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04-16-2014, 06:31 AM   #91
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
No ideea, but the initial production volume is a mere 400 units per month (100 lower than for the 645D)
I thought I read the initial inventory was to be 10,000 units and that 8,000 units were pre-sold during CP+ at the Japanese seminars. Perhaps I read incorrectly.

[EDIT: CORRECTION >> It was rumored to be 2000 units initial inventory, 80% ot which were pre-sold to Japanese buyers].


Last edited by monochrome; 04-16-2014 at 08:52 AM.
04-16-2014, 06:40 AM   #92
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I thought I read the initial inventory was to be 10,000 units and that 8,000 units were pre-sold during CP+ at the Japanese seminars. Perhaps I read incorrectly.
That would be USD68,000,000. Not a bad start....
04-16-2014, 06:47 AM   #93
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QuoteOriginally posted by Sandy Hancock Quote
That would be USD68,000,000. Not a bad start....
I don't know how cameras are distributed in Japan, but out-the-factory-door I assume less than half the $8,500 actually goes to Ricoh.

Using your formula, if K3 sells 300,000 units (purely a guess on my part) that's $390,000,000 USD. That number is low, I think. I once read, I think, that the planned production run for K-01 was 125,000 units.
04-16-2014, 06:52 AM   #94
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I thought I read the initial inventory was to be 10,000 units and that 8,000 units were pre-sold during CP+ at the Japanese seminars. Perhaps I read incorrectly.
Well I hope that is not correct, but only in one sense: if that means just 2000 units left to cover the rest of the world, and the 8000 pre-sales are for Japan, it raises the question of how much Ricoh are really prepared to put behind this new camera unless they have swiftly ordered a second run. More inventory + more marketing = more risk but I hope the old Pentax cycle of covering the home market + a bit extra on the side is going to be broken once and for all. I'd have thought that a large proportion of the PhaseOne et al market is there for the taking with the right moves and the right support from Ricoh. A 645Z in every professional studio around the world isn't that far-fetched at these new prices.

04-16-2014, 07:03 AM   #95
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I thought I read the initial inventory was to be 10,000 units and that 8,000 units were pre-sold during CP+ at the Japanese seminars. Perhaps I read incorrectly.
I hope you're right.
My source is the Japanese announcement:
??????????????????????????PENTAX 645Z??????RICOH IMAGING
04-16-2014, 07:10 AM   #96
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I hope you're right.
My source is the Japanese announcement:
??????????????????????????PENTAX 645Z??????RICOH IMAGING
当初月産数 400台

which means

Initial monthly production number 400 pieces
04-16-2014, 07:17 AM   #97
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I hope you're right.
My source is the Japanese announcement:
??????????????????????????PENTAX 645Z??????RICOH IMAGING
I would be surprised if total lifetime sales of the 645z were more than 12,000 units over a 5 year run. The price might up that vis-a-vis Hasselbald/Phase One competition, but not by a huge amount.

This is not a large market by any stretch.
04-16-2014, 08:38 AM   #98
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
I would be surprised if total lifetime sales of the 645z were more than 12,000 units over a 5 year run. The price might up that vis-a-vis Hasselbald/Phase One competition, but not by a huge amount.

This is not a large market by any stretch.
Dollars to donuts that prediction is going to be proved wrong though not necessarily in the case of Pentax. If sensor prices are kept low, another outfit comes in too perhaps with a modestly priced mirrorless offering, more adapters for MF film-era lenses start to appear, etc, etc. One can see that with canny marketing, things might start to move - Medium Format returns to digital, digital at last moves beyond 35mm, etc, etc. I accept the market will never be large, but if Nikon can shift tens of thousands of high-end FF cameras and lenses for not a great deal less money, there might well be more here over the next few years than sales of 200 units a month worldwide.

04-16-2014, 08:53 AM   #99
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I thought I read the initial inventory was to be 10,000 units and that 8,000 units were pre-sold during CP+ at the Japanese seminars. Perhaps I read incorrectly.

[EDIT: CORRECTION >> It was rumored to be 2000 units initial production, 80% ot which were pre-sold to Japanese buyers].
QuoteOriginally posted by Sandy Hancock Quote
That would be USD68,000,000. Not a bad start....
See the correction above.
04-16-2014, 08:58 AM   #100
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Dollars to donuts that prediction is going to be proved wrong though not necessarily in the case of Pentax. If sensor prices are kept low, another outfit comes in too perhaps with a modestly priced mirrorless offering, more adapters for MF film-era lenses start to appear, etc, etc. One can see that with canny marketing, things might start to move - Medium Format returns to digital, digital at last moves beyond 35mm, etc, etc. I accept the market will never be large, but if Nikon can shift tens of thousands of high-end FF cameras and lenses for not a great deal less money, there might well be more here over the next few years than sales of 200 units a month worldwide.
Adapters?

Do you have any idea how few people play with adapters? They are an eBay item and a rare sale in brick and mortal stores.

Manual focus medium format will increase sales?

These do nothing to increase unit sales. They only reinforce niche status.

Nikon's (and Canon's ) FF sales are gamed by the pro market whose first adopter cachet and restricted use (ever been frisked at the gate before a ballgame for an oversize camera?) drives sales and prosumer prices.

We are talking a small market product, even for FF:

Nikon Sales of High-End Cameras Slipping

FF *might* make up 10% of unit sales and 50% of net revenues to a company like Nikon. But you're not going to release a higher priced medium format system in a larger form factor and take that thunder (not with adapters and manual focus being the main draw).

Pentax only makes 400 units per month during the initial run, and then, like almost all tech industry products, scale back substantially as demand wanes.

The 645z sensor alone is probably $900+ per unit at 400/month volumes.
04-16-2014, 09:15 AM   #101
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
.......................

"equivalence" is no nonsense, just a way to understand things. Like if a larger format has more trouble being used handheld.
Equivalence is a way to understand things, but its usefulness is questionable. Every day there are people buying cameras that have never taken a single photo on 35mm film, so knowing the equivalent FL, or DOF, or anything else as it relates to that format is useless/meaningless to them. My Ram pickup has a cargo capacity of about 2,000lbs. How useful is it to know how many Ford Model A pickups would yield the equivalent carrying capacity? I know that if I hit my thumb with a hammer, it hurts. What's the benefit in calculating the equivalent force needed to yield the same amount of pain by hitting it with a rock?

Seriously, if I have an APS-c format camera and a 645Z and I decide that the 645Z is the best body to use for a particular subject or scene, (due to pixel count, DOF, whatever) I only need to know what lens to put on it to capture the scene as I wish to capture it. The comparative, or mathematical relationship between that and what I would need to do to get a similar result in the other format is completely superfluous.

As my sig line reads: Life gets easier once you forget the concept of "crop factor" and "full frame equivalent"

EDIT: Sometime between the time I quoted him, and the time I finished writing this response, Falconeye deleted his post. There is nothing wrong with that. I only mention it so nobody will wonder what I was quoting.

Last edited by Parallax; 04-16-2014 at 09:22 AM.
04-16-2014, 09:42 AM   #102
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Adapters?

Do you have any idea how few people play with adapters? They are an eBay item and a rare sale in brick and mortal stores.

Manual focus medium format will increase sales?

These do nothing to increase unit sales. They only reinforce niche status.

Nikon's (and Canon's ) FF sales are gamed by the pro market whose first adopter cachet and restricted use (ever been frisked at the gate before a ballgame for an oversize camera?) drives sales and prosumer prices.

We are talking a small market product, even for FF:

Nikon Sales of High-End Cameras Slipping

FF *might* make up 10% of unit sales and 50% of net revenues to a company like Nikon. But you're not going to release a higher priced medium format system in a larger form factor and take that thunder (not with adapters and manual focus being the main draw).

Pentax only makes 400 units per month during the initial run, and then, like almost all tech industry products, scale back substantially as demand wanes.

The 645z sensor alone is probably $900+ per unit at 400/month volumes.
Come back in a few years. I think you are being unduly pessimistic. Ask the A7r crowd about adapters. They don't seem to have too much problem with them. The MF cameras are bigger and surely not all-rounders, but I think we've all become intimidated by the hitherto high prices and mystique encouraged by the likes of PhaseOne, Leica and co., not to mention luxurious exclusivity (Russian premier using a Leica S MF, e.g.) available only to a select few blah blah. BS. Time to say goodbye to all of that.
04-16-2014, 09:52 AM   #103
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Ask the A7r crowd about adapters. They don't seem to have too much problem with them
  1. That probably isn't a valid, predictive sample given those users are also comfortable with an EVF
  2. Really? Doesn't the adapter obligate the user to focus manually?
    1. CONS Extreme resolution makes focus and lens quality critical; Modest performance; Loud shutter; Lacks hybrid autofocus of the A7; Mediocre battery life when using electronic viewfinder; Slow X-sync; Limited selection of native Sony FE lenses. - Imaging Resource review
  3. An A7r is small. Even with a lens attached. Do you actually suggest a mirrorless 645 or other 44x33 camera will be pocketable with a lens atached? (Of course you don't). If not, then what on earth is the point of a mirrorless medium format interchangeable lens camera?
04-16-2014, 10:58 AM   #104
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Come back in a few years. I think you are being unduly pessimistic. Ask the A7r crowd about adapters. They don't seem to have too much problem with them.
Yep because the A7/A7r (and Nexes before that) sell essentially on the body.
It is very nice to boast marketshare counting the bodies but money is made on lenses and I doubt VERY much Sony sold more than few kit lenses and so, made not much money (relative to body units sold).

As usual with Sony, this is a short term benefit, long term losses strategy.
04-16-2014, 11:20 AM   #105
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Come back in a few years. I think you are being unduly pessimistic. Ask the A7r crowd about adapters. They don't seem to have too much problem with them. The MF cameras are bigger and surely not all-rounders, but I think we've all become intimidated by the hitherto high prices and mystique encouraged by the likes of PhaseOne, Leica and co., not to mention luxurious exclusivity (Russian premier using a Leica S MF, e.g.) available only to a select few blah blah. BS. Time to say goodbye to all of that.
The A7r doesn't have a "crowd". It might sell maybe 30,000 units, if that.

An entry-level Canon model will sell 1.5 million units...per year.

Most people don't realize that the photography market, which in the post-film era is now almost exclusively centred on the camera, is a pyramid.

Once you get into the D4, Leica, and Pentax 645z price range, you're talking about only 0.1% of unit sales in digital (non-phone) cameras.

Most bodies take a loss. The cash is in the glass and a proprietary mount. Adapters and "cross-platform" users actually kill your margins, not increase them.
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