Forgot Password
Pentax Camera Forums Home
 

Reply
Show Printable Version Search this Thread
03-10-2014, 02:25 AM   #196
Pentaxian




Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 2,652
And while all Pentaxians care about is FF, people are moving to smaller sensors (mFT) and better video functionality. If you want to work as a photographer, you'll probably have to do video too. Pentax doesn't do video on a level that is good enough (or you can get much better cameras from other manufacturers at half the price, even if the Pentax does a good enough job), which means the professional market is dead for Pentax. And since consumers tend to buy what they see pro's shooting with (well, lower end models from those brands) Pentax might as well close shop. Meanwhile Canon, Sony and Panasonic sell $10000+ cameras that are merely somewhat improved DSLRs/mirrorless cameras. They are probably rather profitable.

Pentax could do a kick ass hybrid camera, for a reasonable price, that will get them new customers, cause they do not have to fear cutting into sales of their expensive professional cameras. The only problem is Pentax has no clue about video. APS-C is a perfect size for video, that's about the size of what they use in movie cameras. And mostly it's firmware that they have to work on, the rest is good. A few tweaks, a few features to activate, and they'd suddenly be a big deal (just like Olympus came out of nowhere with their OM-D, and has left quite an impression with videographers). Also, the video market is rather open to other brands. The Oakley founder wanted a better video camera, and few years later his company built the RED One, which was used in Hollywood. Then there is BlackMagic Design, a rather small company, with no camera experience either. And a few other new companies. And all can be a big deal.

Anyway, if Pentax really wanted to offer something new in a FF camera, there are still a few options. The smallest, lightest FF camera that is weather resistant. IF they can push down size and weight low enough I might even consider going FF, but it must not be bigger than say a K-3. That's as far as I'm willing to go. Then there is shake reduction, though again there may be physical limits that make it impossible. A FF sensor is probably rather heavy, so shifting that one around fast enough could not be doable. At which point Pentax has a massive disadvantage, cause while other brands have lenses with IS, Pentax doesn't. Even if Pentax designs a new series of FF lenses with IS, that would still put them at an disadvantage over Nikon and Canon.

I just don't see how Pentax could enter the FF market and get more than a shrug from users of other brands. No one is going to switch to Pentax for that. And the few Pentax users that will end up paying a lot for a FF camera, where you'd get a camera that is at least as good from another brand for less (cause they can actually mass manufacture the cameras), those will not be enough to make it worthwhile and affordable.


Last edited by kadajawi; 03-10-2014 at 02:39 AM.
03-10-2014, 02:57 AM   #197
Veteran Member




Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: West Coast , Sweden
Posts: 467
QuoteOriginally posted by kadajawi Quote
I just don't see how Pentax could enter the FF market and get more than a shrug from users of other brands. No one is going to switch to Pentax for that. And the few Pentax users that will end up paying a lot for a FF camera, where you'd get a camera that is at least as good from another brand for less (cause they can actually mass manufacture the cameras), those will not be enough to make it worthwhile and affordable.
So you mean that while Pentax makes probably the best aps-c camera on the market it is impossible for them to make a competitive FF?

Imo, FF price is coming down which reduces the possibility to make a high margin aps-c cameras. I see two ways to gain money in the future, a FF that they can sell for more and/or a mirrorless line that is cheaper to manufacture.
03-10-2014, 03:05 AM   #198
Site Supporter
Zygonyx's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Ile de France
Posts: 3,074
.... Don't forget this, as a yes COMPLETELY UNFORSEEN and UNPRECEDENTED economic context for ILC photography :

03-10-2014, 03:44 AM   #199
Banned




Join Date: May 2010
Location: Back to my Walkabout Creek
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 2,541
QuoteOriginally posted by Zygonyx Quote
.... Don't forget this, as a yes COMPLETELY UNFORSEEN and UNPRECEDENTED economic context for ILC photography :
These graphs only tell a colourful story about the stupidity of the camera manufacturing industry.
The fall in the 2011/2012 signalled a weak 2013 and a very cautious 2014. The market is shifting significantly and at least 3-4 following years will be needed before some new trends become visible.
So we are not in fact talking about any 'fall', but about unrealistic expectations set in the first place now becoming visible even to the most foolish, because they come as graphs ad pies in full colour. For as usual, the statistics are done when the game is over.
Sales are coming down to where they were supposed to be if we take out the inflated expectations by some foolish manufacturers and even more clueless "analysts" and bloggers.
Nothing to see here. Just normal business, as it should have been all along.

03-10-2014, 06:41 AM   #200
Site Supporter
Zygonyx's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Ile de France
Posts: 3,074
Thank you for analysis.
My concern is for sure the lens units production drop : is it only an accident, or new tendency as from 2013... Olympic year as you remember...
03-10-2014, 06:54 AM   #201
Pentaxian
mecrox's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Oxford, UK
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 2,117
I have a feeling that most camera manufacturers will have their decisions made for them anyway. If Canon and Nikon jump significantly, the others all have to jump too. For example, if Canon and Nikon decide to apply the screws by producing very much less expensive FF cameras even than the D610/6D, some outfits could be in a real fix. It might be silly to rule this out whatever the armchair experts may say about the cost of making silicon chips. Canonikon have only to produce bodies with assemblies like the AF module dropped in from their existing lines - they have absolutely everything else in their catalogues already.
03-10-2014, 07:27 AM   #202
Inactive Account




Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: New Orleans
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 3,053
QuoteOriginally posted by Zygonyx Quote
.... Don't forget this, as a yes COMPLETELY UNFORSEEN and UNPRECEDENTED economic context for ILC photography :
I have always wondered about what the attach rate is for lenses and cameras. I also wonder if kit lens production counts towards the amount of lenses produced. If so, I expect that close to 17 million of the 25 million lenses produced are kit lenses for the 16.8 million interchangeable lens cameras produced. A good number of the remaining 8-9 million lenses would probably be nifty fifties and thrifty thirty-fives.
03-10-2014, 07:28 AM   #203
Loyal Site Supporter
monochrome's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Kirkwood (St. Louis) MO
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 20,443
QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
These graphs only tell a colourful story about the stupidity of the camera manufacturing industry.
The fall in the 2011/2012 signalled a weak 2013 and a very cautious 2014. The market is shifting significantly and at least 3-4 following years will be needed before some new trends become visible.
So we are not in fact talking about any 'fall', but about unrealistic expectations set in the first place now becoming visible even to the most foolish, because they come as graphs ad pies in full colour. For as usual, the statistics are done when the game is over.
Sales are coming down to where they were supposed to be if we take out the inflated expectations by some foolish manufacturers and even more clueless "analysts" and bloggers.
Nothing to see here. Just normal business, as it should have been all along.
Canon and Nikon aren't market Gods. They make mistakes same as everyone else do.

Ricoh knew this sales downturn was coming early in 2013 and scheduled their production accordingly. Canon and Nikon continued to maufacture as if they didn't see the slowdown coming.

Pentax did not endure an involuntary inventory build in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters of calendar 2013 (as Nikon and Canon did) so they had more manufacturing, deal-making and pricing flexibility into the holiday season and for 2014 deal-making.

So I was told April 30, 2013 by a Ricoh Executive in a position to know the facts.

But this is at last the tenth time we've been over this ground. Either a few posters have very short memories or a few posters refuse to accept facts.

03-10-2014, 07:42 AM   #204
Inactive Account




Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: New Orleans
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 3,053
QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Canon and Nikon aren't market Gods. They make mistakes same as everyone else do.
I don't think Canon's decisions about APS-C/FF have any effect on Pentax but Nikon certainly does. Pentax has been drafting behind Nikon on sensors, picking up the same technology and getting even more out of the sensor since they split ways with Samsung. If Nikon decided to really let APS-C whither and not push sensor vendors to innovate in APS-C and instead concentrate development on FF, it could be bad for Pentax. I don't think this is very likely, but it is a minor threat.
03-10-2014, 07:53 AM   #205
Pentaxian




Join Date: Sep 2012
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 1,728
QuoteOriginally posted by Zygonyx Quote
.... Don't forget this, as a yes COMPLETELY UNFORSEEN and UNPRECEDENTED economic context for ILC photography :
Good grief! This topic has been consistently mis-represented in many places. Key piece of data: ILC camera production in 2013 was down from 2012 but still the second highest year since 2008 (no data shown before 2009). Virtually the same situation for lenses.
03-10-2014, 07:59 AM   #206
Loyal Site Supporter
monochrome's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Kirkwood (St. Louis) MO
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 20,443
QuoteOriginally posted by mikemike Quote
I don't think Canon's decisions about APS-C/FF have any effect on Pentax but Nikon certainly does. Pentax has been drafting behind Nikon on sensors, picking up the same technology and getting even more out of the sensor since they split ways with Samsung. If Nikon decided to really let APS-C whither and not push sensor vendors to innovate in APS-C and instead concentrate development on FF, it could be bad for Pentax. I don't think this is very likely, but it is a minor threat.
I'm no electrical engineer but
  1. it appears to me that is already happening (no D400)
  2. Aside from the area ( assuming a FF sensor isn't sticthed) how is a FF sensor different from an APS sensor?
FWIW, I believe from a strategy perspective Pentax considers Nikon its competition. They appear to let Canon do whatever Canon does. If we think back to the 50's and 60's and the professional camera base Nikon established first in rangefinders, then in the F-bodies while Pentax exploited the emerging post-War Upper Middle Income segment (currently 'owned' by Canon) - it will be interesting to see how Ricoh / Pentax plays out this market evolution.
03-10-2014, 08:04 AM   #207
JPT
Pentaxian




Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Tokyo
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 1,252
This graphic is pretty misleading. CIPA figures show products shipped into the distribution channel. As Uluru says, these dramatic looking figures are largely camera manufacturers reacting to overproduction in previous years. I don't think there are any reliable figures to show actual sales around the world but the decline is probably significantly less.

Also, the figures shown are the number of cameras, not the value. Most camera companies have a stated strategy to focus on the higher end of the market - meaning fewer cameras, higher value per camera. I'm afraid I can't remember where I saw it, but I did read that the average selling price of cameras increased in the Japanese market in 2013 compared to 2012. So perhaps their strategy of reining in overproduction and focusing on high-end models is working. This data does not provide any insight into that.

Another related point is that the categories are somewhat crude. An Olympus EM-1 is closer to a K-3 than it is to a Nikon J3, but it is in the same category as the J-3 nonetheless. Similarly, a Ricoh GR is a very different camera to a low end point-and-shoot, but it is in the same category. I'm convinced that the Pentax Q series competes more with compacts in the Japanese market than it does with the other mirrorless cameras. It would be more meaningful to break down cameras according to their selling price than by the technology they happen to use.

I'm not trying to say everything is fine for the camera industry - far from it. You can still find tons of heavily discounted K-30s in the shops in Japan, which can't have been the plan. The same is true of all the manufacturers. But the graphic is cherry-picking the most dramatic figures without much context. "OMG - 40% Drop!!!"
03-10-2014, 08:12 AM   #208
Veteran Member




Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 4,893
As a consumer of DSLR's, 2012 was an exciting year for me.

5DIII, 6D, D800, D600, D4, 1D X. All 2012 if IIRC (I might not).

Those Fuji's were exciting everyone by blatantly lying about ISO by a stop or two, too, about that same time.

2013 might have a bazillion reasons, but as one datum... I never remotely considered a camera intro'd in 2013. I know a lot of people here will cry 'K-3' which is a nice camera; but Pentax won't be able to drive the industry for a few more years.introduced.
03-10-2014, 08:26 AM   #209
Inactive Account




Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: New Orleans
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 3,053
QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I'm no electrical engineer but
  1. it appears to me that is already happening (no D400)
  2. Aside from the area ( assuming a FF sensor isn't sticthed) how is a FF sensor different from an APS sensor?
FWIW, I believe from a strategy perspective Pentax considers Nikon its competition. They appear to let Canon do whatever Canon does. If we think back to the 50's and 60's and the professional camera base Nikon established first in rangefinders, then in the F-bodies while Pentax exploited the emerging post-War Upper Middle Income segment (currently 'owned' by Canon) - it will be interesting to see how Ricoh / Pentax plays out this market evolution.
Some features of the design are certainly things which just scale from one size to the next but others might require a substantial investment for a specific sensor size. For example on-chip phase detection. If Nikon decided to reserve that feature as something exclusive to FF cameras and didn't order APS-C sensors with that, the sensor vendor might not be inclined to spend the time adding that to a run just for Pentax especially if it required some custom design of a different array layout on APS-C.

I think Nikon and Pentax's relationship is more one of co-opetition similar to auto manufacturers, if they have the same suppliers they need to move in the same general direction at least pentax needs to move in the same direction as Nikon in certain areas. Canon is very vertically integrated, designing and producing their own sensors.
03-10-2014, 10:37 AM - 1 Like   #210
Pentaxian




Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 2,652
QuoteOriginally posted by Supernaut Quote
So you mean that while Pentax makes probably the best aps-c camera on the market it is impossible for them to make a competitive FF?

Imo, FF price is coming down which reduces the possibility to make a high margin aps-c cameras. I see two ways to gain money in the future, a FF that they can sell for more and/or a mirrorless line that is cheaper to manufacture.
Yes. Because they don't have to be just competitive. They have to be BETTER. A lot better. Can they do their own 5D, at least in terms of stills? Yeah. Probably. But why would you buy one? You don't have stabilized lenses. You don't have a stabilized body. You don't have the ecosystem to support it. And the to be expected low sales figures mean you also won't have attractive pricing! Now maybe Pentax CAN develop something that will wow the camera world, but that takes time, and it takes a lot of resources. I wouldn't want to not get an upgrade to the K-3 for the next few years cause of that, and I wouldn't want prices to go up either. For Pentax FF would be what the Bugatti Veyron was for Volkswagen. They lost money with every single car they sold, and who knows what ridiculous sums they poured into the project! But it's VW, they are big, rich and can afford such a prestige project. Pentax though...? Pentax is already a prestige project for Ricoh, I'm afraid.

A high margin APS-C camera is still possible, IMHO, IF it has some stand out features. I wouldn't buy a 7D over a 5D if I had the budget. Both are huge and heavy. But a K-3 over a 5D? Hell yes. (Ok, actually, I'd probably buy a 5D Mk III, but that's because of video). You see, my wrist just doesn't like the 7D/5D. Neither does my arm, my neck, ...

As for mirrorless not being a big deal... yes, for now many people seem to think that bigger is better. But how long will that continue? mFT sensors have become rather good, APS-C even more so. The Super 35 sized sensor in the RED Epic Dragon is somewhere between APS-C and FF (closer to APS-C IIRC) and has beaten the D800E in DXOMark. Yes, FF sensors will improve too, but aren't we reaching a point where it really doesn't matter that much anymore? How much better is a MF sensor compared to a FF or APS-C sensor?

Asking Pentax to build a FF camera is like asking BMW to build V12 engines, when actual consumer needs (except for a few bigger is better enthusiasts) is moving towards 3 and 4 cylinder engines. Which can be quite powerful.

Nikon is embracing video (well, sort of. The D4/D4s suck, but the D800 is pretty damn good, and the D5300 is bloody amazing for the price (though lacking in usability, but I guess that's cause of the price and positioning. The D7200 should be a killer though, if they can give it the same video quality AND a better, more professional user oriented UI/controls)). I hope Pentax realizes that.

The Fuji's are exciting because they are LOVELY to use. They make me want to take photos all day. Just to have pressed that shutter button. Just to have looked through that viewfinder. The quality of the photos... meh, but I enjoyed using them.

Doesn't Nikon/Pentax tend to use Toshiba or Sony sensors anyway? At least Sony is developing the sensors for themselves too, and to them APS-C is quite important I reckon.
Reply

Bookmarks
  • Submit Thread to Facebook Facebook
  • Submit Thread to Twitter Twitter
  • Submit Thread to Digg Digg
Tags - Make this thread easier to find by adding keywords to it!
advantages, aps-c, apsc, blog, camera, compacts, cp, cp 2014 interview, data, dslr, excuse, ff, gen, interview, lens, lenses, market, matter, month, nikon, pentax, pentax news, pentax rumors, photographers, pictures, range, ricoh, system
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CP+ 2014 Pentax Interview: Question Suggestions Adam Photographic Industry and Professionals 137 02-24-2014 12:59 AM
Videos from CP+ 2014 crewl1 Pentax News and Rumors 25 02-19-2014 11:58 PM
CES 2014 and CP+ 2014 Uluru Pentax News and Rumors 134 01-25-2014 09:11 AM
CP+ 2013 Pentax Interview Posted Adam Pentax News and Rumors 49 02-20-2013 06:57 AM
PentaxForums.com Exclusive Interview at CP+ - Posted! Adam Pentax News and Rumors 367 03-05-2012 08:42 AM



All times are GMT -7. The time now is 07:09 AM. | See also: NikonForums.com, CanonForums.com part of our network of photo forums!
  • Red (Default)
  • Green
  • Gray
  • Dark
  • Dark Yellow
  • Dark Blue
  • Old Red
  • Old Green
  • Old Gray
  • Dial-Up Style
Hello! It's great to see you back on the forum! Have you considered joining the community?
register
Creating a FREE ACCOUNT takes under a minute, removes ads, and lets you post! [Dismiss]
Top