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09-02-2013, 10:03 PM   #121
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QuoteOriginally posted by IchabodCrane Quote
I'm not a big fan of EVFs but lag isn't really the pressing problem, IMHO. If it was, there would be constant complaints about every DSLR's live view mode lagging and I don't see those complaints anywhere. Not to mention all the other cameras out there that have nothing but LV for composing.
Because those aren't used for reasonably moving objects or action shots.
Video on the K5 is the same, it works very well but trying to chase a Formula1 car, you'll have to practice * a lot * to keep the car on the screen.

09-02-2013, 11:14 PM   #122
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QuoteOriginally posted by IchabodCrane Quote
The ratio is going to remain very skewed as long as the two biggest camera makers continue to not offer any large-sensor MILCs (that one Canon really doesn't count). If Canon and Nikon were only half as serious about that segment as Sony, the ratio would not be at all close to 5:1. Of course that begs the question why they haven't shown much interest yet.
I'm not so sure about that. You're assuming either that:
a. Canon and Nikon can do much better than Sony, with the current technology, or
b. people would buy Canon and Nikon instead of Sony because of the brand.
I'd rather say the MILC makers are doing their best product-wise, with a strong presence - marketing, being in stores, anything that's required. Sony, Samsung, Panasonic are recognized brands, they're marketing a lot and I doubt the average consumer knows much about photographic tradition (but might see that his TV works quite well ). And the MILCs are cheaper.

In any case, since we're talking about Ricoh/Pentax, do you think they would be able to do much better than Sony?
09-02-2013, 11:29 PM   #123
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
Surely the companies are adjusting the production levels to match market demand. Compared to the last year, the production was adjusted downwards, for example.

A complete story would take into account not only the potential market, but also the effort to go there, and the impact on other parts of the business (e.g. as opportunity costs). There is a long way before having the new products ready to be sold.
No sane company would ignore market data, resorting to guesswork and wishful thinking.

I was talking about 5:1 DSLR to MILC ratio, never mentioning people. Are you trying to dismiss factual data with a strawman?
It is people who buy cameras, not cameras who buy cameras. Therefore knowing about the preferences of people is important. If people were divided cleanly into those only buy dSLRs and those who only buy MILCs, the historical sales data might predict the ratio of these types of people. But people can only buy what is available, so the historical sales data inevitably arises from a combination of what camera makers have made available and people's preferences, including their preferences about who they want to buy from. If camera makers haven't yet made the MILCs that people want to buy, taking into account who they want to buy from, then the numbers don't identify what would happen if a camera maker changed the game.
09-02-2013, 11:49 PM   #124
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Come on; you're just trying to make things more complicated than they are
And the idea that others did it wrong but Pentax can somehow "change the game"... nice try. MILCs are very much available, in various shapes, sizes and prices; and there's no revolution coming.

09-03-2013, 12:00 AM   #125
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QuoteOriginally posted by IchabodCrane Quote
The ratio is going to remain very skewed as long as the two biggest camera makers continue to not offer any large-sensor MILCs (that one Canon really doesn't count). If Canon and Nikon were only half as serious about that segment as Sony, the ratio would not be at all close to 5:1. Of course that begs the question why they haven't shown much interest yet.
Why doesn't EOS-M count? It seems to be one of the better selling MILCs in Japan (where, btw, DSLRs are dominating the bcnrating again).
09-03-2013, 12:20 AM   #126
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QuoteOriginally posted by gazonk Quote
Why doesn't EOS-M count? It seems to be one of the better selling MILCs in Japan (where, btw, DSLRs are dominating the bcnrating again).
EOS-M sells ? That's news to me (NOT tongue in cheek, I'm serious).
09-03-2013, 02:22 AM   #127
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It had 2.1% market share in Japan, last year (being announced in July, so the value is lower).
09-03-2013, 03:15 AM   #128
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mm, more than I thought but still a failure IMO coming from Canon

09-03-2013, 05:44 AM   #129
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QuoteOriginally posted by thibs Quote
mm, more than I thought but still a failure IMO coming from Canon
Canon and Nikon are highly dependent on their DSLR business. For Nikon it is over 70% of their imaging revenues. They, like Pentax, are almost a pure DSLR company.

Canon had a much wider presence in P&S duking it out for the top 3 spots with Fuji and Sony. As that market evaporates to a puddle, and witht he print/scan business stagnant, they have an even greater revenue reliance on DSLR's.

So Nikon goes with a smaller sensor MILC in the 1"/CX series to complement their APS-C DX and 135 FX line. this way MILC doesn't intrude or cannibalize their DSLR sales. It's a viable strategy IMO but the price points are awful for these devices and the design...ugh! Fantastic AF, though.

Canon's EOS-M has extremely slow AF which is perhaps Canon's way of trying to differentiate between MILC and DSLR. Didn't work, but they are in the game now and have an adapter to mount EOS lenses. Apparently a major redesign is on the way.

Regardless, both Canon and Nikon are sticking by the OVF and SLR format. It will shrink but they are in for the long haul with options on the side.

For Pentax, the Q doesn't compete against any of the aforementioned due to the too small sensor. For MILC look to either a K-01 revamp or a GR-like MILC. Or maybe just more aggressive GR-like cameras, like a zoom version. Maybe an APS-C bridge camera with in-body SR and the equivalent of the Pentax 18-135 would be interesting, especially if all WR. While the ILC market has been on a tear at the expense of all-in-one models, I wonder if the tide will turn and normalize.

Take the Ricoh GR and put in a 24MP sensor. Add an optional external EVF and an articulating touch rear LCD. Screw-in 21mm option plus crop 35 and 50mm. That's a 32-75mm in 135 (all at about f/4 DOF equivalent). Right away that puts a lot of the current MILC models to shame and you don't have to worry about a dirty sensor.

There may be other ways to mirrorless without resorting to kludgy adapters and IL's. You could have 2 Ricoh GR models, one an ILC mount to get your wide and tele and macro, and the other a compact crop shooter. Forget about adapters to K-mount. That's what the K-01 is for.
09-03-2013, 06:27 AM   #130
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I see GoogleGlass as the next game-changer in the P&S market and Google+ destroying Facebook/Instagram. Facebook already feels a lot like MySpace from a user-experience perspective. Once people get over the creepiness (they will) how cool do you think it will be to BLINK a party-pic straight to Google+?

All that re-sharpens the photographic hardware demand - especially ILC cameras - back to the enthusiast at lower overall unit volume. If Ricoh is making a profit with Pentax/Ricoh brands not dependent on P&S and Super-Compact devices - and managing involuntary inventory builds as they are - does that give them a business-model advantage?
09-03-2013, 06:38 AM   #131
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QuoteOriginally posted by gazonk Quote
Why doesn't EOS-M count? It seems to be one of the better selling MILCs in Japan (where, btw, DSLRs are dominating the bcnrating again).
it doesn't count because it feels like and probably is such a half-hearted attempt to be in the market. There's a grand total of one stabilized lens in their new mount. Only two lenses overall (kit zoom and a pancake prime). No built-in flash. No EVF or EVF option. Focusing is said to be way behind Olympus.
09-03-2013, 06:45 AM   #132
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I see GoogleGlass as the next game-changer in the P&S market and Google+ destroying Facebook/Instagram. Facebook already feels a lot like MySpace from a user-experience perspective. Once people get over the creepiness (they will) how cool do you think it will be to BLINK a party-pic straight to Google+?
The guy who does that will the the loser of the party and not asked to future ones, IMO.

QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
All that re-sharpens the photographic hardware demand - especially ILC cameras - back to the enthusiast at lower overall unit volume. If Ricoh is making a profit with Pentax/Ricoh brands not dependent on P&S and Super-Compact devices - and managing involuntary inventory builds as they are - does that give them a business-model advantage?
Cameras are still seen as a disposable income appliance necessity. Cameraphone fatigue and concerns about optical quality ans sensor size will persist and so the dedicated camera market isn't going anywhere, but may tread water for awhile.

I am not sure the ILC trend is going to continue on as strong as before, certainly not at these prices for after-market optics. 1" to APS-C compacts both fixed lens (GR) and zoom (RX100) may gain some ground at the expense of ILC's IMO. A smaller volume player with a rep for high quality and ruggedness, like Ricoh, could do very well here without venturing out into the K-mount compatible MILC market. Ricoh/Pentax are going to need a non-K-mount, larger than Q mirrorless system. Whether or not it is ILC or not or both is up in the air. What we may need to understand is that it may not be economically or technically feasible to make it work with K-mount.
09-03-2013, 06:59 AM   #133
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Google+ destroying Facebook/Instagram.
Really? First they need a user interface.
09-03-2013, 06:59 AM   #134
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The guy who does that will the the loser of the party and not asked to future ones, IMO.
Maybe. But 5 years ago I thought phone cameras and social media were creepy. Glass will eventually be accepted.
09-03-2013, 07:08 AM   #135
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Maybe. But 5 years ago I thought phone cameras and social media were creepy. Glass will eventually be accepted.
Mmmm...partially. Privacy concerns, voyeurism, and image control are all emerging issues that create a stigma unto themselves. There are a host of social etiquette issues regarding surreptitious photography and video, not to mention that large segment of the population may not want to wear glasses. Safety is an issue as well.

I think it very premature to weigh in on this device's impact on the camera industry.
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