Originally posted by Aristophanes Thom Hogan gets it right in this article about the lack of value both real and perceived in mirrorless
Hogan gets a lot of things right, but I think he overstates the role of marketing. The main problems with mirrorless is that companies like Olympus and Sony are poorly run; they produce way too many cameras (which forces them to sell below cost); and way too many MILCs lack viewfinders (which means they pose no real threat to DSLRs).
Originally posted by Aristophanes Sony, perhaps more grounded in the North American market, sort of gets it more that larger sensor is the only way to compete against cameraphones
The threat of smartphones to compacts, although real, tends to be exaggerated. The compact market is shrinking, not merely because competition from camera phones, but because most people who want a compact phone already own one and, since the technology has matured, we're not likely to see compelling upgrades any time soon. But even though the market is shrinking, it's not going to disappear. There are still millions of compacts sold every year. The problem is too many cameras are being produced by too many companies; the supply and the competition is driving prices below cost.
There's still a market for compacts, it's just smaller than it was before. But there are still plenty of people who don't have camera phones (or who don't know how to use the camera in their phone). And there are still plenty of ways to differentiate between camera and phone camera other than larger sensor (e.g., waterproofing, better lens, more zoom range, easier for non-tech people to use, etc.).
Originally posted by Aristophanes Olympus cannot overcome the smallish m43 and they have probably the worst price to AF rail (made that up).
Fuji is much worse when it comes to AF to price ratio. The EM-5 really isn't that bad (no worse in speed than the K-5, yet focuses more accurately). Nor is the smallish m43 sensor a problem. The issue with m43 was that, until the EM-5, all the 4/3rd sensors under performed. Now that they use the same technology used in Nikon, Pentax, and Sony APS-C cameras, they perform nearly as well as sensors used in APS-C DSLRs and the Sony NEX cameras. The 4/3rd sensor is only about 2 and half milimeters smaller, in vertical height, than APS-C sensors; yet the 4:3 aspect ratio allows for smaller lenses; and isn't small size the whole point of compact MILC?