Originally posted by philbaum I could be totally wrong, but my impression is that companies often give up on products (in this case a camera model) when such products no longer sell significantly in the marketplace. They don't give up products because of a coupla posts on the internet
That's entirely correct (of course, long-time strategy also matters, and the definition of "significantly" varies a lot).
However, I never said the companies are adjusting their strategies following internet posting.
Quote: But i don't think it will be 10 years before something happens to the DSLRs. Sony doesn't give out numbers but there were reports earlier in 2013 that their A-mount sales weren't satisfying so they've already announced that the SLT concept is no more. They also mentioned that the Nex models were making a profit. Then we read that they are shifting efforts to produce a FF Nex (mirrorless of course) as a priority over other camera projects. That announcement was several months ago. There have been repeated rumors recently that not just one, but 2 Nex FF Nex cameras will be issued in October 2013 and that a FF A-mount will be announced in 2014. So you have a company that is not happy with its DSLR-like sales, and has the capability and sensors to disrupt the status-quo in the market place. Sony has already manufactured the RX-1, a FF mirrorless camera with a fixed lens. Since they did that, they certainly can do the ILC camera.
We'll see; so far MILCs aren't gaining any terrain over DSLRs, and that's a
fact. I will remind you this was about the immediate future, not what could happen in 10 years.
Sony is not the best example, as they no longer makes DSLRs (the SLT is basically a MILC with a legacy mount). The 3 players on the DSLR market are Canon, Nikon, Pentax. That's all.
Quote: I just can't conceive that Canon and Nikon are going to sit idly by, and watch Sony have the only mirrorless ILC FF cameras without starting their own efforts towards a mirrorless ILC FF cameras (that ultimately will replace the DSLR). Sure, Sony doesn't have, i think, the lenses to compete full on with the Nikon and Canon lines, but third party lens mfrs could help with that. I don't know what Pentax has in the works, they are so good at keeping secrets :-)
The good thing about the rumored Sony FF MILC is that we'll see the market size, for such a product. IMHO is vastly overestimated by the MILC supporters.
I'll ignore the speculations that everyone must be working on similar products, just because Sony does (Sony, who has no other chance to make upper level cameras). Mr. Kitazawa of Pentax actually said: "it was our conclusion that APS-C should be the utmost size for mirrorless segment" - and IMHO that's better than mere speculation.
Quote: So, i don't think it will even be 5 years before we see something happening to the DSLR type cameras. Meanwhile, I'll continue to use my APS size Pentax and Sony cameras because i don't want to carry around larger lenses, but some day.... i might buy one if the price comes down to something i can consider :-)
From 10 years now it's down to less than 5; we'll see about that.