The K3 strikes me as something of a deliberate statement by Ricoh, showing that they can produce cameras of a really solid quality up there with anyone. And if you want a camera body of similar quality on FF, the competition will ask you for at least twice as much if not more. Hence the 200K shutter life, among other things.
Longer refresh cycles could turn out to be a tragedy of the commons. It might be in everyone's interests if it were so, but anyone who ignores it stands to gain an advantage. So everyone ignores it. Consumers are easily bored and retailers need fresh products and new marketing campaigns. it could just as easily be that the present situation of falling demand and an oversupply of cameras will be solved by several players exiting the market or being acquired by larger ones. Rationalizing the formats is another way of doing it. If the top half or third of APS-C was replaced by FF there would be fewer camera models around, for example. Ditto if M43 bit the dust in favour of APS-C or 1" cameras. How many formats were around in the days of film? No one complained there weren't enough.
What I don't get is this: FF is a very small market, but then the market for
any camera costing more than 1000 bucks is very small, ditto with lenses costing 500-1000 bucks or more. In a way, Ricoh is already playing in the FF market with the K3 and the DA and D-FA lenses, at least by virtue of sticker price. And the price of consumer FF is falling year by year too. if Ricoh can make the K3 and their better lenses work financially on APS-C then why not FF? Going against it would seem to be swimming against a very powerful tide. I'm not advocating FF per se and have no particular views on formats; I'm just looking at a rather odd state of affairs and the way the world seems to be going.
Amateur Photographer magazine here ran a poll in December asking readers "What has been your favourite trend of 2013?" 54 per cent said smaller cameras with an FF sensor and 24 per cent said lack of an AA filter. Forget the format. The overall message is that folks warm to better image quality from smaller cameras. That doesn't mean packing an FF sensor into any old camera. it might equally mean putting an APS-C sensor into a camera which might formerly have taken a 1" or 1/1.7" sensor. If there are any trends around, I'd guess smaller, better IQ and cleverer (the software side) is one. Not great news for the classic DSLR then.
So following this, what are people's two or three most significant new cameras in 2013? Mine are
Ricoh GR (APS-C quality in a small format and fairly affordable)
Sony A7 (FF quality in a small format and fairly affordable)
Sony RX10 (both image quality and the kitchen sink in terms of features in a small format though not yet fairly affordable

)
* Fairly affordable related the the part of the market the camera is in.
Each of those cameras has been very well received and reviewed so far as I know. Hardly anyone is saying they don't cut it because they lack a pentaprism and a mirrorbox.