[Kunzite]

Other than saying, "Be patient. Good things are coming" for virtually all of 2013 no one at Ricoh ever gave anything away. The NDA's must threaten first-born sons.

I'm sure for some people, a promise is more binding than an NDA. But still, it's curious how none of those who found out would say anything.

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Last edited by Kunzite; 01-12-2014 at 07:13 AM.

[monochrome]

I'm sure for some people, a promise is more binding than an NDA. But still, it's curious how none of those who found out wouldn't say anything.

I can't quite think through the double negative.

All I know is the K3 has been out for what, 60 days? with nary an advance HINT and people are already carping about what isn't out yet (or complaining because after taking three years to figure out how to make a K5 sing we can't even hum yet with a K3). I've had it three weeks and I haven't even started other than to realize I should sell a lot of stuff I'll never use again and get the DA*60~250 to make a great SYSTEM.

Pentax is what it is.

Is that a new sig?

[Kunzite]

Oops... it should be "none of those who found out would say anything". Double negation like this would work in Romanian, but then I'm trying to write in English...

The K-3 was known in some circles well before the announcement; the story I've heard: it was supposed to be launched way earlier, but for some reason it was delayed (and quite likely improved).

I changed my sig late autumn, when I suddenly started to be a bit more optimistic about Pentax future (and maybe about that thing which should not be mentioned here).

[Daikokuya]

By their remark we shall never get it, because the situation will never get really so much better. The remark is crazy. On the other hand, I just got the specs of the new FF lens just made. Cannot tell details but I can tell a fortune cookie wisdom, "Never trust a salesman who puts up an act during the exhibition".

I think those who made remarks aren't sales guys, though. Anyway, we can't trust them entirely as you said. One example is Nikon. Nikon denied FF repeatedly, but they got it out as the D3. So we can't say that Pentax won't follow the same path. Who knows? I think that the best we can do is to decide based on their comments, because we have no clue other than that.

If Pentax should release FF this year, the timing would be the worst, IMO. Canon and Nikon are supposed to replace the 5DIII and D800, respectively, as early as next year, which makes people defer spending to see what's next. Besides, the rumor has it that Sony is eager to reinforce the A mount including FF this year. Based on last year's success with the A7/r, there is no doubt that expectation is higher for Sony than Pentax.

[ElJamoquio]

Well if you like reading tea-leaves and examining goose-entrails for omens then this statement by Nikon guru Thom Hogan a few days ago might interest you: "The exclusivities on the 36mp sensor expire in late 2014, too. " It is from this blog post: Trends Fore and Aft , where he also says that he expects Pentax (and Olympus!) to have full frame bodies by early next year at the latest. His talk about FF for Pentax and Olympus is undoubtedly pure speculation, but the snippet about the 36mp sensor agreement would be fairly solid knowledge for someone with Nikon contacts as good as his.

It's a nice sensor, don't get me wrong... but I had a (small) portion of it in 2010! I'm hoping (too optimistically?) that they can beat a two-year-old Nikon sensor or a four-year-old APS-C sensor.

[ElJamoquio]

with nary an advance HINT

Don't know your definition of 'nary' or 'hint' but we knew something was coming a month or so before it was announced.

[monochrome]

"Something" coming "a month" before it was announced doesn't qualify. That kind of thing is likely intentional.

[derekkite]

"Something" coming "a month" before it was announced doesn't qualify. That kind of thing is likely intentional.

Yes. The dribbles that preceded the K3 release had the look of a concerted campaign. Very well done with a new bit of information before every weekend to occupy the interested. It worked on me, pre ordered one. No disappointment at all, except for the terrible light this winter.

[monochrome]

Yes. The dribbles that preceded the K3 release had the look of a concerted campaign. Very well done with a new bit of information before every weekend to occupy the interested. It worked on me, pre ordered one. No disappointment at all, except for the terrible light this winter.

I didn't pre-order but it worked in the sense that my plan has been to save my money and wait for FF. I got mine about December 15th.

No disappointment? I am flabbergasted!! The camera (maybe the sensor) is so much better than I am that I have to essentially start over. The K-01 / DA40Ltd. made me lazy - it is too easy to get a good, sharp, colorful capture.

normhead has convinced me the DA*60~250 is a System Lens for the K3, so the FF plan is officially out the window.

Hints from people here suggest CP+ will be a lot of lenses or lens news, and maybe a surprise.

[Uluru]

"Something" coming "a month" before it was announced doesn't qualify. That kind of thing is likely intentional.

The way it works, apparently, is that even to Ricoh employees a picture is created that the team is working on all sorts of very ambitious projects. Hi-end mirrorless, FF, 645D, K-mount DA, GR, Q, compacts, etc. — not just standalone projects, but cross-pollinated too. Therefore all kinds of crazy rumours. But what exactly they are working on, no one really knows before the announcement. Not even RIAC.

I understand then that the smoke screen of speculation is raised deliberately in order to protect the investment, long term plans and the surprise. For example K-3, as it is, perfectly fits this picture — no one could even guess how good it is going to be.

[monochrome]

The way it works, apparently, is that even to Ricoh employees it appears that the team is working on all sorts of very ambitious projects. Hi-end mirrorless, FF, 645D, K-mount DA, GR, etc. — not just standalone projects, but cross-pollinated too. Therefore all kinds of crazy rumours. But on what indeed they work on, no one really knows before the announcement.
I understand then that the smoke screen of speculation is raised deliberately in order to protect the investment and the final surprise. For example K-3, as it is, perfectly fits this picture.

As in many business, the product development people make things up that are cool and technically brilliant - even somewhat economically efficient given they reuse certain engineered processes and internals - then the finance guys get ahold of them . . . . .

Whatever work has been done can and likely will be marketed as product eventually but not necessarily soon.

As at Sony:

Sure, Only Not Yet.

[ak_kiwi]

But still, it's curious how none of those who found out would say anything.

Free stuff works

[RobA_Oz]

If Pentax should release FF this year, the timing would be the worst, IMO. Canon and Nikon are supposed to replace the 5DIII and D800, respectively, as early as next year, which makes people defer spending to see what's next. Besides, the rumor has it that Sony is eager to reinforce the A mount including FF this year. Based on last year's success with the A7/r, there is no doubt that expectation is higher for Sony than Pentax.

Conversely, you could equally well say that the timing should be governed by these other releases, otherwise, too much of your early adopter market may go with them. We've already seen that happen over the past few years, while the (already small) Pentax share of the market continued to erode. Delaying while you wait until the purchase cycle aligns to suit you is probably not a good strategy.

[Daikokuya]

Conversely, you could equally well say that the timing should be governed by these other releases, otherwise, too much of your early adopter market may go with them. We've already seen that happen over the past few years, while the (already small) Pentax share of the market continued to erode. Delaying while you wait until the purchase cycle aligns to suit you is probably not a good strategy.

You're right given that releasing FF makes financial performance better for Pentax for sure, which I think is unlikely. Pentax admits that FF accounts for only less than 20%, while APS-C's share is more than 80%. If Pentax is losing in that 80% market, could they recover in the 20% market where Canon and Nikon mostly dominate and Pentax is a complete newbie?

Furthermore, there is uncertainty this year regarding economic fundamentals. Japan's domestic markets, which supported last year's performance, wouldn't be as good as last year in 2014, because consumption tax rates are supposed to be raised in April so that every company is now looking for its survival to the US, where the economic growth would accelerate. The problem is that nobody knows for sure whether Pentax can beat Canon, Nikon or even Sony in the US markets. It looks like to me that Pentax has decided to keep in the APS-C market as good as possible without venturing into a field where they don't know. Of course, that's my opinion.

[mikemike]

You're right given that releasing FF makes financial performance better for Pentax for sure, which I think is unlikely. Pentax admits that FF accounts for only less than 20%, while APS-C's share is more than 80%. If Pentax is losing in that 80% market, could they recover in the 20% market where Canon and Nikon mostly dominate and Pentax is a complete newbie?

The 80% market is dominated because Canon and Nikon flood the big box channels with entry level models. The FF market is fought for online and at specialty stores with people who are much more engaged in photography. They might not have considered pentax before b/c they were shopping for a FF camera but they have certainly heard of them.