[Pål Jensen]

The numbers are what they are. The FF segment is growing in relation to the overall DSLR market. It's to be expected because outside of one quirky model from Sony (A99), we're finally seeing FF cameras that are designed for enthusiasts and not just pros.

But we know that intial sales are much higher than sales further down the road. Particularly for stuff catering to the enthusiast like FF. Last years numbers are when all those FF models were released or relatively new. It is a remarkable small growth in this context and really does tell that the marked is saturated...

[Tanzer]

Actually this thread's subject was supposed to be about the CP+ Interview from way back in Feb 2014, but I guess that is just like very other thread, and trade show interview. Pentax Is Doooooomed.

[cali92rs]

But we know that intial sales are much higher than sales further down the road. Particularly for stuff catering to the enthusiast like FF. Last years numbers are when all those FF models were released or relatively new. It is a remarkable small growth in this context and really does tell that the marked is saturated...

And the APS market isnt saturated???
How many Rebels, D3XXX, D5XXX, D7XXX, KXX bodies do we need?
Let's add a few more to the pile.

[normhead]

The FF market is utterly oversaturated already. The release of the D800, D600, 5DMKIII, and the 6D, all the potential "big sellers" in the DSLR market, increased the FF market share from about 6% to about 8%. When you take into consideration the news interest and upgrading of existing FF owners, you could probably argue that the FF market shrunk....

People might just want to pause and consider that for a moment... going at 2% a year, to have half the market share, FF would have to gain 42%, at current growth rates, it would take FF 21 years to get to 50% market share. Probably 10 years just to get to where APS-c is. And that assumes that current growth, with the release of 3 consumer grade FF cameras last year, it's quite possible that every person that was actually waiting for an FF camera has already purchased one. I could have purchased a 6D instead of my K-3, for essentially the same money. This is what the FF head bangers constantly fail to understand. The fact that you can purchase an FF doesn't mean you will . In fact an APS-c user is more likely to purchase a 4/3 camera if he/she are changing formats than they are to purchase an FF, just based on random observations. At this point anyone who doesn't have an FF, simply isn't willing or able to bear the added cost of a larger format, or just doesn't see any practical reason to go larger format.

These are really obvious observations, that somehow constantly elude FF protagonists. A few of the former may at some point become FF purchasers, the later will never become FF purchasers. And just from my observations again, there are more happy APS-c shooters than dissatisfied ones. If FF is depending on APS-c shooters wanting to upgrade, I doubt even 10% of APS-c shooters are in that category. It's a very small growth segment. If FF is to become a dominant player, it's going to have to find market somewhere else, maybe 4/3 shooters who can skip APS-c altogether. It's just idle speculation that there's any market there at all at this point. a 2% increase in market share can easily be wiped out in a single quarter. I'm not really expecting that 2% increase to continue, and I'd be really interested if they can maintain current levels, or if in fact FF is going to slide back in to a no -growth scenario, or a negative growth situation, based on current market saturation and less overall interest now that those who are keen for FF have a few to choose from that are affordable.

[derekkite]

And the APS market isnt saturated???
How many Rebels, D3XXX, D5XXX, D7XXX, KXX bodies do we need?
Let's add a few more to the pile.

The market isn't for a device with a sized sensor. The market is the price point.

A Pentax full frame at $2500 or so, which I suspect they need to get a K-3 comparable dslr. Compare that to a $500-$1200 price point. The A7 grows the market because the price point is lower. So did the D600 Nikon.

If they could release a FF for $3-400 more than the K-3 they would be moving the market, but I don't think that they can.

Same with the 645D. The number of photographers capable and willing to spend $10k on a body is limited.

[Clavius]

There is so much talk about the Pentax FF camera being so very different. But nobody is able to suggest in what way it's going to be different. There were a few options, but they were to late to claim the ones they're good at.

- The only FF with SR.
- The only mirrorless FF.
- The only WR FF.
- Cheapest FF. The only real option left, but a very bad option imho.
- Even worse: FF available in a pletora of colour combinations.
- What else is there?

[monochrome]

The market is the price point.

For people who make part of or all of their income using a tool the price point can be measured after tax - that is, after the lease payment or depreciation is deducted from business revenue. In effect that makes the FF price point arificially higher for the enthusiast (who presumably cannot deduct its cost) and allows the manufacturer to price it as a lower volume / higher margin product line with Professional Support Services available.

I suspect a large part of the Ricoh Pentax (in)decision has to do with whether they think they can induce a sufficient number of professionals (who can lease and deduct the payment) to buy their camera without PSS.

[thibs]

There is so much talk about the Pentax FF camera being so very different. But nobody is able to suggest in what way it's going to be different. There were a few options, but they were to late to claim the ones they're good at.

- The only FF with SR.
- The only mirrorless FF.
- The only WR FF.
- Cheapest FF. The only real option left, but a very bad option imho.
- Even worse: FF available in a pletora of colour combinations.
- What else is there?

Everything else?

[ElJamoquio]

FF with Best UI
FF with selectable AA
FF with Best Viewfinder
FF DSLR with least mass


I agree that they've waited too long. Fortunately the FF market seems to be exploding! 33% increase y/y. Wow.

[Kunzite]

There is so much talk about the Pentax FF camera being so very different.

It's an exaggeration; Pentax is just trying to find some compelling USPs (most likely not dissimilar to the K-3's) in order to meet an acceptable sales volume.

[Zygonyx]

I know this was already said, but i am not anymore optimistic on the FF issue in K-Mount.
The more RICOH take its time issuing FF, the more new ILC mount has chances to appear.
And current Japan and "western" world macro economic context do not heIp... so like monochrome, this should be my last post on that subject until something actually arises.

[thibs]

You wiling to bet?

[monochrome]

so like monochrome, this should be my last post on that subject until something actually arises.

You'll need a lot more self discipline that I apparently possess.

[Uluru]

I know this was already said, but i am not anymore optimistic on the FF issue in K-Mount.
The more RICOH take its time issuing FF, the more new ILC mount has chances to appear....

The new tachion beam AF and the Heisenberg Compensator will, apparently, work on both mirrorless and the DSLR models.
DSLR comes first, though, and HC bracketing won't be implemented at this time, as the causality causes some issues with the mirror system, I mean, there is no time to do it, that will come later.

[kadajawi]

And while all Pentaxians care about is FF, people are moving to smaller sensors (mFT) and better video functionality. If you want to work as a photographer, you'll probably have to do video too. Pentax doesn't do video on a level that is good enough (or you can get much better cameras from other manufacturers at half the price, even if the Pentax does a good enough job), which means the professional market is dead for Pentax. And since consumers tend to buy what they see pro's shooting with (well, lower end models from those brands) Pentax might as well close shop. Meanwhile Canon, Sony and Panasonic sell $10000+ cameras that are merely somewhat improved DSLRs/mirrorless cameras. They are probably rather profitable.

Pentax could do a kick ass hybrid camera, for a reasonable price, that will get them new customers, cause they do not have to fear cutting into sales of their expensive professional cameras. The only problem is Pentax has no clue about video. APS-C is a perfect size for video, that's about the size of what they use in movie cameras. And mostly it's firmware that they have to work on, the rest is good. A few tweaks, a few features to activate, and they'd suddenly be a big deal (just like Olympus came out of nowhere with their OM-D, and has left quite an impression with videographers). Also, the video market is rather open to other brands. The Oakley founder wanted a better video camera, and few years later his company built the RED One, which was used in Hollywood. Then there is BlackMagic Design, a rather small company, with no camera experience either. And a few other new companies. And all can be a big deal.

Anyway, if Pentax really wanted to offer something new in a FF camera, there are still a few options. The smallest, lightest FF camera that is weather resistant. IF they can push down size and weight low enough I might even consider going FF, but it must not be bigger than say a K-3. That's as far as I'm willing to go. Then there is shake reduction, though again there may be physical limits that make it impossible. A FF sensor is probably rather heavy, so shifting that one around fast enough could not be doable. At which point Pentax has a massive disadvantage, cause while other brands have lenses with IS, Pentax doesn't. Even if Pentax designs a new series of FF lenses with IS, that would still put them at an disadvantage over Nikon and Canon.

I just don't see how Pentax could enter the FF market and get more than a shrug from users of other brands. No one is going to switch to Pentax for that. And the few Pentax users that will end up paying a lot for a FF camera, where you'd get a camera that is at least as good from another brand for less (cause they can actually mass manufacture the cameras), those will not be enough to make it worthwhile and affordable.