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06-02-2014, 11:43 AM   #511
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Admitting that this is true, and not a seller ''story'', how many camera will be made until the end of this year? Tens of thousands, or only 2-3 thousands? How many Pentax DSLR users will buy it, from hundred of thousands, or maybe more than a million worldwide?

I hope it will be a success, but I think that a good FF camera made by Pentax will have a bigger one. Much Bigger.

06-02-2014, 12:02 PM   #512
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QuoteOriginally posted by JimmyDranox Quote
Admitting that this is true, and not a seller ''story'', how many camera will be made until the end of this year? Tens of thousands, or only 2-3 thousands? How many Pentax DSLR users will buy it, from hundred of thousands, or maybe more than a million worldwide?

I hope it will be a success, but I think that a good FF camera made by Pentax will have a bigger one. Much Bigger.
I have heard the same, independently, but of course it could all be BS. My understanding is the intial run of 645z is 2000 units and 400 a month was planned. That monthly number has been increased a little bit and they're still sold out. Recall the entire planned production of the 645D was 10,000 units over three years and they weren't even going to release it in the US.

Thom Hogan says USA gets 30% ~10% of the entire industry run of MILC's - 20,000 units a month. So WW production of all brands combined is approx. 65200,000 a month. Big deal - we're not really talking iPhone volume here.

At a <5% total market share of dSLR's, I wonder what the planned production for the entire run of K3 is - 70,000? 150,000? (I think it is 70,000) If FF is 10% of the dSLR market then planned production of a Pentax FF should be 7,000 units. Compared to what I've heard of the response to the 645z, 7,000 'LX-ii' bodies isn't a game changer for Pentax - it would be nice, but not a huge deal. I believe they will do it - and sooner than most of us think - but it isn't a huge money maker.

And don't count on FF lenses Pentax designs - they'll have a few, but at first many of the lenses will be co-produced or simply rebadged. They have 16 645 lenses available and/or in production.

Last edited by monochrome; 06-02-2014 at 01:02 PM.
06-02-2014, 12:42 PM   #513
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Thom Hogan says USA gets 30% of the entire industry run of MILC's - 20,000 units a month.
Make that ~10% - for the first 4 months of this year (shipments, according to CIPA).
06-02-2014, 12:56 PM   #514
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I like the performance of 645D, and I have no doubt that everyone who has this camera, is eager to have 645z.

But I have seen on this forum a looong thread, about ''why I didn't buy a K-3'', and I know some people who didn't buy it because they are waiting for a FF from Pentax. Only the number of threads about K-1, or whatever the name will be, on this forum and others, is big.

As I mentioned early, I think that the number (very small) of lenses launched in the Ricoh era, is an indication that the research department is very busy with something. Something not seen yet. And in my opinion, this something is a big FF camera/lenses launch.

06-02-2014, 01:00 PM   #515
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
Make that ~10% - for the first 4 months of this year (shipments, according to CIPA).
Opps - you are correct. I re-read the article.

If USA gets 20,000 MILC units a month = ~10% of worldwide shipments (remember, that's not production) = 2,400,000 units

We get 21% of dSLR's.

Still, I believe 70,000 annually is the right number for K3. Even if it isn't, they're not going to sell 70,000 FF cameras a year, or even 10,000, and it sure looks like they're going to sell 7,500 645z's a year.
06-02-2014, 01:30 PM   #516
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Opps - you are correct. I re-read the article.

If USA gets 20,000 MILC units a month = ~10% of worldwide shipments (remember, that's not production) = 2,400,000 units

We get 21% of dSLR's.

Still, I believe 70,000 annually is the right number for K3. Even if it isn't, they're not going to sell 70,000 FF cameras a year, or even 10,000, and it sure looks like they're going to sell 7,500 645z's a year.
The potential for a Pentax FF camera might be bigger than we assume. There comes a price point where buyers seem to significantly favor FF over APS-C and whether Canikon have driven that or reacted to it, I can't say. The K-3 is bumping toward that price point and maybe the headwinds are too great for it to be a runaway success. That specific headwind wouldn't be against a Pentax FF.
06-02-2014, 02:44 PM   #517
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Opps - you are correct. I re-read the article.

If USA gets 20,000 MILC units a month = ~10% of worldwide shipments (remember, that's not production) = 2,400,000 units

We get 21% of dSLR's.

Still, I believe 70,000 annually is the right number for K3. Even if it isn't, they're not going to sell 70,000 FF cameras a year, or even 10,000, and it sure looks like they're going to sell 7,500 645z's a year.
An other way to weigh the impact of Pentax 645Z against that of a hypothetical 24x36 by Pentax, based on CIPA data CIPA - Camera & Imaging Products Association

- total shipment of DSLRs in 2013: 13,825,569 cameras
- trend in total shipment of DSLRs (January to April 2014 compared to January to April 2013): minus 17 per cent.

- extrapolation of this trend --> forecast of 11.5 million DSLRs shipped in 2014
- Pentax share of DSLR market: less than 5 per cent. --> Pentax DSLR shipment in 2014 < 575,000
- share of 24x36 DSLR among total DSLR: between 5 and 10 per cent. --> sales forecast for a 24x36 Pentax DSLR = between 30,000 and 60,000 cameras yearly.

This is to be compared to a global market for digital medium format cameras, largely dominated by Phase One (more than 50 per cent. market share), of 10.000 to 15,000 cameras sold each year, mainly to rental companies.
06-02-2014, 03:24 PM   #518
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
The only poster here who really seems to know what is actually going on inside Pentax says it is a 150~400, FF capable zoom but doesn't know the aperture(s). He says the TC is also FF. He says the shorter zoom is FF. He says Pentax will have 'all sizes' of cameras again, like the glory days. He saysa Pentax was recently granted a patent for an OVF with a digital overlay that is better than an older one Nikon has. He says the FF will be fast, like the 645z, with double processors.

If I didn't know better I'd think Ricoh / Pentax was preparing to release a FF camera sometime soon.
150-400 is not correct

06-02-2014, 03:27 PM   #519
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What was it, asahi man? I have seen 135-380 being mentioned a couple of times.
06-02-2014, 03:27 PM - 1 Like   #520
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QuoteOriginally posted by Corinne Quote
In the German speaking subforum someone postet this information about the 645Z on May 31 (English translation below):



English translation:

The poster attended an event called Minikina in Germany and was able to speak to an employee who said that he was responsible for the training of the future 645Z dealers. The employee made the following statements:
- The whole production of 645Z cameras until the end of the year has already been sold out worldwide. There seems to be a real 645Z boom, especially in the austro-pacific region and in the USA, so that the customers buy the cameras without trying them out (!!??)
- This year, Ricoh Germany will receive only as many 645Z cameras that there will remain only approx. 2 copies per Pentax premium dealer.
- The employee himself expects that the demo cameras for the Ricoh team will only be available as from Photokina on. Therefore, for house exhibitions, there won't be any demo camera until after September.
In July i will get my 645Z Testbody,i report about it than.
Best regards
06-02-2014, 03:40 PM   #521
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QuoteOriginally posted by JimmyDranox Quote
As I mentioned early, I think that the number (very small) of lenses launched in the Ricoh era, is an indication that the research department is very busy with something. Something not seen yet. And in my opinion, this something is a big FF camera/lenses launch.
Sorry, I don't think so. If the 645 format is obviously better in terms of IQ than FF as they insist, why do they get FF out?
06-02-2014, 03:46 PM   #522
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QuoteOriginally posted by Daikokuya Quote
Sorry, I don't think so. If the 645 format is obviously better in terms of IQ than FF as they insist, why do they get FF out?
Some people can afford a $3-5K system, very few can afford a $11-15K system - or justify one.
06-02-2014, 03:53 PM   #523
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QuoteOriginally posted by ChristianRock Quote
Some people can afford a $3-5K system, very few can afford a $11-15K system - or justify one.
The K-3 is more affordable for many. It should be less than $2K with wonderful quality.
06-02-2014, 05:10 PM   #524
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Opps - you are correct. I re-read the article.

If USA gets 20,000 MILC units a month = ~10% of worldwide shipments (remember, that's not production) = 2,400,000 units

We get 21% of dSLR's.

Still, I believe 70,000 annually is the right number for K3. Even if it isn't, they're not going to sell 70,000 FF cameras a year, or even 10,000, and it sure looks like they're going to sell 7,500 645z's a year.
In the first year, Nikon's D800 was selling at some average 20,000 units per month.
It is very likely 35mm from Pentax will sell somewhere in between the K-3 and 645Z numbers. 20,000 within the first year seems booth reasonable and conservative.

---------- Post added 06-03-2014 at 10:11 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by ChristianRock Quote
What was it, asahi man? I have seen 135-380 being mentioned a couple of times.
My bet is 150-450.
06-02-2014, 05:14 PM   #525
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
An other way to weigh the impact of Pentax 645Z against that of a hypothetical 24x36 by Pentax, based on CIPA data CIPA - Camera & Imaging Products Association

- total shipment of DSLRs in 2013: 13,825,569 cameras
- trend in total shipment of DSLRs (January to April 2014 compared to January to April 2013): minus 17 per cent.

- extrapolation of this trend --> forecast of 11.5 million DSLRs shipped in 2014
- Pentax share of DSLR market: less than 5 per cent. --> Pentax DSLR shipment in 2014 < 575,000
- share of 24x36 DSLR among total DSLR: between 5 and 10 per cent. --> sales forecast for a 24x36 Pentax DSLR = between 30,000 and 60,000 cameras yearly.

This is to be compared to a global market for digital medium format cameras, largely dominated by Phase One (more than 50 per cent. market share), of 10.000 to 15,000 cameras sold each year, mainly to rental companies.
in the 'Presentation Report' CIPA forecasts 16,00x,xxx digital ILC shipments for 2014, 60% more than just 4 years ago!! (I suppose that includes MILC's, but a Unicorn Pentax FF could well be an ILC).

If Pentax = 3% that's 480,xxx ILC bodies (so K50 = what, 300,000 and K500 = another 100,000?). By our reasoning a FF Pentax should be 48,000 units, but does Pentax also have the ancillary activities necessary to attract 48,000 buyers at $2,699? A k3 at $1,100 including some deal bits is one thing, but $2,700? If all 60,000 PF members buy one what does Ricoh do for an encore?

But being totally honest, I don't know anything real - just street talk and a rare email here and there. OTOH, if they thought they could sell 50,000 FF's why haven't they done one yet?
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