Originally posted by JPT I wonder where and when that information about price comes from. FF sensors must be being produced in large quantities now, so that is bound to lower the cost.
I know there are many ancillary business costs, but these are presumably built into the cost of products already on the market.
Nikon D600 ($2,000) - Take away the cost of the mirror, prism and associated paraphernalia. Add cost of EVF.
Sony RX-1 ($2,500) - Take away the Zeiss lens, add the EVF and bear in mind that the RX-1 has no direct competition, so Sony has been able to price it as they wish.
Pentax K-5 II ($800) - Even if you add the somewhat dubious $700 to this, it is still under budget.
I think a sub-$1,500 FF mirrorless camera is entirely possible.
Note - my prices are crude currency conversions from the Japanese in-store prices, using 100 yen to the dollar. I haven't checked to actual dollar retail prices. Prices for D600 and K-5 II are body only.
Most costs are extrapolated, but all sensors are essentially made the same way. The photolithography process requires 2.45 more cost per chip for FF than APS-C due to the original wafer size. You cut 2.45 more APS-C chips off the same wafer as FF; it's just a function of geometry. Therefore the yield is lower for the FF and the rate of defects affects a much larger % of the volume.
It's been estimated that an end-of-life APS-C sensor is about $40-$70 while a new model comes in around $110...the early adopter price. So add at least 2.45x for FF, then more for lower yield due to defects and the raw cost of an FF sensor starts at about 4-5x an APS-C. That's what you build your camera around.
All the supporting electronics like buffers and data paths play a role as well, maybe 20% more compared to APS-C. More data requires more circuits and that also has an impact on the physical size of the unit, not to mention battery power. Now add video which is a must have to reach the broadest possible market.
So just to get the sensor on a circuit board out the door FF sensors are 4x to 6x APS-C.
And those costs work the other way. APS-C is prohibitively expensive for a sub-$100 digicam on sale at the local drugstore.
Volume will cause costs to come down, but you still cannot get away from the 4-6x greater cost when the oven door opens. It's baked in to the fundamentals of the technology.
That means the market bifurcates on sensor size/cost. FF will secularly be well above $1,000 while APS-C can come in well below. Models in the sub-$1,000 category make up well over 80% of all dedicated camera sales. A camera is a household necessity to many but there are disposable income limits. So even if they could make a $1,500 mirrorless, the reality is it's not a large market to spread the cost around. Add in the cost of a new mount and complete lens line-up overhaul (like Fuji....whose camera division is also bleeding red ink), and you have caution signs everywhere.
I said bifurcate but in reality it's got more divisions than that. We have m43 and CX/1" making inroads. the chase in the market is on at the lower end for volume sales. Mirrorless FF at $1,500 a unit will have 1% of the consumers that a $400 mirrorless will draw. Which one makes the hands-on assembly line more efficient? Add in the demand for lenses for the $1,500 "system camera" and you have to spread out even more cost across more products than the $400 unit where the average consumer will maybe buy a kit +1 other lens. They won't demand a huge variety of lenses so you as a company don't have to go there.
I think the real trick for Pentax is getting their flagship APS-C bodies below $1,000, creating market space for the eventual FF DSLR. I also think Pentax needs to work their K-mount into a very small form factor, low-end unit, smaller even than the K-x and Canon 100D. And that body with a kit lens will have to come in MSRP at US$499.
Personally I think Pentax should be looking at splitting their DSLR bodies into a big zoom, big feature line, K-50/K-5/K-3. What we have now.
I also think they should take the mini-form factor of the smallest possible APS-C DSLR and pair that with a combo of cheaper primes (50/1.8 and 35/2.4) and the DA Ltd's. This is a system camera to challenge Fuji and Canikon and even NEX. The prism and mirrorbox are not that prohibitive to design compactness; it's all the other features that expand the volume.