[Class A]

No, I really don't think it's now or never.

I agree in as much it is too late to exploit market conditions.

If it takes Ricoh two more years to produce an FF camera, probably not much will have changed.

Before the D600 and the 6D were launched, there was a window of opportunity for Pentax to capitalise on market conditions and sway some APS-C Canikon shooters over to Pentax by introducing the first FF DSLR that isn't huge and overpriced.

Today, a lot of former Pentaxians have already switched to shooting with a D800, A7*, etc. Some more will have switched and/or got rid of their residual Pentax stuff in two more years, but I think the most substantial damage has already happened.

[mecrox]

Tom Hogan put it quite well in a recent article on Photokina. In general, not much of any great import is expected from an industry wrestling with falling sales. In the case of Ricoh in particular and looking ahead, the question he posed is whether you expect Ricoh to be "in it to win it" or content themselves with "mild iterations of things they’ve been doing". So, top three full-line camera business or "hobby business", at least compared to Ricoh's overall size? Ricoh have certainly been talking up the first in some of their interviews, but I wonder if their presence at Photokina will lean more to the second in actual fact. A serious go at an APS-C or similar mirrorless system would nix that one, as would an FF, but no one seems to expect a move into MILCs and FF seems where it's been for many years now, i.e somewhere up in the clouds. I guess we'll soon find out.

[ElJamoquio]

Last year was the highest revenue year for ILC's ever.

This year is a tick off of that but we still have Photokina to go, and industry-wide the cameras are old.

[Kunzite]

I agree in as much it is too late to exploit market conditions.

If it takes Ricoh two more years to produce an FF camera, probably not much will have changed.

Before the D600 and the 6D were launched, there was a window of opportunity for Pentax to capitalise on market conditions and sway some APS-C Canikon shooters over to Pentax by introducing the first FF DSLR that isn't huge and overpriced.

Today, a lot of former Pentaxians have already switched to shooting with a D800, A7*, etc. Some more will have switched and/or got rid of their residual Pentax stuff in two more years, but I think the most substantial damage has already happened.

Then, we actually disagree: I don't think it's too late I also don't think they need a window of opportunity - if there was one important enough to have a significant effect, it would definitely be exploitable by the competition. Besides, such windows of opportunity don't necessarily have a great effect; think K10D.

Some people left, others are coming; and each new customer is a potential FF upgrader/future buyer. This is why the APS-C product range is very important for the viability of a FF line.

[mecrox]

The way they are going I think "much later" is more likely or "eventually" or just plain "maybe"

---------- Post added 31-07-14 at 08:59 AM ----------



"This is the year" seems to be the vibe every time Photokina comes around, but this year, I'd say it's now or never re' the FF. The market is moving on.

I see that Asahi man has posted over on another forum. He's usually fairly reliable (not always). In brief "Pentax fullframe Body is not to see @ Photokina this year", "The next lens should be not a 2,8 70-200. It is the telezomm till 4xxmm", "What we see this year is the new Q and maybe lenses for aps-c and ff", "The converter production got a power up now, because there are still much more orders than production numbers". So, as always, FF is still in there but not actually here in physical fact. It is just around the next corner, hang on, not long now I promise you, it really is there you must believe me, be patient, just one more corner to go, you'll see it soon, you can't give up now, look at that sign in the sky, surely you can see the shape of a full-frame camera among those clouds, behold a portent, etc etc.

[Kunzite]

We'll see more than just a Q, camera-side. But no "full frame"... yet.
Ricoh Imaging is fighting with, and working to expand their limited production capacity.

[monochrome]

As I've written, 645Z pushed many things to the side for a year.

[Kunzite]

I agree that it's probably a very important factor, but not the only one.

[Raffwal]

...In brief "Pentax fullframe Body is not to see @ Photokina this year", "The next lens should be not a 2,8 70-200. It is the telezomm till 4xxmm", "What we see this year is the new Q and maybe lenses for aps-c and ff"...

Asahi man tends to know things. I never expected a FF Pentax to arrive because we've been let down so many times and for so long. But never the less, what a f**king joke this is. Year after year, exhibition after exhibition, it's just around the corner. And so many seem to have believed it once again. Like a cat chasing its own tail, almost at reach but never quite there.

[Kunzite]

Blame Hoya.

[Raffwal]

Blame Hoya.

Well, I'm pretty sure that Ricoh could have released one at the latest this year if they were ever willing to. But instead they have decided to concentrate on 645, APS-C and toy cameras.

[monochrome]

It's Bush's fault.

[Kunzite]

Well, I'm pretty sure that Ricoh could have released one at the latest this year if they were ever willing to. But instead they have decided to concentrate on 645, APS-C and toy cameras.

You mean, they decided not to destroy themselves by making a "full frame", any "full frame", disregarding everything else?
Concentrating "on 645, APS-C and toy cameras" might be the best way to make a "full frame" product line possible. They can't do "full frame" without APS-C's support.

[lytrytyr]

So, as always, FF is still in there but not actually here in physical fact. It is just around the next corner, hang on, not long now I promise you, it really is there you must believe me, be patient, just one more corner to go, you'll see it soon, you can't give up now, look at that sign in the sky, surely you can see the shape of a full-frame camera among those clouds, behold a portent, etc etc.

[Class A]

I don't think it's too late

I don't think it is too late either.

I just meant to say that they are too late to offer the first affordable, smallish FF DSLR. That train has left.

I also don't think they need a window of opportunity

They certainly don't need it.

But if they have had the means to use it while it was there, they could have attracted a lot of new customers.

if there was one important enough to have a significant effect, it would definitely be exploitable by the competition.

Well, Canon and Nikon finally got there when they introduced the 6D and D600.

Before that, they did not have to change anything because they were both happily overcharging people with their big and expensive FF DSLRs.
Pentax could have stolen the show back then, but they didn't make a move (probably they could not), and that's why it took till the high-end APS-C DSLR market started to get pressure, until Canon and Nikon eventually decided they need to create the budget FF DSLR market.

Some people left, others are coming; and each new customer is a potential FF upgrader/future buyer.

Sure.

As I said, I don't think it is too late.

However, it seems that Pentax is way too late to the party again. And being late cost them the very prominent position they once had as a camera and lens maker.

If they really don't have more to show at Photokina this year than a new Q and some 645Z stuff, I'll start stop caring.