It is as clear as mud
Cameras can make some profit only for a while. Then they lose all value and barely break even. Lenses and accessories continue making the real profit.
The significant shift in ILC market will come when both Canon and Nikon introduce FF in all their DSLR models. But that will take some time. Indeed that is their mid- to long-term plan, as they see no point in maintaining two lines of, basically, same product. It is more economically feasible for them to invest into new FF bodies as they already have 5x more lenses for FF than for crop sensors. Their gain by investing in FF is maximised, and the state of chaos reduced.
See the current situation in Crop lens department:
C + N <= P
Pentax has as many crop lenses as Canon and Nikon combined. Yet,
Nikon and Canon are withdrawing slowly from the Crop market.
That is interesting, because as
Nikon and Canon both aim towards the state of lower entropy,
some Pentax users are pushing Pentax in the state of higher entropy and higher disorder. The Pentax K-mount system is currently in the state of lowest entropy possible: the number of new Crop accessories and lenses is at its peak. Pentax is already enjoying better strategic focus and maximisation of the ROI, something Canon and Nikon would love to achieve from the manufacturing point of view.
In reality there is no "FF vs Crop battle", but the economic and strategic struggle to achieve a working system with lowest possible entropy, and then maximise the potential of such a system. Towards that end, Nikon and Canon strive by pushing forward the FF and substituting many mid-range Crop cameras with FF alternatives.
Pentax strives towards it by perfecting the Crop. If Pentax keeps their effort in perfecting the Crop sensor DSLRs, their ROI will be maximised and users granted with far more sophisticated cameras and lenses that maximise the potential of the highest level of order of the system.
The introduction of an FF into the perfect low-entropy system will cause disruption -- more or less so, depending how that FF camera is designed, of course, and how it may utilise the potential of the entire current system. As time goes, entropy will raise as newer and newer models of the FF camera will be introduced, pushing the system into higher state of chaos, therefore minimising its ROI and lowering its potential.
From this perspective, if I were Ricoh Imaging, I’d totally skip the FF within K-mount system as it will bring them no greater good, only long term minimisation of ROI and higher entropy. They should fare much better if maximising the potential of the 645 and Crop.
Last edited by Uluru; 03-16-2014 at 06:11 PM.