[Belnan]

Turning wheels is as well, but I don't see many hovercrafts on the road. It's the only solution for a direct optical path in the right frame between photographer and subject.

I agree that hovercrafts just are not practical, still some people want them because they are cool. I have a feeling that cars with wheels are going to be around for a long time.

[krebsy75]

My gut feeling is that APS-C is migrating to mirrorless. I hope I'm wrong since I'm heavily invested in Pentax.

It's nothing to lose sleep over... I just have concerns that my investment may be at risk in the long term. I'm hopeful, however. The K-mount is natively full frame. And Ricoh appears to mean business.

[Kunzite]

You don't have to use some gut feelings, when you have official shipment/production values

[krebsy75]

Kunzite: I'm referring to crop DSLRS. Is there sales data available that differentiates between crop and FF DSLRS?

[D1N0]

Full Frame will remain high end as long as full frame sensors are expensive to make. Since sony is now managing to make them relatively cheaply FF is coming nearer the top aps-c camera's. I don't think it will go much further down since cost is a major factor in the mid and low end part of the dslr market. As to why they are more expensive to make here a explanation by Canon 2 years ago.

According to Canon's sensor white paper, a FF sensor costs 20 times an APS-C sensor (1.1MB .pdf):
http://www.robgalbraith.com/public_files/Canon_Full-Frame_CMOS_White_Paper.pdf
This is due to several factors:
(1) Area of sensor, hence sensors manufactured per 8-inch wafer. This alone means only 1/10th the number of FF sensors can be made per wafer as APS-C sensors.
(2) For a given number of contaminant particles on a wafer, a larger % of FF sensors will fail. E.g, 10 widely space dust specs will damage 10 of the 200 APS-C sensors on a wafer -- 190 good sensors remain (95%, or a loss of only 5%). However those same 10 dust specs will damage 10 of the 20 FF sensors on a wafer, a loss of 50%.
(3) FF sensors require triple the number of photo-lithography steps, meaning they're slower and more costly to make.
According to Canon the total of these factors results in a 20x price difference.

It will not be 20 times the cost by now but maybe 5 times.

[Kunzite]

Kunzite: I'm referring to crop DSLRS. Is there sales data available that differentiates between crop and FF DSLRS?

There's this:

A migration of DSLRs towards FF would be noticeable, in the average value of DSLRs; there's no such effect.

The value is the differentiator, and a significant shift towards FF DSLRs would raise the average value. However, this average value decreased slightly in January-August, compared to the same period of 2012.
There's also the fact that the MILCs don't gain any terrain over DSLRs. It would, if APS-C DSLR users would migrate en masse to MILCs.

[krebsy75]

Gut feeling time: I don't see existing APS-C migrating en masse. I see new users choosing mirrorless over APS-C.

[Kunzite]

They're just noisier than us. Again, the hard facts indicates that the MILC market isn't gaining at all over DSLRs.

[krebsy75]

I feel Pentax is going to have a major challenge convincing new users to buy into their system versus mirrorless options.

[D1N0]

I feel Pentax is going to have a major challenge convincing new users to buy into their system versus mirrorless options.

It is still a natural thing to look at a dslr when buying a serious family camera. It is mirrorless that has to do the convincing and other than size and sound it doensn't have any advantages over dslr.

[Kunzite]

I feel Pentax is going to have a major challenge convincing new users to buy into their system versus mirrorless options.

Come on, for a while you're constantly talking about your "gut feeling" - fears, actually - while not caring about any arguments/facts. What do you want?

And if you're talking about challenges, what do you think it would be harder for Pentax:
- to gain ~10% of the DSLR market, or
- to gain over half of the MILC market (for the same volume)?

[krebsy75]

I think Pentax needs to differentiate themselves like hell and sell as many cameras as humanly possible!

It's a marketing thing. And Pentax hasn't done any of it. Hopefully Ricoh has a plan to change it. The K-50/18-135mm weather sealed combo is a terrific package for less than $1k. Get the word out, Ricoh!!!

[txsbluesguy]

You don't have to use some gut feelings, when you have official shipment/production values

In the long run they will drop the mirror, like in audio and video they dropped tape, in photo they dropped film. The cost of making and maintaining factories to make complicated precession mechanical assemblies is becoming prohibitive. It's far easier to source an LCD panel for an evf already to day but the market will not currently accept it. But in the future there will be a tipping point or event that will force the change. When that will be is any ones guess but I m willing to guess before the end of the decade it will be hard to find mass produced consumer cameras with actuated mirrors and physical shutters

[Kunzite]

I m willing to guess before the end of the decade it will be hard to find mass produced consumer cameras with actuated mirrors and physical shutters

That's exactly the MILC propaganda's job, to convince us DSLRs aren't a good "investment" and, regardless of what we want/need, that we should go MILC because that's the future.
By spreading FUD, they're trying the self fulfilling prophecy approach. I'm glad it doesn't work, but it's noisy as ****.

[Cynog Ap Brychan]

before the end of the decade it will be hard to find mass produced consumer cameras with actuated mirrors and physical shutters

It won't be hard to find them in my house - I have dozens in my collection!

But seriously, you have a good point, and only time will tell. I like the OVFs on my current cameras, but then, I've never tried a camera with a newer EVF, such as the OMD. As long as I have a good viewfinder, I'm not much bothered whether it's OVF or EVF. Whether EVFs are "there" yet, I'll leave to others. For the moment, I have a K-5, and I will be buying a K-3, and they have OVFs, so that's what I'll be using.

I might consider a mirror-less full-frame compact in the not-to-distant future, if they materialise, though, to supplement my DSLRs.