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08-20-2013, 11:35 PM   #151
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QuoteOriginally posted by rod_grant Quote
I haven't read all the posts (got to about page 6), but since Poit has admitted his domicile in Australia, the rest of the world can look forward to the new camera(s) earlier than Christmas! Australia is always late to get new releases.
Hah, you may be surprised.

13th – 15th of September, the largest photo show in the southern hemisphere is organised in Melbourne. Latest cameras and photographic tidbits in Pentax and Ricoh brands will be presented as well. Judging by their enthusiasm, CR Kennedy guys are readying a big splash.
http://www.thedigitalshow.com.au/exhibitor-brands/

I expect to lay down hands on the mythical new K-3, and maybe even new 645D — well before many of Pentax users elsewhere have a chance (apart form those who visit IFA show in Berlin, starting September 5th). Anyway, if anything's presented at IFA, I presume will be available for a preview in Melbourne as well.

I'll keep you posted.


Last edited by Uluru; 08-20-2013 at 11:42 PM.
08-21-2013, 12:32 AM   #152
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QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
Hah, you may be surprised.

13th – 15th of September, the largest photo show in the southern hemisphere is organised in Melbourne. Latest cameras and photographic tidbits in Pentax and Ricoh brands will be presented as well. Judging by their enthusiasm, CR Kennedy guys are readying a big splash.
Exhibitor Brands | The Digital Show

I expect to lay down hands on the mythical new K-3, and maybe even new 645D — well before many of Pentax users elsewhere have a chance (apart form those who visit IFA show in Berlin, starting September 5th). Anyway, if anything's presented at IFA, I presume will be available for a preview in Melbourne as well.

I'll keep you posted.
I'm always slightly amused by the "largest in Southern Hemisphere" accolade.

Out of interest, where did you ascertain CR Kennedy's level of enthusiasm? No mention on their site that I can see.

Anyway, if there are going to be significant additions to the Pentax stable this year, it's reasonable to expect them to be at the upcoming shows. 5 September (or thereabouts) seems to be the date to keep one's eyes on Pentax-land! Two weeks away
08-21-2013, 05:11 AM   #153
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QuoteOriginally posted by Poit Quote
I'm always slightly amused by the "largest in Southern Hemisphere" accolade.

Out of interest, where did you ascertain CR Kennedy's level of enthusiasm? No mention on their site that I can see.

Anyway, if there are going to be significant additions to the Pentax stable this year, it's reasonable to expect them to be at the upcoming shows. 5 September (or thereabouts) seems to be the date to keep one's eyes on Pentax-land! Two weeks away
I don't expect too much, though. I do hope something may be delivered in September, and hopefully Pentax Australia people are willing to do their best to persuade their main suppliers to step forward, and be represented on the largest show in the southern hemisphere. But remembering how they've treaded Pentax Australia re Ricoh GR launch, and how Ricoh is conspicuously Nippon-centric and the whole of business is southern-hemsphere challenged, doesn't make me too ecstatic. Would Ricoh Imaging ever consider a southern-hemisphere launch for their product, considering there is no Photokina this year? Yeah, right ...
In short: if something is announced before the Melbourne photography show, yes, I suspect we may see something here. But if it's not launched elsewhere, we here will see nothing at all.
08-21-2013, 05:12 AM   #154
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QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
I have an opinion that Nikon in particular — and not the industry or technology — has plateaued their ideas, and are running out of imagination.
I'll say this much for Nikon -- they've stitched up deals with at least three different sensor manufacturers, to my knowledge: Sony, Toshiba and Aptina. If they can maintain these relationships (perhaps with some degree of exclusivity), this places them in a very strong position for future innovation.

Naturally, I hope that Ricoh/Pentax are able to cut similar deals, and not be locked out of any promising technologies.

08-21-2013, 05:30 AM - 1 Like   #155
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QuoteOriginally posted by asw66 Quote
I'll say this much for Nikon -- they've stitched up deals with at least three different sensor manufacturers, to my knowledge: Sony, Toshiba and Aptina. If they can maintain these relationships (perhaps with some degree of exclusivity), this places them in a very strong position for future innovation.
Naturally, I hope that Ricoh/Pentax are able to cut similar deals, and not be locked out of any promising technologies.
Nikon is Nikon. They don't leave things to chance. They may underestimate the market for a while, their appetite may be bigger than demand, but one can rely they'll be always ready to provide robust, conservatively designed, relatively unimaginative but mainstream-looking camera.
As such, they have more buying power, and can negotiate more, get better deals. Let's not be surprised if Pentax is not making any FF announcement yet because what they can get from a sensor manufacturer, is not same as what Nikon can get. Pentax probably must wait, and wait, and perhaps will wait untill Sony ramps up their FF mirrorless line, and Fuji joins in, and God-knows-who-not — even Casio — just to be able to make a camera they believe their customers are willing to buy.
I would not be surprised if Nikon sells more FF cameras alone, right now, than Pentax sells all its APS-C DSLRs together. When just about everybody delivers an FF camera of some kind, Pentax will eventually come. Will they be last ones? Most likely.
I simply don't believe Ricoh will do anything to raise Pentax's sensor credit rating. They will just milk it slowly, and steadily, and allow it to graze — just enough to stay on its legs.

Last edited by Uluru; 08-21-2013 at 05:37 AM.
08-21-2013, 05:49 AM   #156
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QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
I would not be surprised if Nikon sells more FF cameras alone, right now, than Pentax sells all its APS-C DSLRs together. When just about everybody delivers an FF camera of some kind, Pentax will eventually come. Will they be last ones? Most likely.
.
Actually, Pentax sells as many APS cameras as the whole FF market combined. We are talking about approximately 5% marketshare. The FF market is tiny. Thats why there's no Pentax FF yet....

I've heard that the almost immediate price drop of the D600 was due to dissapointing sales. It is also noteworthy that Nikon's answer to dropping sales are more frequent APS camera releases.
08-21-2013, 06:11 AM   #157
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
Actually, Pentax sells as many APS cameras as the whole FF market combined.
You spout this like it's gospel, where is the data?
08-21-2013, 09:46 AM   #158
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QuoteOriginally posted by cali92rs Quote
You spout this like it's gospel, where is the data?
2012???????????????????????????????

Well according to this in Japan, the only FF in the top 10 was the Eos 6D. The K-30 and K-5 outsold the 5D MkIII, Nikon D800 and D600 respectively. Interesting how in 2012, the K-r sold more than the D600... I know that's due to time frame as well since the K-r had the entire year while the D600 was released on September 18, 2012.

Accounting for profitability of the 5DMkIII, D800 and the K-5, which one's better you think? My bet is on the K-5.


Last edited by theperception2008; 08-21-2013 at 09:49 AM. Reason: spelllllling...
08-21-2013, 10:09 AM   #159
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QuoteOriginally posted by theperception2008 Quote
2012???????????????????????????????

Well according to this in Japan, the only FF in the top 10 was the Eos 6D. The K-30 and K-5 outsold the 5D MkIII, Nikon D800 and D600 respectively. Interesting how in 2012, the K-r sold more than the D600... I know that's due to time frame as well since the K-r had the entire year while the D600 was released on September 18, 2012.

Accounting for profitability of the 5DMkIII, D800 and the K-5, which one's better you think? My bet is on the K-5.
Lower prices = higher volume.

ILC cameras are a hobby market driven by disposable income.

I think profitability is higher for the FF cameras/unit, but that comes at an inventory and assembly overhead because of all the added lenses and accessories those camera systems require. For Canikon to maintain a stable of 50+ FF lenses is a feat of management and long-term cost exposure.

We have to have to stop thinking about it in terms of FF vs. APS-C vs m43 vs 1".

It's all about price points irrespective of sensor size. By far most consumers have a budget with limited upsell. Because a "good camera" is seen by many people as a "household necessity" there is a constant market drive, but every stop up the price point ladder eliminates huge swathes of the volume. BY the time you get to camera bodies at the $2,000 price point (D600/6D) you've eliminated 98% of the potential market.

But a $700 K-50 kit is purchasable by 70% of the market. And the K-500 kit at $150 less get you to 90%.

The upsell occurs when, for the same $, you can get a bigger sensor.

I'm hypothesizing the #'s but I'm probably not that far off. This is a standard price ladder phenomenon every retail sector bases their business models on.

Also, you'll see bursts of activity for certain segments due to product cycling, but if you average sales out over the FF 5-year turnover you'll see a far lower rate of FF sales compared to APS-C. Not to mention the FF used market is robust with those shutters rated for 100k and pro support and servicing extending lifespans not available on lower end models.
08-21-2013, 11:29 AM   #160
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Interesting approach, but not that of an encouragement for fantasmatic K-FF
08-21-2013, 11:44 AM   #161
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QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
I expect to lay down hands on the mythical new K-3, and maybe even new 645D — well before many of Pentax users elsewhere have a chance (apart form those who visit IFA show in Berlin, starting September 5th).
QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
I don't expect too much, though.


Sorry. But I have to ask -- what would be "too much"?
08-21-2013, 02:01 PM   #162
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QuoteOriginally posted by Quicksand Quote


Sorry. But I have to ask -- what would be "too much"?
Too much would be, say, a real new camera — announced at IFA — and available at Melbourne show. But before you touch it, you must knock out Blunty who is holding it and doesn't want to share.
Much would be a real camera, but behind security glass enclosure, and Blunty trying to open the enclosure with plasma torch and sledgehammer.
Normal would be a response "Yeah mate, it's been launched, no preview models in Australia yet, but are expecting it to come before next Christmas".

Last edited by Uluru; 08-21-2013 at 02:16 PM.
08-21-2013, 04:56 PM   #163
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QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
Too much would be, say, a real new camera — announced at IFA — and available at Melbourne show. But before you touch it, you must knock out Blunty who is holding it and doesn't want to share.
Much would be a real camera, but behind security glass enclosure, and Blunty trying to open the enclosure with plasma torch and sledgehammer.
Normal would be a response "Yeah mate, it's been launched, no preview models in Australia yet, but are expecting it to come before next Christmas".
I'm expecting camera under glass with local sales in a month or so. Ricoh seems to prefer the "absolute secrecy then the big reveal" approach rather than the drip-feed of leaks that was the Hoya way. For that to work you need to press the advantage while the big reveal is still fresh. A week after announcement is the perfect time to be showing a new body. Camera geeks will always want to look at the latest and greatest (OK, probably not the greatest) just in case the grass really is greener. That is the time to get them enthused. FWIW I heard the "new camera before christmas" rumour locally a couple of months ago from a source with contacts in Pentax Japan.
08-21-2013, 05:05 PM   #164
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QuoteOriginally posted by Paul Ewins Quote
FWIW I heard the "new camera before christmas" rumour locally a couple of months ago from a source with contacts in Pentax Japan.
I was listening to it since 2003 .. especially with "FF" letters in between "new" and "camera"
08-21-2013, 05:55 PM   #165
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QuoteOriginally posted by theperception2008 Quote
Well according to this in Japan, the only FF in the top 10 was the Eos 6D. The K-30 and K-5 outsold the 5D MkIII, Nikon D800 and D600 respectively. Interesting how in 2012, the K-r sold more than the D600... I know that's due to time frame as well since the K-r had the entire year while the D600 was released on September 18, 2012.
Accounting for profitability of the 5DMkIII, D800 and the K-5, which one's better you think? My bet is on the K-5.
The reason I provoked above more FF cameras were sold than Pentax APS-C DSLRs is because we lack any meaningful data, from the beginning of 2013 until today. And that is, my fair ladies and sirs, 9 long months. 2012 results don't cut it, same as yesteryear's snow. And that is precisely the time when price cuts on entry level DSLRs were introduced, and the tide has turned.

Last edited by Uluru; 08-21-2013 at 06:02 PM.
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