Originally posted by philbaum I just can't conceive that Canon and Nikon are going to sit idly by, and watch Sony have the only mirrorless ILC FF cameras without starting their own efforts towards a mirrorless ILC FF cameras (that ultimately will replace the DSLR). Sure, Sony doesn't have, i think, the lenses to compete full on with the Nikon and Canon lines, but third party lens mfrs could help with that.
Sony's mirrorless E-mount mirrorless ILF FF camera constitutes absolutely no threat to Canon's and Nikon's DSLRs, and here's why: the Sony system is a compact mirrorless camera, and there's only a very small number of FF lenses that make sense with such a camera. The mainstay lenses for the Canon and Nikon FF DSLRs are the constant aperture zooms. These lenses are way too large for a compact ILC system. Are we really going to see photographers running around shooting 70-200 f2.8 lenses on a NEX-like body? Not likely. For this reason, compact ILC mirrorless constitutes no short term threat to DSLRs.
What about a mirrorless ILCs large enough to balance with the bigger zoom lenses favored by most photographers? If mirrorless does turn out to be "the future," as the gearheads keep predicting, that is the sort of camera we'll likely see. However, if you're going to make a mirrorless camera large enough to balance SLR zoom lenses, there's no reason not to simply keep the SLR mount. After all, when have adapters ever been adapted by large numbers of consumers? So there's no compelling reason for Pentax to develop a new mount. If the market moves toward mirrorless, they can simply do what they've already done: make a mirrorless K-mount camera.
The current market for compact mirrorless is smaller (in terms of customers) and more crowded (in terms of producers) than the DSLR market. Compact mirrorless was oversold by the gearheads, and led to a huge number of what were essentially P&S cameras with large sensors which could only sell at firesale prices. Companies like Olympus and Panasonic are now shifting to the high-end market, which is much smaller and way too crowded, with too many camera models chasing too few customers. It would make no sense for Pentax to try to enter this market, particularly at the expense of their SLR customers, most of whom wish to have a camera that they can use, natively and comfortably, with the lenses they have invested in.