proper video in DSLR first long ago, at a level Pentax doesn't have even today
- all of which lures people to try something new and exciting,
- that such investment keeps prices of their lenses and accessories steady and always in demand
- which keeps the mill spinning more, and more powerfully than what a plain vanilla APS-C, which everyone does, would ever do?


Last edited by Uluru; 04-12-2013 at 03:46 AM.
04-12-2013, 03:44 AM   #245
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Caution there: the figures I have provided above correspond to the Japanese market only, which represented 6.3% of the global DSLR+SLT market in volume and 7.8% in value in 2012.

Source: CIPA (Camera & Imaging Products Association) http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d_2012_e.pdf

Last edited by Mistral75; 04-12-2013 at 03:50 AM.
04-12-2013, 03:46 AM   #246
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QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
(...)
Now the more amazing number: 20% of Canon's DSLR sold are FF Canons.
(...)
Very interesting figure. Where did you find it?
04-12-2013, 04:19 AM   #247
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QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
Some stats say 20% of Canon's DSLR sold are FF Canons.
That seems to be a lot since on the Nikon side it appears to be more between 5 and 10% :

QuoteOriginally posted by Thom Hogan:
Will the Real FX Please Stand Up?

Dec 5, 2012 updated (commentary)--There seems to be some confusion over how well FX is or isn't doing. I've seen lots of speculation, much based upon over optimistic interpretation of a random number somewhere. Let's try to bring things back to some form of reality.

FX is not fizzling. Full frame camera sales are increasing. Nikon almost certainly sold more FX cameras in 2012 (D4, D3x, D700, D800, and D600) than they did in 2011 (D3s, D3x, D700). It would be hard not to, especially since no new high end DX DSLR has been seen from the company since September 2010. I'm sure that Nikon considers their FX push to be at least a modest success, and the numbers support that.

FX is not 15% of Nikon's interchangeable lens camera sales. Using cash register numbers in the US and the proportion of US sales to other regions, it probably is still around 5% through October 2012 (also see fourth bullet, below), but the D600 will change that right at the end of the year. We actually can't yet tell where FX sales will fall overall as opposed to DX because we don't have a full year of full FX product to compare against a full year of full DX product. The percentages do gyrate a bit with product introductions.

Nikon might not have sold 250,000 D800's yet; they likely haven't made 55,000 D4's, either. Nikon announced the capacity to make 30,000 FX bodies a month out of Sendai (25k D800, 5K D4). If you believe that Nikon just continued to make D800's at full capacity all during the time when people were complaining about getting ones with focus problems, then the maximum Nikon might have made so far is likely 250k. Made is not sold, though. Given non-air shipments from the factory to subsidiaries, there can be as much as a month lag between leaving Sendai and arriving at a dealer. Check to see if your dealer has any in stock. Many do. And remember that a lot of D800's were returned to dealers and Nikon due to the left sensor focus issue. Thus, even if 250,000 were made, that doesn't mean 250,000 have been sold as some are claiming. But I'm not sure 250,000 were made.

FX is not a majority of Nikon's interchangeable lens camera sales. From April through September, Nikon built and shipped 3.45 million interchangeable lens cameras. Of those, if Sendai built everything they could and those immediately sold (possible, since we're mostly talking about early D800 sales), only 180k were FX cameras. That's 5.2%. I've been saying 5% for FX sales for a while now. When the number actually really changes, I'll change my number ;~). Based upon Nikon's future forecasts, the number might hit 8.9% for the full fiscal year (April to April).

FX strength alone will not help Nikon to pass Canon in interchangeable lens cameras. Canon's last projection: 9.2 million units. Nikon's last projection: 7.1 million. Granted, Canon and Nikon are off by one quarter in their fiscal years, but that's a reasonably large gap to make up, and most people are estimating that Nikon's actual FX production will be less than 1m units a year at the moment. So, for Nikon to pass Canon it will have to fall on DX to pull its share upward.
So, is FX doing well? Yes, it is (but see last paragraph, below). It's kept the Sendai factory operating at or near capacity, and Nikon has an even bigger capacity for producing FX now that they've shifted the low end production to Thailand, where they have more flexibility.

Is FX replacing DX any time soon? Nope. Not until Nikon can come up with US$600, US$900 and US$1200 FX models and produce them in Thailand at DX levels. But the problem is sensor cost. I don't believe it is possible to produce even a US$1200 list price FX camera at the moment and keep anything close to historic profit margins. Remember, a US$1200 camera will eventually come down to US$900 at retail, which implies an eventual dealer cost of about US$750. Even if an FX sensor is only US$250 fully burdened in large quantities, that doesn't leave much room for anything else. (Again, for those of you just tuning in, image sensor costs scale dramatically upwards with area: a DX sensor is probably 1/10th the cost of an FX one, and the sensor is most expensive part in virtually all DSLRs.)
04-12-2013, 05:35 AM   #248
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
Which technological contraints would prevent Pentax from comming up with the smallest FF interchangable lens camera?
Relative to the APS-C DSLRs, not to the other manufacturer's FF DSLRs. A FF DSLR will be slightly larger than an APS-C one, given equal built.
Not that I care.

04-12-2013, 05:40 AM   #249
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
About the market share: figures for 2012 are IMO irrelevant, since that's just after Pentax was sold to Ricoh.
What product(s) has Ricoh released since then that would change that trend?
04-12-2013, 05:50 AM   #250
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Caution there: the figures I have provided above correspond to the Japanese market only, which represented 6.3% of the global DSLR+SLT market in volume and 7.8% in value in 2012.

Source: CIPA (Camera & Imaging Products Association) http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d_2012_e.pdf
One could safely assume that the Pentax numbers would be higher in Japan than other places.
04-12-2013, 05:55 AM   #251
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QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
Accrding to stats, in Japan alone Canon owns 50% of the DSLR market. Worldwide, the number is even higher.
Now the more amazing number: Some stats say 20% of Canon's DSLR sold are FF Canons.
Putting aside the questionable validity of this 20% figure, I would want to factor in the percentage of the FF buyers that are professionals, who would not be deterred by the bulk of FF. Until Pentax can take a significant share of the pro market, we are left only with the rest of the population, the majority of whom, I believe, would not jump for FF.

Just my opinion.
04-12-2013, 06:13 AM   #252
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QuoteOriginally posted by cali92rs Quote
What product(s) has Ricoh released since then that would change that trend?
Products which has a chance to do that will be launched this year (by Pentax Ricoh, though); which means they will only partially reflect into market shares values for this year.
We like it or not, it's a duration process. I'm impatient as well...
04-12-2013, 06:14 AM   #253
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QuoteOriginally posted by bxf Quote
Putting aside the questionable validity of this 20% figure, I would want to factor in the percentage of the FF buyers that are professionals, who would not be deterred by the bulk of FF. Until Pentax can take a significant share of the pro market, we are left only with the rest of the population, the majority of whom, I believe, would not jump for FF.

Just my opinion.
Exactly, and because Pentax currently is not considered as a brand for pro's, their FF camera should be aimed at the prosumers, advance amateurs, etc. Affordable and small enough for that category of users. Even if that means consessions. Like sacrificing a feature to keep the cost or form factor down. (Rather a feature then quality!)
04-12-2013, 06:27 AM   #254
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Pentax will sell loads of cameras if they give them a retro design like the MX and K1000. NOW is the time to cash on the fact that retro sells well...Just look at Olympus & Fuji.

In fact they are already experimenting with that (MX-1), so I think we can expect retro-DSLR's very soon. This will generate lots of interest, who cares about the Nth black shapeless blob with the Canon name on it

(In fact I think Pentax MUST do it otherwise there's not much to choose them over Canon & Nikon other than the fact that Pentax has lots of small primes).

Last edited by Ash; 04-13-2013 at 02:48 AM.
04-12-2013, 06:30 AM   #255
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QuoteOriginally posted by bxf Quote
Nope.

Do you really believe all the people walking around with their Canikons and kit lenses would choose a bulky FF, even if price was not a factor?
We have a camera now with a registration distance appropriate to 24x36. There's nothing inherent about that extra 4-6mm on a side (~1/4") that makes the camera all-that-much larger. The prism hump should be a bit bigger, sure.

The D600 is slightly bigger than the D7000, more or less.

The 6D is slightly smaller than the 7D.
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