[Rondec]

As to the comment that mirrorless are being priced too high, I think that will change.

Mirrorless are like any other new product format. Someone has to pay for the initial engineering and planning that goes into it. Generally, companies are going to want a product to carry its own overhead costs. I would expect that there is a lot of money currently being invested into reducing AF times for mirrorless. Someone has to pay for that.

As mirrorless products become more refined and formulaic, then expect prices to fall. If miirorless cameras, ilc, cannot be produced for less than DSLRs, then they probably deserve to go away.

I am sure that they are produced for less than DSLRs, but the problem is a company like Olympus will go broke if they can't squeeze money out of their top-end users. If they sell the OM-D for 500 or 600 dollars then, they have no top end offering.

[NickLarsson]

There may be a gender factor as well.

From my observations of the tourists here in Paris, most of the asian girls have mirrorless cameras like Nikon V1 and Sony NEX when the asian guys prefer to have a big Canikon DSLR on their neck.

Surely because of the less-intimidating form factor and the color options of mirrorless cameras ?

[Aristophanes]

Aristophanes, you said so on several occasions now and I am curious.

Computer Sales in Free Fall - WSJ.com

Worldwide PC sales tumble 14 per cent - Telegraph

PC Shipments Post the Steepest Decline Ever in a Single Quarter, According to IDC - prUS24065413

And if you follow some of the supply chain news this is just the beginning. Big chip sales projections and raw materials are all down.

If you look at it form a user's perspective the workstation computer isn't going anywhere. Some mobile workers ail use laptops, the majority will use desktops.

But for consumers and home users a completely different story (and increasingly, education). There the phone and tablet are starting to rule supreme. People don't want a "workstation" desktop at home and laptops can be too expensive unless they are crippled netbooks. Personal/home use of computers is increasingly veering towards tablet and AppleTV and smartphones. Cameras are subset of consumer electronics and have to follow because their main display parameters are going to be these same devices. At least larger sensor cameras are ready for 4k! And a large sensor image on a Retina display is pretty awesome.

So all these large file size cameras with RAW requiring color profiles and Photoshop edits are looking like a weak market to make a play for selling cameras. If I was Ricoh and I bought the K-mount, my first order of business would be to get my "platform" off the PC dependency or I will be locked into a stagnant market. This is especially true for demographic returns where young people's idea of digital consumption and creation is more Instagram than Photoshop. A DSLR can do either, so why base your Pentax/Ricoh sales on someone else's poor selling device?

Camera makers are starting to move there, but so slowly I believe it is contributing strongly toward stalled sales figures. Mirrorless is a modest step ahead of DSLR's. None of the major camera makers play nice with iOS or Android or Mobile Windows or Blackberry. The camera makers were sleeping while smartphones ate their P&S market (in 2 years!!!) and they are anemic at integrating with...almost everything. Nikon charges you extra to go wireless. They don't "get it". They think it's a sidebar feature rather than a core feature (after IQ).

After using a smartphone's instant image sharing, the whole concept of buying a DSLR and then marching the SD card into a slot, editing....etc...etc....etc....is NOT going to make a sale easier. Pentax can't even tether to a PC now, which is pathetic!

[Uluru]

And if you follow some of the supply chain news this is just the beginning. Big chip sales projections and raw materials are all down.

If you look at it form a user's perspective the workstation computer isn't going anywhere. Some mobile workers ail use laptops, the majority will use desktops.

But for consumers and home users a completely different story (and increasingly, education). There the phone and tablet are starting to rule supreme. People don't want a "workstation" desktop at home and laptops can be too expensive unless they are crippled netbooks. Personal/home use of computers is increasingly veering towards tablet and AppleTV and smartphones. ...

I'm not sure if your picture is complete, or does it mean a lot when presented as such.

The market surely moves towards tablets and smartphones, but on the other hand, as Tim Cook showed during the WWDC conference, the Macintosh market grew 100% in the last 5 years, compared to PC market growth of paltry 18% in the same that period. How that happened?

What numbers describe is that people are fed up with lack of innovation, not with PCs per se. Fact is that not a single PC vendor company apart from Apple has innovated anything in the computer-related arena since the first iMac — they are all copying what Apple is doing, and using inferior software and user-experience to deliver it. Therefore stagnation.

Apple is innovating madly and therefore can sell tablets, laptops and desktops at a much higher margin than any PC vendor. Where majority of mass-market PCs fall into the sub-$1000 territory, Apple's only computer selling for less than $1000 is Mac Mini.

The iMac is practically the benchmark for all other desktops, and a new Mac Pro is the crown of the workstation idea. I know a great deal of people that use their iMac as a both desktop computer, and a TV, but I didn't see anyone yet doing same with their Windows PCs.

So if anyone is interested to grow despite what numbers say, the answer is simple — innovation. Considering that we are moving into the post-PC era, cameras must be aware of it. And since all tablets and smartphones used for photo manipulation and share are also wireless-aware, in one way or the other, modern cameras must be too wireless aware — in one way or the other.

---

Last edited by Uluru; 06-17-2013 at 09:02 PM.

[Aristophanes]

I'm not sure if your picture is complete, or does it mean a lot when presented as such.

The market surely moves towards tablets and smartphones, but on the other hand, as Tim Cook showed during the WWDC conference, the Macintosh market grew 100% in the last 5 years, compared to PC market growth of paltry 18% in the same that period. How that happened?

What numbers describe is that people are fed up with lack of innovation, not with PCs per se. Fact is that not a single PC vendor company apart from Apple has innovated anything in the computer-related arena since the first iMac — they are all copying what Apple is doing, and using inferior software and user-experience to deliver it. Therefore stagnation.

Apple is innovating madly and therefore can sell tablets, laptops and desktops at a much higher margin than any PC vendor. Where majority of mass-market PCs fall into the sub-$1000 territory, Apple's only computer selling for less than $1000 is Mac Mini.

The iMac is practically the benchmark for all other desktops, and a new Mac Pro is the crown of the workstation idea. I know a great deal of people that use their iMac as a both desktop computer, and a TV, but I didn't see anyone yet doing same with their Windows PCs.

So if anyone is interested to grow despite what numbers say, the answer is simple — innovation. Considering that we are moving into the post-PC era, cameras must be aware of it. And since all tablets and smartphones used for photo manipulation and share are also wireless-aware, in one way or the other, modern cameras must be too wireless aware — in one way or the other.

The Mac market may be the exception due to the halo effect of the iPhone and iPad. It still doesn't take away from the fact that iOS will soon be more dominant than the MacOS. It was very clear from the tone of WWDC that iOS 7 had more going forward than Mavericks or even the new Mac Pro (aka the trashcan).

It's not really about innovation; it's about smaller, simpler, cheaper devices to perform the majority of digital experiences for average consumers. Digital photography falls into that category, yet none of the major camera manufacturers play nice with any of the mobile OS's. The average consumer DSLR or prosumer compact does not play nice with the average consumer's choice of platform or CPU.

Any camera manufacturer assuming as a prerequisite that the camera purchaser will also have a "digital darkroom" desktop/laptop PC is in trouble. That market is NOT where the new camera buyers are going to be because that is NOT where the new CPU purchasers are. Users who rely on desktop/high-power laptops to manage their digital media assets are increasingly looking to be the minority in the CPU market. Even Intel sees the problem:

Intel's new CEO regrets mobile market entry delay | bit-tech.net

Paul Otellini's Intel: Can the Company That Built the Future Survive It? - Alexis C. Madrigal - The Atlantic

My prediction: DSLR and mirrorless system camera sales will stall and perhaps decline in the near term. Causes are:

1) Market saturation; most hobbyist keeners have their gear
2) Longer life cycles for products of the last 3 years with "good enough" IQ, features, etc.
3) Too many models and brands with unfocused marketing and delivery
4) Poor networking of current gen cameras in a rapidly emerging mobile OS/cloud world

To break the cycles of 1-3 overhauling to take advantage of #4 is a way to reinvigorate consumer demand.

[gazonk]

Any camera manufacturer assuming as a prerequisite that the camera purchaser will also have a "digital darkroom" desktop/laptop PC is in trouble.

Indeed, but I think it's just a matter of time before you can do pretty advanced processing on tablets. Adobe is already preparing:
Adobe Prepping Lightroom iOS App With RAW Photo Editing | News & Opinion | PCMag.com

Artists using photoshop and similar for drawing, are also increasingly looking at tablet options, they'd be much better off with all-in-one devices than heavy pc+cintiq combinations.

Currently, high mp count RAW files are quite demanding for the ARM processors (not to mention those wimpy Intel Atoms), but to me it looks like tablet speed is growing faster than the processing demands (through mp count) of cameras.

I always carry a bag with K-5, a few lenses and an iPad when I commute to work. Sometimes I use the iPad photo connection thingy, but I don't like fiddling around with adaptors, and besides, it's currently difficult to do RAW on the iPad. I'm quite confident, though, that before I buy my next camera to replace the K-5, I will also be able to connect it wirelessly to a much more powerful tablet computer than today's iPad.

[monochrome]

It's not really about innovation; it's about smaller, simpler, cheaper devices to perform the majority of digital experiences for average consumers. Digital photography falls into that category, yet none of the major camera manufacturers play nice with any of the mobile OS's. The average consumer DSLR or prosumer compact does not play nice with the average consumer's choice of platform or CPU.

Don't be so certain camerra makers aren't aware and aren't working behind the scenes.

From what I hear, Pentax Ricoh has worked extensively with Apple attempting to establish very close tieing to tablets. Step One was to tie using Eye-Fi cards, which they have done well coordinating with Eye-Fi engineers (see MX-1, GR and Q10 and Q7). Step Two will be to build Wi-Fi into the camera FW itself. Apple, however, declined to open their API tp RAW file sharing and processing - specifically RAW processing applications - because they are extremely jealous of tablet battery life. Apple believe power consumption to process RAW files on tablets is a large power drain, which would reflect poorly on APPLE!!!!

Aristophanes, it isn't just the camera manufacturers who are stubborn.

[Clavius]

Any camera manufacturer assuming as a prerequisite that the camera purchaser will also have a "digital darkroom" desktop/laptop PC is in trouble. That market is NOT where the new camera buyers are going to be because that is NOT where the new CPU purchasers are. Users who rely on desktop/high-power laptops to manage their digital media assets are increasingly looking to be the minority in the CPU market. Even Intel sees the problem:

Any user that doesn't see the advantages of that "digital darkroom" and prefers the use of their Ipad over the PC probably doesn't see the advantages of a high end DSLR either, and would prefer the use of the camera on their Iphone or Ipad. And they are probably correct too, because most images taken by those Ipads and Iphones will not be printed anyway. They are good enough for online use. Why would they require a seperate camera anyway?

[Aristophanes]

Don't be so certain camerra makers aren't aware and aren't working behind the scenes.

I'm sure they are now. But they already saw a huge drop in the P&S market to smartphones, mostly Apple and Samsung with HTC and Nokia bringing up the rear.

Nikon thinks it's an after-market sale rather than a core necessity.

None of them with the 2013 releases play nice with mobile OS's, yet the camera is mobile!

Eye-fi is a slow kludge. It's days are numbered.

Apple, however, declined to open their API tp RAW file sharing and processing - specifically RAW processing applications - because they are extremely jealous of tablet battery life. Apple believe power consumption to process RAW files on tablets is a large power drain, which would reflect poorly on APPLE!!!!

And Apple is right.

Forget RAW. Shoot RAW + JPEG and do the JPEG on the tablet. Save RAW for higher-end workflow. Big file sizes and RAW do not play nice with tablet batteries or storage. That's not really going to change for awhile.

That said both Apple and Adobe are apparently working on iOS Aperture and LR. How much RAW processing will be done is an issue. But the blunt reality is...most consumers of DSLR's probably shoot JPEG anyway. I shoot both and use JPEG very frequently for quick snapshot shares. That's a good thing. RAW can be a time hog. RAW + JPEG exists to make it easier, so let's capitalize on that.

The real block is a lack of Wi-Fi built into the camera, and no apps to manage the connection. At WWDC we saw remote control toy cars racing via iOS (totally cool), but my camera cannot talk to my iOS devices. And then we see sales data showing massive uptake in mobile OS and a slow growth dedicated camera market. Hmmmm......

[Aristophanes]

Any user that doesn't see the advantages of that "digital darkroom" and prefers the use of their Ipad over the PC probably doesn't see the advantages of a high end DSLR either, and would prefer the use of the camera on their Iphone or Ipad. And they are probably correct too, because most images taken by those Ipads and Iphones will not be printed anyway. They are good enough for online use. Why would they require a seperate camera anyway?

Nonsense. A good tablet provides exceptional viewing in standard print sizes, too! Furthermore, one of the key facilities of a tablet is the pinch-zoom, which is a crop function. APS-C thrives on that, as do all large sensor cameras.

Most cameras provide excellent direct output quality files with little to no tweaking for most photographic purposes. The demand is for DSLR quality at decent file sizes straight from camera (or light in-camera editing) to mobile OS for either more editing or direct sharing/viewing. No PC in that equation; none needed. DSLR quality all the way.

[Mistral75]

(...)

None of them with the 2013 releases play nice with mobile OS's, yet the camera is mobile!

(...)

Samsung does with the Galaxy NX, to be announced the day after tomorrow: https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/non-pentax-cameras-canon-nikon-etc/228041...ss-camera.html

[bluefoam]

Samsung does with the Galaxy NX, to be announced the day after tomorrow:

I detest the idea of touch screen on cameras. I had one on a Sony compact and it was useless. I like the idea of pairing the camera and the phone/tablet or having more visual/advanced menus. but having android on a mid-end camera isn't going to give you better pictures or better control.

As I've said about the Nikon 1 series... they have hidden all the control in software menus and the cameras end up more like iPods, taking the creativity away from the user. That's why i own a Q...

[Aristophanes]

Samsung does with the Galaxy NX, to be announced the day after tomorrow

A full Android phone in the camera is maybe going too far, but at least Samsung gets it.

The one thing a touch screen on a camera is excellent for is separating focus point from exposure point.

If a camera had an iOS app that tethered and let you have control separately for tripod shots...wow!!

[Clavius]

Nonsense. A good tablet provides exceptional viewing in standard print sizes, too! Furthermore, one of the key facilities of a tablet is the pinch-zoom, which is a crop function. APS-C thrives on that, as do all large sensor cameras.

Most cameras provide excellent direct output quality files with little to no tweaking for most photographic purposes. The demand is for DSLR quality at decent file sizes straight from camera (or light in-camera editing) to mobile OS for either more editing or direct sharing/viewing. No PC in that equation; none needed. DSLR quality all the way.

You don't have to tell me, or any other photography enthusiast, what the advantages of a DSLR are. We all know those things. But the crowd that buys a tablet instead of a laptop because it "powers up so quickly", because they "can't imagine anything that a laptop can and a tablet can't" and they can leave it in/on the living room table. They chose that device for convenience. Why would they then - all of a sudden - not chose convenience, ignore the built in camera, and go through all the hassle of shooting with an external camera?

[monochrome]

Forget RAW. Shoot RAW + JPEG and do the JPEG on the tablet. Save RAW for higher-end workflow. Big file sizes and RAW do not play nice with tablet batteries or storage. That's not really going to change for awhile.

Uhmmm - you are starting to go in a circle here. I thought you were just saying people don't use high powered workstations any more.

I shoot RAW+ and my Q's and K-01 are set up with Eye-Fi cards. JPEG's transfer wirelessly. RAW files move by the analog method.

Did you read my post or are you just arguing to be argumentative? I described Eye-Fi as Pentax Step One - the quick and dirty solution, and that they worked extensively with Eye-Fi engineers to make the set-up of links easier than with any other brand. I described Pentax Step Two - the elegant and permanent solution, and that they are working with Apple but have been rebuffed so far, even though Adobe is also working with Apple.

Do ya think Pentax might be working on tethering? How about instant external image display? Do ya think this might be an area in which Pentax could be different??? After all, a dSLR is a dSLR. They all do the same thing with only minor cosmetic or technical distinctions to separate one brand form another.

Do ya think Pentax might be setting itself up to be the brand of choice for the Millenials, Gen Y and Gen X users you are so sure Japan is ignoring? Afer all, Pentax has stated they can be the #3 maker in the intermediate term and #1 in 20 years. Why don't we just beleive them for once and give them credit for at least having a credible plan?