[ElJamoquio]

New lenses would be better than old ones in a variety of ways. They would likely be sharper, lighter, have new coatings, be WR, have silent focusing motors and quick shift.

The 24-70 would likely be a must-buy for me.

I'd like the limiteds to be quickshift and WR (don't care about the other things) but expect they'll actually be quickshift without WR.

[Uluru]

Maybe between Q, K, (L) and 645 Pentax has a new product to announce virtually every month for years to come - and force themselves into the photography press by sheer force of announcements. Boom. Boom. Boom BOOM. BOOM BOOM. Boom boom BOOM. Every. Month. For. Years.

Imagine. Change.

That would be Different.

Jingle all the way, every month?
Hah, good luck with that. Life is hardly a Christmas fantasy. I expect fewer and fewer models from them, but lasting longer in terms of product cycles. Everything has changed in the last 3 years, and for the worse of the entire industry and its market.
Speaking of that, absolutely no chance their Christmas fantasy of being no 3 imaging company will come true anytime soon, not even in 5-7 years. Too small, tiny voice, small operating capital, risk averse, too long development cycles, dependant on miracles and Hail Mary passes every step along the way, lagging in marketing and in logistics too far behind the more competent and ready rivals.
But they can dream and we along with them too. Wasn't John Lennon a Pentaxian too

[Kunzite]

It's not going to fail in the same way that the k-3 hasn't failed. It will be a great camera, maybe even be top of the heap. But it wont cause people outside of the tiny Pentax sphere to switch. That's fine I guess.

It's not realistic to expect a product to make Canon/Nikon users to switch en masse to Pentax, so it has to be fine Some will do it (those tired of large FF beasts but not willing to go MILC, returning Pentaxians...) but getting the most new users will be at the APS-C level.

No, it doesn't sell well. It does not sell as it was expected.
Availability of old lenses that are still good enough for use on current crop sensors and availability of adapters is what cripples the sale of new lenses. A camera company wants to sell a new lens, not an adapter for you to use your grandpa's lens on a new camera!

Why are Canon and Nikon still able to sell new lenses? Their second hand market is way more developed than Pentax'.
Something doesn't add up.

Used lens market is readying for the Pentax FF because all the sellers are well aware Pentax has a poor FF lens lineup atm. Wait till that FA*85 comes to $2K if the camera is announced!

They, and almost all PF members around here, for some economically implausible reason expect Pentax brand to come with a cheap DSLR; users to finally get their hands on the FF to use their old 135 format lenses, and sellers of used lenses to maximise their gain on sales of those same lenses. Everyone wins, right?

No. The real loser is the Pentax brand, as it gets no return on investment, and very slim profits from current lens sales. It has only a handful of lenses ready and half of them must be updated. The ROI pours entirely into the used lens market!

So if Pentax would launch a 85mm f/1.4 for about $1600 (same price as the equivalent Nikkor), people would still buy the FA* 85mm for $2000? Really?
And we're sitting on heaps of such lenses, hiding them in wait for such a price increase? Both selling them, and using them with the new FF I suppose.
Nonsense. We are buying new Pentax lenses now, and we'll still be buying them when going FF.

So if we exclude the impossible and economically suicidal, we are left with two possible answers:

1 — Ricoh Imaging to completely revamp the entire FF lens lineup, create lens choices and introduce an affordable DSLR camera, or
2 — Invest into a much more expensive FF camera, that challenges everything out there, pushes the barriers, and keep the lens choices at a bare minimum of selected ones. An absolutely premium stuff in terms of everything, and absolutely different from the competition.

Each option requires lots of energy and money, and time, but only the second option guarantees unique selling point, new technological and usability breakthroughs. Second option also clearly cuts the legacy burden from the equation too: the old should definitely be not good enough to be bothered with on a camera that costs $4K. If someone is spending $4K for a camera, one can also spend $1K on a new lens, not on an old dog of a lens from the used market for the same price or higher.

The camera must justify investment in new lenses, only available from Pentax.

Right... "possible answers". Why not including:
3 - Ricoh Imaging to launch a highly competent (K-3 level) FF DSLR, with some new lenses in the beginning - and gradually adding more.

This won't require any extraordinary effort and is actually feasible. But maybe that's the problem, that it can be done?

[Clavius]

OK, so if it wasn't mirrorless, it's going to be a DSLR....what can possibly be the reason for waiting this long? Are they waiting for complete market saturation before jumping in?

As shown by each and every product since the takeover, Ricoh is farming what was down Hoya's pipe for all its worth. And full frame wasn't in there.

No, it doesn't sell well. It does not sell as it was expected.
Availability of old lenses that are still good enough for use on current crop sensors and availability of adapters is what cripples the sale of new lenses. A camera company wants to sell a new lens, not an adapter for you to use your grandpa's lens on a new camera!

What's good enough for a crop sensor doesn't mean it's good enough for that FF. Have you seen the pictures in the Pentax-glass-on-A7r thread? Now compare the quality of those pictures with pictures from the same camera with more modern lenses. There's you answer. The old glass simply will not cut it. The FF sensor to be used in the FF Pentax should just demand modern lens performance. Presto! Users are happy that they can still use grandpa's lenses, but as expected those won't make full use of that sensor; that will require an upgrade. Shame to spend such an amount on such a high res camera, and then not buy at least one lens that takes the full advantage of that resolution. The ones that don't care about that extra IQ enough to buy modern lenses probably also won't care enough about it to even buy an FF camera.

---

Last edited by Clavius; 03-05-2014 at 02:22 AM.

[Uluru]

..
So if Pentax would launch a 85mm f/1.4 for about $1600 (same price as the equivalent Nikkor), people would still buy the FA* 85mm for $2000? Really?

No, because Pentax will never launch 85mm/1.4.
My point was that under the current situation, the second-hand lens market will flourish after the FF DSLR from Pentax is announced and in the price range of D610. It is not good for Pentax to do that. A cheap FF body will damage Pentax seriously, as it will savage its APS-C line and anything valuable within it. Who will buy new DA20-40 for the FF, for goodness sake, if the FF is a couple of hundred $ more expensive than the K-3?

It is best if the FF is approached as a wholly different level game. Lift it up from the mud and nastiness of the D6/ D610 / A7, and give it some dignity.

---------- Post added 03-05-2014 at 09:12 PM ----------

..
Right... "possible answers". Why not including:
3 - Ricoh Imaging to launch a highly competent (K-3 level) FF DSLR, with some new lenses in the beginning - and gradually adding more.
This won't require any extraordinary effort and is actually feasible. But maybe that's the problem, that it can be done?

But it's not being done, albeit it is fairly simple, right?

I believe there is a good reason for Pentax to be reluctant to go that seemingly easy direction and I have tried to explicate why it is not a good one.

Through the FF project there is a unique chance for Ricoh Imaging to prove itself a different league of a camera manufacturer. It will be a sin to miss that once-in-a-lifetime chance and not educate the market and shift people's perceptions. They should not tell how they can do everything others can — on the contrary, they should be telling *no one else* can do what they can.

Now is the right time, and the best opportunity ever for the entire team who show everyone what they really know. But a cheapo FF will only tell everyone they don't have a clue.

[thibs]

No, because Pentax will never launch 85mm/1.4.
My point was that under the current situation, the second-hand lens market will flourish after the FF DSLR from Pentax is announced and in the price range of D610. It is not good for Pentax to do that. A cheap FF body will damage Pentax seriously, as it will savage its APS-C line and anything valuable within it. Who will buy new DA20-40 for the FF, for goodness sake, if the FF is a couple of hundred $ more expensive than the K-3?

It is best if the FF is approached as a wholly different level game. Lift it up from the mud and nastiness of the D6/ D610 / A7, and give it some dignity.

---------- Post added 03-05-2014 at 09:12 PM ----------



But it's not being done, albeit it is fairly simple, right?

I believe there is a good reason for Pentax to be reluctant to go that seemingly easy direction and I have tried to explicate why it is not a good one.
Through the FF there is a unique chance for Ricoh Imaging to prove itself a different league of camera manufacturer, and it will be a sin to miss that chance and not educate the market and shift people's perceptions. They should not tell now they can do everything thers can — in fact, they shuold be telling no one else can do what they can.

Now is the right time, and the best opportunity ever for the team who show everyone what they really know. But a cheapo FF will only tell everyone they don't have a clue.

An FF K3 wouldn't be cheapo at all so it is completely relevant.

[Pål Jensen]

OK, so if it wasn't mirrorless, it's going to be a DSLR....what can possibly be the reason for waiting this long? Are they waiting for complete market saturation before jumping in?

The FF market is utterly oversaturated already. The release of the D800, D600, 5DMKIII, and the 6D, all the potential "big sellers" in the DSLR market, increased the FF market share from about 6% to about 8%. When you take into consideration the news interest and upgrading of existing FF owners, you could probably argue that the FF market shrunk....

[Clavius]

Uluru, there may be a lot of old legacy Pentax FF glass on the market to compete with new lens sales. But for the CaNikon competitors it is even worse. Their used market is flooded with modern autofocussing lenses. Some of which are good enough for the best FF sensors. That doesn't stop them either. Moreover, amongst the CaNikon userbase there are even pros that rather hire lenses then buy them. And what consumers buy a FF camera plus a full lineup of brand new modern lenses?

[Pål Jensen]

1 — Ricoh Imaging to completely revamp the entire FF lens lineup, create lens choices and introduce an affordable DSLR camera, or
2 — Invest into a much more expensive FF camera, that challenges everything out there, pushes the barriers, and keep the lens choices at a bare minimum of selected ones. An absolutely premium stuff in terms of everything, and absolutely different from the competition. .

The second one is the most likely. It may, however, be just expensive and not loaded with gizmos.
Pentax have stated that APS is where the action is and that an FF system will not replace or conflict with this. Don't expect loads of FF lenses...

[Kunzite]

No, because Pentax will never launch 85mm/1.4.
My point was that under the current situation, the second-hand lens market will flourish after the FF DSLR from Pentax is announced and in the price range of D610. It is not good for Pentax to do that. A cheap FF body will damage Pentax seriously, as it will savage its APS-C line and anything valuable within it. Who will buy new DA20-40 for the FF, for goodness sake, if the FF is a couple of hundred $ more expensive than the K-3?

Wow. They just won't do it no matter what; you know, because you're involved in all their top-level meetings.
The second hand lens market cannot flourish if there aren't enough lenses for it. And if we're seeing high prices, that's because there aren't enough lenses now - but when the demand will increase? Come on, that's basics.

You didn't explain how it doesn't affect Canon and Nikon, but only the much smaller Pentax.

Note that I'm not talking about a "cheap FF body" and you might have a point - an expensive FF camera that nobody would buy cannot affect the second hand market

But it's not being done, albeit it is fairly simple, right?

I believe there is a good reason for Pentax to be reluctant to go that seemingly easy direction and I have tried to explicate why it is not a good one.

It's not being done? Says who?

And again, that wasn't a "cheap FF"; but:
3 - Ricoh Imaging to launch a highly competent (K-3 level) FF DSLR, with some new lenses in the beginning - and gradually adding more.
if your logic only works by only considering the extremes and ignoring more reasonable choices, then it isn't very sound.

#2 means to surpass the Canikon pro monsters while not having a suitable lens range; highly expensive yet without a system to support it. Really.

[mecrox]

Perhaps we should be looking more along the lines of something which will sell well in Japan and the Far East, not cost too much to develop, not conflict with their APS-C business and which is configured to command a premium price? The process of elimination brings us to a 36-mpx Ricoh compact with a fixed lens, a GR++ but perhaps with an EVF unlike the Sony RX1. Lol, just saying. Whatever they do, a lot of people somewhere will be upset so they might as well shrug that one off and just get on with it - whatever it is, or is not. Just don't expect some industry-shaking fireworks display. This is a modestly run operation after all which I think accounts for 1 per cent of Ricoh's overall business.

[Kunzite]

<sigh...>
We know what it will be, a DSLR as stated by Pentax.

[normhead]

Yup. Now let's brace ourselves for the "wah, there's no FF yet" onslaught

Thanks for the warning... I hate it when that catches me off guard.

[IchabodCrane]

The FF market is utterly oversaturated already. The release of the D800, D600, 5DMKIII, and the 6D, all the potential "big sellers" in the DSLR market, increased the FF market share from about 6% to about 8%. When you take into consideration the news interest and upgrading of existing FF owners, you could probably argue that the FF market shrunk....

The numbers are what they are. The FF segment is growing in relation to the overall DSLR market. It's to be expected because outside of one quirky model from Sony (A99), we're finally seeing FF cameras that are designed for enthusiasts and not just pros.

[Kunzite]

Thanks for the warning... I hate it when that catches me off guard.

This thread's subject is not FF per se, but why PentaxIsDoomed.