[Uluru]

I think you are looking at it wrong. To use the Canon 135L as an example, prices have not risen very much in the 17 years since it was introduced. Basically it has kept up with inflation. The technology in that lens has been paid for many times over, and improvements to manufacturing processes have made it even cheaper to produce. Newer technology is not driving up the price of the 135L or any lens.

Demand is commanding the price. 135L is a very specialised lens, only few photographers interested in it. In Canon and Nikon land, zooms are in huge demand, are often updated to force new sales, upgrades, and new lucrative 'values' to justify new higher prices.

[northcoastgreg]

You can't expect new technology to drive down the price of new technology. The "new technology" of sensors is forcing lenses designers to develop new lens technology to keep up.

Prices on sensors have gone down in the last 15 years, even while the quality has risen dramatically. Lenses have improved as well, but prices have gone up, particularly on high-end zoom lenses. Just compare the prices on the previous Canon 24-70 and 70-200 f2.8 lenses and their second versions. The new Canon 24-70 f4 is $1,500. That's $350 more than the 24-105 f4. If Canon decides to upgrade that 24-105 (quite popular among local FF shooters where I live), how much will it cost?

We could find similar trends with Nikon, Sigma, even Tamron prosumer/professional glass. In the context of the economic decline of the west, these price trends will ensure that FF remains both expensive and a luxury item confined to professionals and deep pocket amateurs.

[Winder]

Demand is commanding the price. 135L is a very specialised lens, only few photographers interested in it. In Canon and Nikon land, zooms are in huge demand, are often updated to force new sales, upgrades, and new lucrative 'values' to justify new higher prices.

Explain what you mean by that. Since the price of the 135L has been very stable over the last 16 years, I guess you mean that demand has been stable. I paid $800 for mine in the late 90's, and sold it for $700 early this year. The new price is $1,000.

The 135L is considered one of the best values Canon has in L glass. It is an excellent lens for half the price of the 85L, $600 less than the 50L, and $5,000 less than the next in line 200L. I wouldn't call the 135L specialized. It is used on FF as long portrait lens and special 135mm lenses have been made like the Sony/Minolta 135mm STF and numerous soft focus versions. On a APS-C it becomes a very nice 200mm (FoV) for indoor sports. 135mm was one of the first new lenses Sony rolled out with the 135mm CZ when it bought Minolta. Sigma has a 135mm F/2.0 in the works. As FF becomes more common again the 135mm is going to increase in popularity.

[Winder]

Prices on sensors have gone down in the last 15 years, even while the quality has risen dramatically. Lenses have improved as well, but prices have gone up, particularly on high-end zoom lenses. Just compare the prices on the previous Canon 24-70 and 70-200 f2.8 lenses and their second versions. The new Canon 24-70 f4 is $1,500. That's $350 more than the 24-105 f4. If Canon decides to upgrade that 24-105 (quite popular among local FF shooters where I live), how much will it cost?

We could find similar trends with Nikon, Sigma, even Tamron prosumer/professional glass. In the context of the economic decline of the west, these price trends will ensure that FF remains both expensive and a luxury item confined to professionals and deep pocket amateurs.

In the case of sensors and camera bodies you have an economies of scale that is many, many times greater than with lenses. Technologies that are first used in other industries and for other electronic devices (memory and processors) will also be used in the next camera. To use Foveon and Sigma as an example, Sigma can't take advantage of the economies of scale with its Foveon sensor, but it can with its lens designs because they can make them for multiple mounts. In Sigma's case the bodies are much more expensive than the lenses.

The technology that goes into DSLR glass really has limited application in the consumer market, but the technology that goes into sensors is shared across millions of phones and recording devices. Moore'w Law doesn't apply to optics to my knowledge. Glass doesn't double in quality every 10 years. It becomes a lot more challenging to make lenses of a high enough quality.

There is also the question of market life. What is your expectations for the life of the glass that you by relative to the camera body? Do you upgrade all of your lenses every time you buy a new body? How much do manufacturers subsidize the cost of the body with lens sales? Canon is probably losing money on the 6D at $1,300, but it knows that most of those move-up APS-C users are going to be needing new glass.

[ElJamoquio]

the advantages of FF are just not worth the extra costs

Cost of a K-3 + 16-50 is about par with a D600 and 24-85. Last few times I checked the full frame was cheaper. YMMV.

[mc61]

Only updated with red rings and HD lens coating...Sigh

[lytrytyr]

Only updated with red rings and HD lens coating...Sigh

That's for the DA Limited primes.

This thread is speculating about the FA Limiteds.

[ElJamoquio]

That's for the DA Limited primes.

This thread is speculating about the FA Limiteds.

Yup. Heck, they might be WR (unlikely) which would make me jump to get them.

[Zygonyx]

Yup. Heck, they might be WR (unlikely) which would make me jump to get them.

I guess you wouldn't be alone here.
And i think WR is much more a realistic challenge, that doesn't imply any change in the optic formula, as DC or SDM motorisation would.

[Uluru]

I guess you wouldn't be alone here.
And i think WR is much more a realistic challenge, that doesn't imply any change in the optic formula, as DC or SDM motorisation would.

If they haven't weatherproofed DA Limiteds, they will hardly weatherproof FA Limiteds.

[Zygonyx]

Unfortunately yes.
But when you look and manipulate DA20-40mm which is a zoom (without diaph.ring) there doesn't appear to be technical hindrance to add a few rubber-joints in FA's Ltd.
I wouldn't mind loosing FA's Ltd diaph. ring if that was to facilitate WR implementation...

[Drake Avenue]

I wouldn't mind a FA 135mm f2L Limited. Wouldn't mind if Sigma made it first, either.

[MrSkelter]

My FA Limited plan is to score LNIB versions that were MIJ. These spring up from time to time and generally cost less than new MIV versions.

This plan is part of my personal protest against Pentax for raising prices without adding value.

I guess we're looking at $1,500+ for an HD coated FA 31. No freakin' thanks.

Your plan is optimistic. LNIB versions for cheap are rare.

I bought brand-new MIJ versions last year (not like-new, new-old-stock). I paid a small premium but they're brand-new. I can't imagine anyone seeing prices increase on the FA's and not adjusting the value of the 'old' FA's up. With minor changes unless they completely eliminate the CA there won't be much to choose.

Of course the new FA's won't be MIJ either most likely.

[krebsy75]

Your plan is optimistic. LNIB versions for cheap are rare.
I bought brand-new MIJ versions last year (not like-new, new-old-stock). I paid a small premium but they're brand-new. I can't imagine anyone seeing prices increase on the FA's and not adjusting the value of the 'old' FA's up. With minor changes unless they completely eliminate the CA there won't be much to choose.
Of course the new FA's won't be MIJ either most likely.

I'm willing to wait. I love the FA Limiteds but they are more of a novelty for me. Especially considering the price. I scored a new MIJ 77mm a few months back.

[MrSkelter]

I'm willing to wait. I love the FA Limiteds but they are more of a novelty for me. Especially considering the price. I scored a new MIJ 77mm a few months back.

New? Where from and how much? Actually new is essentially unobtanium. I'd be interested in knowing how yours compares to mine in terms of paperwork and packaging.

Did you get the colored bag? Mine are all the first run so I have the red, green and brown bags too.