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09-14-2013, 11:15 AM   #511
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
While it is possible Sony just shelled out $600 million without doing its due diligence on health and value of Olympus, I highly doubt that to be the case.
Olympus had been falsifying its financial reports for twenty years. No one knows, and in the obtuse corporate culture of Japan it is unlikely anyone ever will know the true financial condition of Olympus. Panasonic took a look at the "books" and declined to participate in the restructuring. Sony reluctantly made an equity "investment" in Olympus without which it would truly have been broken up, then promptly set up a joint venture with Olympus, into which was transferred (Olympus Medical) the medical components products (which quite coincidentally have approximately the value of Sony's investment).

It isn't really a good argument to compare Pentax's Digicam operation to Olympus' entire optical equipment, B2B, medical imaging and Digicam operation and then say Olympus is healthier than Pentax. Using your comparison, Hoya was healthier than Olympus.

Ricoh sees Pentax as a growth opportunity. When you already are the largest company in your mature sector - the 279th largest company on earth, your growth opportunities in that sector are limited. B2C is where Ricoh can gain growth. I wouldn't put it past Ricoh to buy Olympus' ailing, moribund digital camera operation (patents and manufacturing facilities - the brand has no value) from Sony in much the same way they bought.Pentax from Hoya. That has been the Ricoh way in B2B.

09-14-2013, 11:17 AM   #512
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I took the $150 million from your post, then edited to 125 - but whatever. Your quote is from DPReview, way too far away from the source; and I don't trust a single source (Nikkei) anyway. If the exact number is known, why only Nikkei knows about it?
Give me a break..... DPR got it from UPDATE 2-Japan's Hoya: to sell Pentax camera business to Ricoh | Reuters

Does anyone but the Nikkei have reason to care what happened to a company with less than 2% market share? The only reason they cared is because Ricoh is huge Japanese company. Ricoh decided to take some money that was left over from last years Christmas party and buy Pentax.
09-14-2013, 11:20 AM   #513
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
It's the lumbering ones who can't change quickly which are at risk, I think. Digital photography is still in relatively early days. There are a lot of changes and surprises still to come.
So who is lumbering - Canon and Nikon who can't stop producing and experience involuntary inventory build of tiny Pentax, that has chosen to hold down production in the face of a slowing global economy while making incremental, disciplined changes ?
09-14-2013, 11:24 AM   #514
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Give me a break..... DPR got it from UPDATE 2-Japan's Hoya: to sell Pentax camera business to Ricoh | Reuters

Does anyone but the Nikkei have reason to care what happened to a company with less than 2% market share? The only reason they cared is because Ricoh is huge Japanese company. Ricoh decided to take some money that was left over from last years Christmas party and buy Pentax.
It is well understood in the financial community that the $125MM is table stakes - the ante - and the real money comes later. The capital and cash flow infusion actually starts right about now and increases consistently beginning Ricoh FYE 04/2015 (starts March 2014).


Last edited by monochrome; 09-14-2013 at 12:58 PM.
09-14-2013, 11:26 AM   #515
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Winder : That's not even Nikkei's original statement. And if they couldn't care less about Pentax - does that raise your confidence in that number? Sorry, I can't simply accept that $124.2 million is it - the exact number, and that there's nothing else besides it. I don't like not being able to double check such unofficial figures, not being able to see the original statement. I'm not rejecting the number, either, of course - how could I? I'm only advising for caution; and that you can't just compare two numbers, regardless of what they mean.

Anyway, once again monochrome is spot on: whatever that number actually is, Pentax/Ricoh Imaging is not limited by it.

Last edited by Kunzite; 09-14-2013 at 11:37 AM.
09-14-2013, 11:26 AM   #516
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
So who is lumbering - Canon and Nikon who can't stop producing and experience involuntary inventory build of tiny Pentax, that has chosen to hold down production in the face of a slowing global economy while making incremental, disciplined changes ?
"Pentax, that has chosen to hold down production in the face of a slowing global economy while making incremental, disciplined changes ?" So say you. But have Ricoh laid that out publicly as their strategy or is it a case of "not much is happening so let's make up a storyline that what's really happening is ..."? Besides, I can't see Ricoh objecting to having, say, Canon's market share. I think you're right that Nikon may have been caught out but Canon strike me as a lot cannier.
09-14-2013, 11:39 AM   #517
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
But have Ricoh laid that out publicly as their strategy or is it a case of "not much is happening so let's make up a storyline that what's really happening is ..."?
I actually have that statement, personally, directly from Pentax executives April 30th - and both Nikon and Canon are still producing more cameras then they're shipping. Expect liquidation pricing Black Friday if holiday sales aren't spectacular (at least in the US summer retailer advance orders weren't anything to be excited about).

From the last paragraph (Note I intentionally did not state Canaon and Nikon were the companies mentioned as overproducing). Click the red >> to go to the OP.
QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Lastly he counseled a bit of patience. He cited CIPA data that show other manufacturers are producing significantly more cameras than they are selling, and thus experiencing an involuntary inventory build. Pentax is not subjecting itself to this risk. As a company Ricoh is twice the size of Nikon and half the size of Canon, so these business decisions are strategic, all made under an intermediate term belief that there can be a third major camera brand and it will be Pentax, and that the 20 year Vision remains to be Number 1. Within that strategy there are shorter tactical actions that don’t appear to make sense without the intermediate and long term context. He asked again that we be patient.
09-14-2013, 11:48 AM   #518
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I actually have that statement, personally, directly from Pentax executives April 30th - and both Nikon and Canon are still producing more cameras then they're shipping. Expect liquidation pricing Black Friday if holiday sales aren't spectacular (at least in the US summer retailer advance orders weren't anything to be excited about).

From the last paragraph (Note I intentionally did not state Canaon and Nikon were the companies mentioned as overproducing). Click the red >> to go to the OP.
Well fair enough, sounds a well thought through arrangement. However, there is a catch. Canon, Nikon and others may well end up with liquidation pricing later this year but such a tactic might shaft the plans of full-price manufacturers right royally. Why buy full price when you can catch a bargain from the next guy? The liquidators may lose money but the full-price guys who are doing everything by the book end up losing too. They lose sales. Pretty soon, if the liquidators get into the habit of it, no one expects to pay remotely full price for anything any longer and the prudent fuller-price guys are dragged down another peg. Yes, it's a race to the bottom. Deep pockets required.

09-14-2013, 11:56 AM   #519
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Well fair enough, sounds a well thought through arrangement. However, there is a catch. Canon, Nikon and others may well end up with liquidation pricing later this year but such a tactic might shaft the plans of full-price manufacturers right royally. Why buy full price when you can catch a bargain from the next guy? The liquidators may lose money but the full-price guys who are doing everything by the book end up losing too. They lose sales. Pretty soon, if the liquidators get into the habit of it, no one expects to pay remotely full price for anything any longer and the prudent fuller-price guys are dragged down another peg. Yes, it's a race to the bottom. Deep pockets required.
Perhaps. Time will tell! Who is to say they don't plan Black Friday (week) specials - they had them last year. That's an open strategy with MAP pricing.

If they have to meet prices, though, they'll do it without the additional cost of inventory carry and without having sunk all those payrolls into assembly workers.

"Ricoh is twice the size of Nikon and half the size of Canon . . ."

I really just want the discussion to see both sides - I don't have any axe to grind. I do believe Ricoh is serious about making Pentax succeed and they're not the sterotypical, benighted dark suited Japanese businessmen. The best case I can make for that now is the "5 Reasons to Choose Pentax" and "4 Lenses" pages on the .jp website. They're quite honest about what they have and, by omission, what they don't have (everything necessary for Sports/Action, which are Canon/Nikon strengths). By implication that should tell us they know what they need to work on and why they say they want to be an alternative to CaniKon, not another CaNikon.
09-14-2013, 12:27 PM   #520
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I just want to remind everyone that the "pentax is doomed" talk is as old as the brand itself I've heard the same story repeated over the years and despite that, Pentax is still making things today. If you enjoy those sort of thing you should go read RH's blog. It's actually quite entertaining

Of course this is not saying that Pentax will never fold, or that there is no way for the brand to improve (if they want to be #3 they have to work at it)

QuoteQuote:
By implication that should tell us they know what they need to work on and why they say they want to be an alternative to CaniKon, not another CaNikon.
I agree, the current pentax offering is different from any other APSC brand, and in a very good way.

Pentax have never really tried to sell us on old lenses, perhaps because they want us to buy new glass, but maybe that's one thing that they can try to sell? They're one of the only two brands with shake reduction for old glass after all.
09-14-2013, 01:12 PM   #521
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QuoteOriginally posted by Andi Lo Quote
I just want to remind everyone that the "pentax is doomed" talk is as old as the brand itself I've heard the same story repeated over the years and despite that, Pentax is still making things today.
Especially in the late 90's - early 2000's, the plastic FA's! OTOH, I finally got an MZ-S - same period as the plastic FA's - and I think that fabulous camera will actually work for me!
QuoteOriginally posted by Andi Lo Quote
Pentax have never really tried to sell us on old lenses, perhaps because they want us to buy new glass, but maybe that's one thing that they can try to sell? They're one of the only two brands with shake reduction for old glass after all.
I've had a real problem with deteriorating vision the last few years and APSc viewfinders aren't working well. I've tried all kinds of legacy film cameras just to keep my hand in but focusing and the border information has still been a chore. Manually focusing legacy lenses works well on the K-01 and converted Q though.

And in a really strange twist, I'm back-converting the F's and FA's I bought new with my K10D and used on eBay to the "modern" film camera
09-14-2013, 03:56 PM   #522
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QuoteOriginally posted by Andi Lo Quote
I just want to remind everyone that the "pentax is doomed" talk is as old as the brand itself I've heard the same story repeated over the years and despite that, Pentax is still making things today...
If any other company did what Pentax did throughout history, they'd go out of business. But, as with the help of some magic, that name still sticks around. Because of its users and their high hopes. The most valuable asset of the Pentax brand aren't patents, but its users.

However, I'd love, absolutely love that old Pentax dies, now and forever. Old Pentax ways, I mean.

Let's observe it: if I were Ricoh, and my good reputation, long terms plans I have and excitement I see in making things others haven't dreamt about are the stakes, then what is presented as the next Pentax product cannot be a flop.It mustn't be a flop. Not a semi-finished product that catches up in 2 years, or three.

It must be so good the day it's announced it will sell itself without any sales effort. If it's an FF, the first day after the announcement will mark the 1,000,000 preorders worldwide, and will be the top ranking camera in sales in a decade — that kind of product I'd be interesting in making.

As I was grumpy too, up until the announcement of the new Fujitsu's image processor, I have then realised why the K5IIs move was necessary. And why the whole year was 'wasted', but in expectations of a chip that will ensure a quantum leap in performance. Ricoh obviously wasn't interested wasting time in a small incremental step which Nikon did with their D7100, and further locked it in the market for 2 years. Only now I can see that, because that piece of the puzzle was hidden.

Ricoh now has a chance to come up with a range of all new, fresh products and not be burdened with tons of old tech they must fire-sale like all other players will. They'll be ready for the imaging challenge of the next few years. Optimistically, but still cautiously, I see the 2014 a year of Ricoh .. of people who worked for Asahi, for Hoya, for Ricoh, new members, and all the brains employed to work on Pentax products .. that are better than anything we've seen coming under the name of Pentax ever before.

Last edited by Uluru; 09-14-2013 at 04:15 PM.
09-14-2013, 04:18 PM   #523
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QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
If any other company did what Pentax did throughout history, they'd go out of business. But, as with the help of some magic, that name still sticks around. Because of its users and their high hopes. The most valuable asset of the Pentax brand aren't patents, but its users.

However, I'd love, absolutely love that old Pentax dies, now and forever. Old Pentax ways, I mean.

Let's observe it: if I were Ricoh, and my good reputation, long terms plans I have and excitement I see in making things others haven't dreamt about are the stakes, then what is presented as the next Pentax product cannot be a flop.It mustn't be a flop. Not a semi-finished product that catches up in 2 years, or three.

It must be so good the day it's announced it will sell itself without any sales effort. If it's an FF, the first day after the announcement will mark the 1,000,000 preorders worldwide, and will be the top ranking camera in sales in a decade that kind of product I'd be interesting in making.

As I was grumpy too, up until the announcement of the new Fujitsu's image processor, I have then realised why the K5IIs move was necessary. And why the whole year was 'wasted', but in expectations of a chip that will ensure a quantum leap in performance. Ricoh obviously wasn't interested wasting time in a small incremental step which Nikon did with their D7100, and further locked it in the market for 2 years. Only now I can see that, because that piece of the puzzle was hidden.

Ricoh now has a chance to come up with a range of all new, fresh products and not be burdened with tons of old tech they must fire-sale like all other players will. They'll be ready for the imaging challenge of the next few years. Optimistically, but still cautiously, I see the 2014 a year of Ricoh .. of people who worked for Asahi, for Hoya, for Ricoh, new members, and all the brains employed to work on Pentax products .. that are better than anything we've seen coming under the name of Pentax ever before.
I really hope that you're right because it would be glorious!
09-14-2013, 05:47 PM   #524
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Any idea of when the next camera show is? Been waiting ages for a full frame or upgrade to the K-5 and about to get a Canon 6D for night photography if nothing happens soon....I still love the K-5 for landscapes but really need something with better high ISO performance for night photography...I think the highest ISO for acceptable noise in the K-5 is around 1600, the 6D at around 6400 and maybe even up to 12800?

And am I right in saying most cameras will be announced in September or October at the latest? I don't think they always need to announce them at shows right?
09-14-2013, 05:54 PM   #525
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QuoteOriginally posted by catastrophe Quote
Any idea of when the next camera show is? Been waiting ages for a full frame or upgrade to the K-5 and about to get a Canon 6D for night photography if nothing happens soon....I still love the K-5 for landscapes but really need something with better high ISO performance for night photography...I think the highest ISO for acceptable noise in the K-5 is around 1600, the 6D at around 6400 and maybe even up to 12800?

And am I right in saying most cameras will be announced in September or October at the latest? I don't think they always need to announce them at shows right?
I don't know about the camera shows, but I've used the K-5II at ISO 6400 and even higher when it's become necessary, and never really had a problem with the noise. (granted, there definitely is some, but I wouldn't call it "unacceptable")
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