Originally posted by NickLarsson The funny thing is that, still a few months ago, every camera makers were expecting profits and/or growth in sales in a shrinking market.
Market is of same size, and maybe even bigger, but it shifts the preferences — at least temporarily.
Sales of DSLRs were unnaturally over-bloated anyway. Since first forays into digital, DSLRs were selling like crazy, and the trend continued well into the 2010s.
Compared with today's DSLRs sales even in a year such as this, SLR sales from best film years are insignificant in comparison.
So even if DSLRs sales go back to SLR levels from the years of film — which is hard to imagine, but lets presume it — there's still a lot for DSLRs makers to deliver into the market, and those products will always be viable. DSLR manufacturers
may not rely solely on DSLR sales to achieve all the same levels of total lucrative profits, but they need to reduce, rethink, innovate and shift preferences.
And we can say that it is exactly because DSLRs were selling so well that such saturation has occurred, and both Nikon and Canon are guilty of it — not mobile phone market.
The specific economic model of their DSLR production has cost Nikon and Canon lost sales — and it is not that DSLR as a concept itself is a lost cause. Through similar crisis automotive industry now goes as well — their
economic model of production has overstuffed the market. But cars are still viable products and indeed we do need them. But we don't need them in quantities as offered today because market is overstuffed with them.
The economic model of their specific way of production is a problem — not the product itself.
So I see no problem with Pentax DSLR sales at all because they are designed and produced differently. They may in fact grow in DSLR market share by making models derived in a wholly different manner than Nikon's and Canon's, by adding value Nikon or Canon cannot because their model of production and lineup design prevents it. What Nikon and Canon are afraid of, and moan about, is that they now must change the production model they have perfected to maximise profits and saturate the market in the same time. Therefore, they must definitely reduce the number of DSLR models.
Before that happens, and before they re-engineer the production, they must clear out inventories first.