[monochrome]

I love my SMC-A's and I would drop 2k on a full frame Pentax immediately. The viewfinder is priority #1 for me. No crop on my beloved old manual glass is priority #2. New lenses is low on my priority list. If I jump ship to a D600 my first lens will probably be a manual 24mm.

As would I - but .... - how many of us are there really, and after we all have our BBVF dSLR, how many more will Pentax sell?

[steelcup]

As would I - but .... - how many of us are there really, and after we all have our BBVF dSLR, how many more will Pentax sell?

It's a good question. Honestly most have probably already jumped ship. There's a used gear trade in event at my local camera store this weekend, and I'm taking everything but the K-01 and 15mm ltd down to it. If they take a serious chunk of change off a trade in for the D600 that's going to be it for me.

Thing is with Pentax, if they released a full frame, eventually I'd probably want to buy a new lens. The 31ltd would be fantastic. All of the FA ltds would. I'm sure they could make a great weatherproofed 24-70. I'd be in it for the whole full frame lens system eventually.

I have no interest in resigning to APS-C though. The 15 is the only one in my collection I think is worth the price I paid. I really feel like Pentax put all their cards in the DA system and now they are trying to convince everyone else it was a good move by sticking to their guns. Welp. Ya got me. And they are fantastic cameras and they can probably carve out a nice niche with K-30s, a flagship K-whatever IIs and all their DA lenses. Good for them.

[Docrwm]

What I find so interesting are the comments from folks about what everyone is going to do that are based firmly in their own perspective and nothing else. This approach seems strongest around here when it comes to two things FF and the status of Pentax's offerings.

On the FF issue - personally I just do not care. I am not going to buy a FF any time soon, don't sit up nights agonizing over FF or not to FF, and have no horse in the race. That said, my perspective on this isn't based on my desires but on what I think would be best for Pentax long-term - get a descent FF out onto the market and start offering a genuine full range of enthusiast and even Pro level gear. Niche APS-C just isn't cutting it. In the 2+ years I've been around here I've watched dozens of regulars disappear after saying something about wanting FF. I know that the ratio of people who are vocal here to actual users is small and extrapolating see a VERY large exodus from Pentax to Canikon and even Sony.

What stumps me even more, and I just don't seem mentioned often at all, is the complete lack of follow-through on a Tele-Converter. Probably the simplest optic to produce and yet Pentax has promised one for years and years without actually making one. For a company that has limited long glass the lack of a TC is even more of a short-fall in their gear selection. And it would be rather simple to rectify. Ah well.

P.S. In thinking about this more, I have to ask this: Why hasn't Pentax, if they really care about their users, just licensed the no longer produced Tamron TC that seems to work very well indeed on Pentax glass if designing one is such a stumper for them? There is both historical and current president for such a move (18-270 come to mind anyone).

[jsherman999]

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First off, good summary.

Or this can go another way, which I think is what some people are worried about:

...
New lenses for APS-C are only the cheapest entry-level models.

Like the 50 1.8 and 35 2.4 now? They're doing that without FF even being in the picture!

The 11-16mm DA★ lens definitely never happens, and there's no mid/high-grade weather-sealed 30mm or 35mm normal prime.

This is a legit concern if you intend to stick with aps-c; Pentax forgetting about the aps-c lenses they (sort-of, indirectly) promised.

But Pentax has been without FF all this time - have they introduced these lenses in that span?

APS-C camera bodies keep being made, but features like autofocus microadjust, customizable user modes, and jPEG ★★★★ quality are dropped from that lineup and moved to full-frame.

99% sure they wouldn't do that, at least not above the very lowest model. Nikon is famous for trying stuff like that, but even they have all the features in the D7000/7100.

If you want a nice APS-C camera, you're encouraged to move to Nikon and the D7200 or some other system entirely. If you wanted to keep using your DA Limited lenses, there may be a crop-sensor mode on the new full-frame, but you still have to pay an extra $1000 to get it.

You're basically just worried that aps-c will become the red-headed stepchild, that it will be neglected or even willfully devalued in order to try to move buyers up a tier. So noted, fair enough. I'll argue that the aps-c buyer will have more choices due to new FF lenses and Tokina/Tamron/Sigma/Zeiss/VL coming back to the mount. K-mount will be strengthened. aps-c abandonment is a fear, not a necessary consequence, not by a long shot.

I think an aps-c DSLR devaluation is much more likely eventually if there's no FF offering. If aps-c DSLR gets pinched by entry-FF on the top and mirrorless/m43 on the bottom, will what's left be a big enough market for Pentax to continue with K-mount?



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Last edited by jsherman999; 04-11-2013 at 04:26 PM.

[24X36NOW]

...and pentax makes multiple APS-Cs and still languishes faaaar behind Canikon. Clearly what they are doing now is not going to get them increased marketshare.

Clearly, but this seems to be the lesson they never learn, unfortunately.

[24X36NOW]

They have been on a steady increase in marketshare and currently outsells Sony. The coming model above the K-5II and the entry level below the K-30 will only increase their share.
Theres no way an FF camera will give Pentax significant higher marketshare. That fight has to be fought where the volume is...

Based on what? Japanese market stats?! If so, meaningless - if not, you need to provide a link to your source, since that sounds like utter BS.

[24X36NOW]

Based on history, the average consumer is going to get the APS one. A Nikon D400 will be extremely sucessful for its price.
It is a mistake to think that FF is an upgrade path. It isn't for most; and for everyone it also a sidestep. A high end APS camera is for those who prefer APS format. For many of those FF is no issue. There is no one way migration to FF. Theres also a migration the other way. APS is FF biggest competitor and so far it has been on the winning side saleswise. You'll see many FF owners switch to the D400 upon release....
An entry level Pentax doesn't have to make an impact on Nikon and Canon sales to be sucessful; it can sell over a million units anyway. However, an FF camera must since there are hardly enough potential Pentax FF users to make it viable otherwise.

APS-C has only been the sales winner due to price. That is the only reason for its existence and that reason is rapidly becoming a non-factor. As more FF cameras come to market at more affordable price points, the reasons for APS-C continue to evaporate. There is next to nothing in the way of FF to APS-C "converts" as compared with the other way round. FF is an upgrade path, unless you like tiny viewfinders and reduced image quality.

[Fontan]

I am thinking that the clock ticks much slower for you guys who judiciously post daily (I meant hourly) rants for things that you practically have no on troll over.

I envy all of you guys. It is sort of like living twice concurrently.

[24X36NOW]

That would be the MZ-D, it was killed around 2001 or 2002, way before Hoya. It was killed because the sensor was not very good...

Contax did release a camera with the same sensor. They promptly went out of business...

It was killed because Pentax realized that it wasn't going to sell at the required price point, given the cost of the sensor back then. It was going to be a $6,000 camera, and at the time it was a good move not to bring it to market. Now that they can bring a quality FF dSLR to market at less than half that price with extremely high quality, there is no reason not to other than an unwillingness to leave their comfort zone - and refusal to leave that comfort zone is killing Pentax.

[24X36NOW]

You're saying that the Pentaxians have already gone, and what remains is the APS-C-centric?

Wouldn't Pentax's lack of success, market-share wise, indicate that might in fact be what's happened?

Bingo!

[24X36NOW]

Or this can go another way, which I think is what some people are worried about:

Outcome 2, Alternate Version) Pentax initiates a new lens roadmap that includes 35mm-capable lenses, including some new * and Limiteds, and then comes out with a sweet, smallish, sexy-sexy FF body that uses them. New lenses for APS-C are only the cheapest entry-level models. The 11-16mm DA★ lens definitely never happens, and there's no mid/high-grade weather-sealed 30mm or 35mm normal prime. APS-C camera bodies keep being made, but features like autofocus microadjust, customizable user modes, and jPEG ★★★★ quality are dropped from that lineup and moved to full-frame. If you want a nice APS-C camera, you're encouraged to move to Nikon and the D7200 or some other system entirely. If you wanted to keep using your DA Limited lenses, there may be a crop-sensor mode on the new full-frame, but you still have to pay an extra $1000 to get it.

This isn't idle fear: it's exactly what Canon did with the 60D.

It is idle fear; Canon still has the 7D, which hasn't been stripped of content. One model being moved downmarket does not prevent you from buying a model that has the features you want. Camera makers will be happy to continue to make expensive cameras with cheap sensors for the shrinking market of those foolish enough to pay more for less viewfinder and image quality.

[Mistral75]

They have been on a steady increase in market share and currently outsells Sony. The coming model above the K-5II and the entry level below the K-30 will only increase their share.
There's no way an FF camera will give Pentax significant higher market share. That fight has to be fought where the volume is...

Based on what? Japanese market stats?! If so, meaningless - if not, you need to provide a link to your source, since that sounds like utter BS.

In Japan, Pentax's market share is declining, not increasing.

Shares in the Japanese SLR and SLT market (excluding the so-called mirrorless cameras)

2011: #1 Canon 46.3% - #2 Nikon 39.2% - #3 Pentax 7.5%
2012: #1 Canon 52.7% - #2 Nikon 35.1% - #3 Sony 7.1% (==> Pentax ≤ 5.1%)

Source: BCN ranking "BCN Awards" ???????(????) | ????????? | ??????????No1???????? BCN AWARD

[bxf]

APS-C has only been the sales winner due to price. That is the only reason for its existence and that reason is rapidly becoming a non-factor...

Nope.

Do you really believe all the people walking around with their Canikons and kit lenses would choose a bulky FF, even if price was not a factor?

[Clavius]

Nope.

Do you really believe all the people walking around with their Canikons and kit lenses would choose a bulky FF, even if price was not a factor?

They would if price AND size was not a big factor. That's where Pentax can be a real winner. Pentax has the knowledge and experience to be able to introduce worlds smallest FF interchangable lens camera, with WR to boot.

[Kunzite]

Pentax cannot possibly match APS-C prices with a FF product. And I'm not talking about the cheapest FF camera costing "only" double the price of a high-end APS-C one; best sold cameras are those entry levels.
About the size, due to technological constraints the cameras will not be the smallest.

About the market share: figures for 2012 are IMO irrelevant, since that's just after Pentax was sold to Ricoh.