Originally posted by mecrox I'm not sure it is irrelevant: the 645D vs FF vs APS-C vs M43 is like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The article is about the view which comes from stepping back from that. I suppose the argument is that the camera companies have simply pushed out what suits them, convinced that an ever-expanding digital market entitled them to set the terms. Going for the 645D rather than FF suited Pentax but it's an open question whether it suited their customers. At a guess, nearly all the customers for whom APS-C isn't enough haven't moved on to a 645D, they've sold up and left the brand for FF elsewhere. Now the remaining ones are being tempted by near-parity pricing on some off-brand FF cameras and quite a lot more are sure to have moved on by the time a Pentax FF appears, if ever it does. That's your high-spenders gone. Suddenly, the choice of the 645D starts to look like a very, very expensive choice for Pentax even though it suited them at the time. I'm sure the same could be said of other forays by other manufacturers, the Nikon 1 line for example. They thought they could make customers pay huge sums of money not to use a DSLR: what could possibly go wrong?
On the other hand, consumers have voted with their pocketbooks by showing that they want connectivity and convenience, and if the camera companies won't provide it then they ain't buying but will happily use their smartphones instead. I suspect the next thing that consumers are going to turn down flat is any more lens lock-in, a mainstay of the K-mount concept. The interest in the A7 series must come from "use any lens + adapter" as much as from the series' form factor and sensors. This might not translate into sales, of course, but once consumers have smelled this particular coffee there will be no turning back.
So you see if there is a substantial shake-out in the camera market, which many say is now happening, companies really need to start with a clean sheet of paper. Canon, Nikon, Pentax, Panasonic, Olympus et al have spend the past few years selling what suits them with a hefty does of lock-in and that approach has landed a whole lot of them in the soup. Someone wants lens A on camera B in format C (with connectivity a given) or they ain't buying. They don't want "You will take lens A on camera A in format A and buy a separate wifi dongle for nearly the cost of a mobile phone - or hit the highway". That's the challenge over the next few years.
The camera that everyone has in their pocket right now on their phone has replaced almost all the compact camera sales. It is no longer available to the camera manufacturers. A pretty big market that they served well is done and gone.
But as good as the phone cameras are, there is still a market for better image quality. It is a tough one, because the sales to people who wanted to take pictures is gone, now the sales are to those who want to take better pictures. Everything is now a niche market. I think the interviewee understands this very well; they will not get automatic sales anymore, they need to have something that satisfies those who want more than the basic camera.
I think this explains why mirrorless sales have not taken the market by storm. I have a mirrorless in my pocket already. If I'm going to spend more money I want something more than a thicker iphone. I want a viewfinder, a good one. EVF's are just now on high end bodies adequate. I may want something longer. The bridge cameras with long zooms are selling. I want something that takes better photos. Dslr's are selling, although they have to take better shots than my phone. I think the days of a terrible kit lens on a cheap dslr is over. From there everything gets niche; long lenses for wildlife, wide angle stuff, the luxury compacts, the waterproof ones. Video cameras are another segment.
The $12-1500 plus market has always been rarified. With the bottom end gone, everyone is pounding away at each other to gain some of this market.
I suspect that for Pentax, as well as everyone else, the goal is to not lose money. I actually think Pentax is well situated since Ricoh bought them. They are profitable, they seem to have a very good notion of what they are. They have a very solid entry in the MF niche, an upgrade this year will keep it. They have very good low end models; the kit lenses are pretty good compared to the competition, and the OVF is very nice. Good value for someone who wants more than an iphone. They have waterproof.
Full frame, in sales numbers, is a niche as well, and they will address it very nicely next year. The A7 with adapters is alright, but I'd compare it to the Q with adapters; only dedicated tinkerers will do it, and you sure don't want to have a pile invested that needs return.
Nikon and Canon have all these covered as well, but would starve to death on sales volumes that Ricoh would consider a stunning success.
Everyone in the market faces the very nasty reality that something that generates cash for them right now may very well disappear as a market. Not lose to a competitor, but just plain disappear.